Larry Sabato's 2008 Election Projections: Obama 364/McCain 174

[Douglas Carpenter]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/the_last_word_almost






Complete details:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/the_last_word_almost

[Stephist]

1. I'll take it!

:-)

[Two Sheds]

2. What is Sabato's political affiliation?

I can't remember.

[Douglas Carpenter]

3. he is a Democrat - but if one looks at his record, his predictions over the years

he has approached things with dispassion. I remember very well in 2004 he predicted a toss-up that was too close to call.

His record on accuracy of prediction of outcome of races has been impressive.

Predictions

In 2004, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball website correctly predicted the outcome of 525 of the 530 political races, missing only one House race, one Senate race, one governor's race, and two states in the Electoral College.<6>

In August 2006, Sabato's Crystal Ball predicted that the Democrats would gain 29 seats in the House of Representatives and 6 seats in the Senate, which would provide them with a majority in both houses. Sabato's prediction that the Democrats would win back both houses proved correct; his Senate predictions were exactly correct and in the House, Democrats gained 29 seats on election night, the precise total predicted by the Crystal Ball (Democrats would go on to pick up a 30th seat in the December 12, 2006 run-off in Texas' 23rd district).<7>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Sabato

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[Two Sheds]

4. thank you for your very complete answer

nm

[victoryparty]

5. looks great! I'm with Larry

[New Dawn]

6. Is he counting Lieberman as a Republican or Democrat for the future Senate?

Obviously, Lieberman will be in the Republican minority caucus.

[Douglas Carpenter]

7. I doubt that very much

As absolutely awful as Sen. Lieberman is - and even in spite of the fact that like Sen. Evan Bayh, Sen. Lieberman is a foreign policy neoconservative - In spite of Sen. Lieberman's treachery - Sen. Lieberman is nonetheless a Democrat who has voted on party line votes with the Democratic Party and against the Republican Party at least 80% of the time.

On purely domestic issue, his record is essentially only somewhat less liberal as Sen. Obama or Sen. Clinton.

I absoluely loathe the man, especially because of his extremist-fringe foreign policy views. But on purely domestic issues he is still essentially a center-left Democrat:


http://www.votesmart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=53278

Not one single Republican member of Congress has scores anywhere near as liberal as these:

2007 In 2007 NARAL Pro-Choice America gave Senator Lieberman a grade of 100.

2007 Senator Lieberman supported the interests of the Americans for Democratic Action 70 percent in 2007.

2007 Senator Lieberman supported the interests of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People 87 percent in 2007.

2007-2008 In 2007-2008 National Education Association gave Senator Lieberman a grade of A.

2007 Senator Lieberman supported the interests of the American Conservative Union 8 percent in 2007.

2007 Senator Lieberman supported the interests of the AFL-CIO 84 percent in 2007.

[yourguide]

11. based on his numbers

pick up of 7 or 8 equaling 58 or 59 means he's starting at 51 which means he's including LIEberman.

[Douglas Carpenter]

8. one kick for the next shift

[underpants]

9. I duped you on this

sorry

:kick:

[begin_within]

10. Agree totally. Obama/Biden 364 it will be.