Anyone know why Obama is tanking on Intrade?

[Drunken Irishman]

Since the start of yesterday, he's gone from trading at 88 to now trading at 83 and he continues to drop.

McCain has gone from trading at 14 to now 16.5.

What the hell is going on? I know he still has a huge lead, but a lot of people are dumping Obama right now and it's been like this for the past 24 hours.

[rucky]

1. Last two times that happened...

it was because some lone numbskull sank $100k+ for McCain

[progressivebydesign]

2. Oh God.. do we have to go through this every time some McCainer manipulates Intrade?

The mysterious dumping of Obama futures...

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Yeah, I guess we do.

I read about that, but I didn't know it happened over a day and a half span. I just thought he dropped it all at once, the numbers dropped, but then rose again. This has been a steady decline since early yesterday morning.

[progressivebydesign]

31. Just remember, in politics, nothing is as it seems. They're screwing with it. n/t

[Zuiderelle]

3. It's the rich asshole again. I don't really understand the motivation.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. McInternalMemo.

:rofl:

[Fire_brand]

6. . . .

[Hamlette]

7. perfect response Fire n/t

[okieinpain]

11. never understood why that show didn't get better ratings.

[leftynyc]

36. Hope you don't mind if I borrow that

It's perfect.

[Fire_brand]

37. not at all, I borrowed it myself n/t

[psychmommy]

40. i loved that show. i am certainly going to miss it.

bunk, kima and the congressman-sheeeeeeeyit. hahaha and of course mcnulty.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

8. Oh noes... intrade is tightening!!!1!1!! This is hugh!!!!!!11!!1

[Drunken Irishman]

10. ?

[thesubstanceofdreams]

12. Ironic post

intrade is given too much credit while it is easy to manipulate. And still 85/15 is not bad. "Tanking" would be if it was 50/50 or something.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. I think it's tanking compared to his past numbers.

I'm not worried, just wondering why there has been such a sharp decline over the past 48 hours.

[musicblind]

19. Because you can't ever ask an honest question without being accused of not supporting Obama

or being accused of being a "concern troll" by the DU thought police.

Lovely huh?

Though, I don't think there is anything to worry about. The fluctuations are small. It wont go below 70%... which is still a major major lead. Like other's said. It could just be someone trying to manipulate the market.

[Bicoastal]

9. With the day coming closer, I think investors finally decided the race IS, indeed tightening...

...Intrade's just following the trend.

But 83% to 16.5%? Five days before election? Are you really worried about this? We were 88 two days ago, now we're 83. At this rate, by the time we get to election day, we'll be around (gasp) 70%---and that's assuming we don't shoot back up again.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. I never said I was worried.

Just wondering what the hell was going on.

[Bicoastal]

17. It's projection--you saw my latest PENNSYLVANIA MASON DIXON post.

Nothing wrong with being a little jittery 5 days before a blowout.

[rvablue]

15. It's well -documented that McCain is a gambling freak

and we all know he has enough of Cindy's cash to throw around. Maybe he's the one manipulating InTrade with huge bets on his behalf.

I wrote this to be funny, but after writing it down, it doesn't seem that it is that far from a real possibility????????????

[FreeState]

16. More than likely its GOP persons thinking its tightening

due to talking heads GOP slanted polls and they are hoping to make some money - but I would not worry - 70% is the magic number and I dont see it sinking that low

[jenmito]

18. Probably due to the narrative that McCain still has an outside chance, along with

the McCain "internal poll" memo and now that ONE Mason-Dixon poll.

[Divine Discontent]

20. word broke

that Obama rejects proposition H8 in Cali! It's all over NOESSSSSS.

But seriously, surely you agree the race, as all do in the final days, tighten a bit - I remember Dukakis being down like 10 and feeling it was over, then getting to within 4 or 5 by election day b/c it tightened and he started hitting back finally (he was so nice, too nice for the sleezy bush), and the same happened in every election since. I wouldn't worry unless it drops to 69...

[grantcart]

21. lol people are taking their profits and running If I bought at 40 and could get

83 I would sell now. Also very few people are going to buy anything higher than 80 so any profit taker will have to go down a bit to take their money.

[Skinner]

23. Ding! Ding! Ding!

We have a winner.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

25. Why Though? Aren't They Guaranteed Even More On Election Day When Their Stock Goes Up To 100?

Is the claim that some get cold feet past a low 80 somethin % probably that Obama will be elected? I'm 100% confident at this point. It would seem that even buying in at 90 right now would still yield a 10% return in less than just one week. Am I missing something here?

