I do not think the "undecideds" will break for McCain

[Hokie]

I do no think that the 4-6% undecideds that most polls are showing will break for McCain so I do not see McCain getting more than 44-45% of the vote. I think that a good portion of these have already decided to vote for Bob Barr. As a matter of fact, that number could go up when lukewarm McCain supporters realize the he does not have any realistic chance of winning. This is why I see Georgia and Arizona as states in play for Obama. Most of the polls you see are structured as if this were a two way race. I have seen several polls that include Barr and Nader and they all show Obama with a larger lead. A story the media missed this year is that Ron Paul had a significant and very loyal following among Republicans. Paul's supporters were more loyal than any of the other candidate's on that side this year. These people are more likely to vote for Barr or Obama than McCain.

This is why I predict that Obama's win will be closer to 8 points than 4. His electoral vote count will be at the high end of the predictions.

This is free Hokie wisdom for any of you pundits out there. ;)