Louisiana a "dead heat"???

[BigBearJohn]

The political pundits have obsessed about Pennsylvania, because the McCain campaign told them to obsess about Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, the gap closed in Arizona, McCain's home state.

Now, a poll in another unlikely state shows a very close race -- Louisiana according to a poll from Loyola University for WAFB News:
While most polls show Democrat Barack Obama with a lead against Republican John McCain nationally, that's not the case in Louisiana, according to our poll. It shows the race is a dead heat in Louisiana, with 43% of voters saying they'll vote for McCain and 40% supporting Obama. With our poll's margin of error of plus or minus four-point-five percent, the results show a statistical dead heat.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (LOUISIANA)

MCCAIN: 43%
OBAMA: 40%
UNDECIDED/WON'T SAY: 17%
MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 4.5%

The poll shows 93 percent of African American voters in Louisiana have a favorable opinion of Obama. "93 percent is almost total. It's unbelievable," Renwick said. "It's one of the highest percentages I've ever seen."
That's also pretty high undecided for five days out. There hasn't been a lot of polling in the state, but other earlier polls haven't shown the race this close (or with that many undecideds.)

http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/louisiana-dead-heat.html

[Occam Bandage]

1. I think this is probably on outlier, but LA would be a shocker pickup.

[AtomicKitten]

2. Holy shit! Obama is tearing up the electoral map.

:bounce:

[RL3AO]

3. We rip the other side for going crazy over one poll.

We shouldn't do the same. Three polls in the last week have shown Louisiana 3, 12, and 16. Lets wait for more polls before getting too excited.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

4. Louisiana has a large percentage of black voters

If everybody who favors Obama gets out and votes, all things are possible.

[4lbs]

5. The other 7% of Louisiana African-Americans actually think McCain and Bush are better?!?!?

:crazy:

[Bitter_Clinger]

9. Well there ARE some wealthy...

African Americans who believe that McCain would be a safer bet for their pocket book. My boss is one who has bought into that lie as have a couple of his top associates.

[arcos]

12. Reverse Bradley...

According to several state polls, a disproportionate number of African Americans are claiming to be undecided to pollsters.

[Two Sheds]

6. My home state ( I usually only think of my self as having a hometown- NOLA)...

has the second or third highest African-American population in the US. Mississippi is first, LA or South Carolina is second. We should be up in the air. It's good to see we are.
We're going red, though. But I'm proud that it will be closer than normal. I'm happy for the young men and women I'm in grad school with. They are walking on clouds, never dreaming that this would happen in their lifetimes. If we close the deal Tuesday, it will only get better for them.

[FKA MNChimpH8R]

7. I don't think any Southern state with a large AA population

is out of play. At the very least, Obama is going to put up numbers that scare the fertilizer out of the Repukes because of his nearly monolithic AA support. As one of the MSNBC talking heads (not hosts) pointed out tonight, the Repukes are in a demographic death spiral. The country is becoming younger, browner and more tolerant. The Repigs remain nearly lily white. Not a good plan for long term survival.

[agentS]

8. You know McCain has problems

When he's falling behind in LOUISIANA!

Rachel Maddow had that gridiron politics section last night.

IF DC is Obama's 1yard line and UT is McCain's, then LA would be McCain's 15 yard line. AZ is his 10 yard line. If a candidate has to defend his red zone then he is screwed.

[Maiden England]

10. Obama is stomping McSame in my unofficial poll of bumper stickers

So far we have 9 Obama, to 6 McSame in bumper stickers

9 Obama, to 4 McSame in yard signs

that I've seen around LA (from my home in Lafayette).

And yes, that really is all I've seen this entire election season. I've never ever seen this few election signs.

[expatriate]

11. Many people have not forgotten Katrina

and people being left to die for lack of water by our Republican President.

There might not be enough votes to deliver Louisiana, but there are a lot of damned angry people there.

[ThePhilosopher04]

13. I wouldn't be shocked at all...

if Louisiana winds up in the mid single digits or Obama wins it outright. I live in a red part of the state (Hammond) and I personally know of several white conservative males who are voting for Obama, but would be afraid to admit it in public. African Americans will turn out in force and if he can win 35% of the white vote, which is possible, it'll go down to the wire.

[ThePhilosopher04]

14. Quick math on the early voting...

looks like 266,880 people voted early in Louisiana...the breakdown is 60.8% white, 36.3% black, 2.9% other...using the WWL poll as a guide, one can assume roughly 93,000 African Americans, 34,000 whites, and 5,000 "other" voted for Obama...that would make it roughly 51-49 McCain during early voting if you assume Obama is only getting 21% of the white vote...my guess is that total is a little higher than that...if the trend continues on Election Day, things could get very interesting.