[grantcart]

26. from a pure risk and reward point of view as an investor I would rather

have $ 5,000 in my hand today than $ 6,000 next week even if I thought that it was 95% in the bag, especially if I had bought it very early when it was $ 10 a share.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

28. I Just Have To Find A Way To Get Money Deposited In Time.

I hate havin to go through this pain in the ass process now of figuring out how to do a damn wire transfer.

[Skinner]

29. I think what you are missing is that people have different tolerances for risk.

Despite what you may believe, the chance of Obama winning is not 100%. (According to Intrade, it's somewhere around 85%.)

For some people who bought at 50, it might make more sense to take advantage of a 100% chance of increasing your money by 70% (by selling now) compared to a 85% chance of doubling your money (by waiting until November 4).

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

32. Fair Enough. I See Totally What You And Grantcart Are Saying. I Would Still Totally Buy Every

share up below 90 that I could right now though, if only I can figure out how to get funds in there on time!

No doubt in my mind Obama's winning this. Not out of hope, but out of every possible logical scenario I can think of.

And if by some misfortune of misfortune beyond comprehensive thought he did end up losing, my problems and focus would be on far more important things than the few grand I lost. But a quick profit on top of seeing the greatest candidate of our generation elected? What can be cooler than that? I've gotta get some money into an account there pronto! lol

[Awsi Dooger]

38. That's not what is going on

Gamblers do not play scared. You don't qualify as a gambler if you surrender an advantage position like this by buying back. grantcart might have a point if this went from 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other way. At that point it's still gambling and people will settle for guaranteed small profit. But at 85/15 the people who have Obama at low prices will ride it out.

This is what gamblers do, as a rule: Try to make smart bets every time. As long as you continually get the best of the price, regardless of your subjective opinion, you'll come out ahead in the long run. Wagering on McCain at this price is not good value. There may be a handful of novice investors who indeed are bailing out, but not many. I know plenty of people with Obama in the 50% range, and not a single one has mentioned playing McCain as a hedge.

According to the Intrade forum, the "rogue trader" is back. That's what you always want to do when there's a question about Intrade movement, check their forum where the sharp Intraders hang out. Too often this cycle we've seen blatant guesswork from non gamblers, like Nate Silver:

http://www.intrade.com/forum/

30/10/2008 14:43:45
Subject: Rogue trader is back!!!!
*****
silver_surfer
*****
"Rogue trader is back and this time is posting limit orders instead of executing market orders. McCain might hit 20, but this doesn't change the fact that McCain has little chance of winning. Free money here."

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

22. GODDAMMIT I WANT IN!!!!!!! My Credit Card AND Debit Card Won't Work!!!

How the fuck do I get in there in time? So basically, from all that I know, I'm GUARANTEED to make money next tuesday if Obama wins right? Fuckin NO BRAINER to me. But I can't get funds in there. AAAAAAARRRRRGGHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

[TheCoxwain]

24. PEOPLE ARE TAKING PROFITS .... USE THE FOLLOWING LOGIC

Say you bought a bunch of Obama Stock at say $50) and we are now close to election.. The stock is trading at $85. What are your options.


Sell now & take a profit of $35 ( 100% Probability)


Wait after the election ( let us assume that chances of Obama win is subjectively at 95%)

then You make a profit of $50 (probability of 95%)
you Lose $50 (probability of 5%)


So an investor with a risk averse behavior will take take his profits.

We can actually define different Utility curves that model the risk preference of the investor and can determine an equivalence point where the investor is indifferent to selling and holding on ...

[grantcart]

27. and of course a lot of people bought it when it was $ 10 a share.

[jenmito]

30. He's up to 84.9 right now. n/t

[DCBob]

33. Going from 88-83 is not exactly tanking. Anything over 80% is essentially a lock to these gamblers.

Those investing in McCain now are betting on a miracle -- probably emboldened a bit by the McCain campaign's 3 tiered "winning" strategy. Yes, there are a few idiots that may believe that nonsense.

[Godhumor]

34. From the CEO's own blog

"The trading that caused the unusual price movements and discrepancies was principally due to a single "institutional" member on Intrade. We have been in contact with the firm on a number of occasions. I have spoken to those involved personally."

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/misc/blog/#jd_3

Click on the graphs next to Obama and McCain and change it to "time and sales". You can see the sales are coming so close to each other that what the blog earlier covered is happening right now.

[Zynx]

35. Way way way too squeamish. I'm glad you don't get paid.

[RagAss]

39. They're cashing out ,Irish...I would too.