PPP Oregon Poll: Obama 57, McCain 42....Merkley is up 51-43 over Gordon Smith

[MadBadger]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/oregon-results.html

With the election still four days away, Barack Obama has already received close to the number of votes he needs to win Oregon.

59% of poll respondents said they had already filled out their ballots, and within that group Obama has a 64-35 lead. John McCain is winning 52-45 with those who have not yet voted.

Look at it this way: we polled 1,424 people in Oregon. 839 of them had already voted, and 539 of those people voted for Obama. That basically means that out of the 585 people in our sample who had yet to fill out their ballot Obama would need 174, or a little under 30% to get to 50% +1. It's safe to say he'll win Oregon in a blowout.

Oregon is a rare state where Obama even has a 51-45 lead with voters over 65. He's winning more Republicans (11%) than McCain is Democrats (9%) and has a 53-41 advantage with independents.

[sandnsea]

1. Except only 40% have actually voted

Maybe they've mailed their ballots but they aren't in yet. I certainly hope so.

[lessthanjake]

2. 40% of registered voters, not likely voters

If 40% of registered voters have voted early, then that will probably end up being a much higher percent of the actual election turnout.

[MadBadger]

3. Well they didnt say "have mailed in", they just said they have filled em out.

[sandnsea]

7. That's what I hope n/t

[FreeState]

4. OR is great as usual - and they all mail their ballots in - no polling places:) Gotta love it n/t

[MadBadger]

5. New Mexico Is Next

[PretzelWarrior]

6. 38% turned in out of all who are registered

I suspect a BLOWOUT for Obama and a reasonably comfy win for Merkley in my state.

[sandnsea]

8. 45% had returned by this time last year

I really hope the Republicans are just so disillusioned they aren't bothering.

[MadBadger]

9. Is assume there are more people registered this year though

[sandnsea]

10. So new voters aren't returning ballots?

The number of people registered don't matter. The percentage is down and the raw number of ballots returned is down. If there are more people registered, more ballots should be returned. We're running behind. Go look at the numbers. They're on the SOS elections web site.

[MadBadger]

11. I'm watching, Idk, i'm sorry. i'm soo tired right now. But I have to wait for their New Mexico #s

[sandnsea]

12. It's fine

I just hope we don't throw this away by thinking we've got it won, that's all.

[MadBadger]

13. I highly doubt it, especially not with the massive GOTV operation we have going

[sandnsea]

14. Except, not Oregon

It's not just me.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=174x6353#6368

[Hope And Change]

15. K & R!

[depakid]

16. Here's to hoping the results re: Gordo hold

Getting that POS out of the Senate would be a majot accomplishment.

My worries are on the ballot measures. Had a guy call me by mistake from the SEIU. He was calling 1st time voters to talk about the ballot races, to make sure they weren't being conned.

What he had to say wasn't reassuring. Oregonians could very well trrash the state this year in the worst of ways if the mandatory sentencing and income tax dedcution for the wealthy passes.

If they do, say hello to massive cutbacks and potential bankruptcy.

[book_worm]

17. Add Oregon to the list of states where Obama is likely to win in a landslide