Latest Voter Registration TotalsLatest Early Voting ResultsLatest Swing State GraphsLatest Demographics and Crosstab Graphs1. ANALYSISThirty-one new state polls were released yesterday, and Barack Obama’s record for this set of polls is 26-5. Of the polls released, 23 are for swing states, 5 are for blue states, and 3 are for red states. Obama’s popular vote lead is still holding around 10.5 million over John McCain. The only state to switch columns today is New Hampshire, which is now polling on average with an Obama lead of +11.5. It moves from the Weak Obama to the Strong Obama column today. With only 5 days remaining, John McCain now needs to find more than 2 million votes
every day between now and Tuesday to catch up to Obama.
On the flip side, Missouri is looking very close at the moment, as Obama’s lead there diminishes on average to +0.3. It’s not unusual for Democratic Presidential candidates to do well in Missouri. In the past three election cycles, Clinton, Gore and Kerry each garnered at least 46% of the Missouri vote. But if there is no viable third party candidate, the republican candidate usually performs a little bit better, at or around 50%. The key for Democrats to winning in Missouri is the McCaskill plan: Win by large margins in the metropolitan areas of St. Louis and Kansas City, and keep it close around Springfield. Since voter registration is up by 15% this year over 2004, and much of this increase has been seen in St. Louis County, Obama still has a good chance of winning in Missouri on Tuesday.
(The “Votemaster” at Electoral-Vote.com must be sleeping in again today)
2. NEW STATE POLLSScale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)
Alaska
Obama 41, McCain 57 (Rasmussen, 10/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Arizona
Obama 44, McCain 46 (AZ State University, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1029 RV)
Colorado
Obama 50, McCain 41, Barr 1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 3.9, 626 LV)
Colorado
Obama 53, McCain 45 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 774 LV)
Delaware
Obama 63, McCain 33 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.8, 657 LV)
Florida
Obama 45, McCain 43, B1, N1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida
Obama 47, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac University, 10/26, +/- 2.6, 1435 LV)
Florida
Obama 51, McCain 47 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 747 LV)
Georgia
Obama 47, McCain 52 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 690 LV)
Kansas
Obama 37, McCain 58 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.9, 626 LV)
Michigan
Obama 53, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Minnesota
Obama 55, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Missouri
Obama 48, McCain 50 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 825 LV)
Nevada
Obama 52, McCain 40, B1, N1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 3.9, 628 LV)
New Hampshire
Obama 55, McCain 37, Nader 1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire
Obama 58, McCain 34 (University of NH, 10/28, +/- 3.8, 661 LV)
New Mexico
Obama 54, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New York
Obama 62, McCain 33 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.8, 633 LV)
North Carolina
Obama 48, McCain 46, Barr 0 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 601 LV)
Ohio
Obama 48, McCain 41 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 607 LV)
Ohio
Obama 48, McCain 45 (Marist College, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 661 LV)
Ohio
Obama 51, McCain 42 (Quinnipiac University, 10/26, +/- 2.6, 1425 LV)
Pennsylvania
Obama 52, McCain 40, B1, N1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 607 LV)
Pennsylvania
Obama 53, McCain 40 (Franklin & Marshall, 10/24, +/- 4.2, 560 LV)
Pennsylvania
Obama 53, McCain 41 (Quinnipiac University, 10/26, +/- 2.7, 1364 LV)
Pennsylvania
Obama 55, McCain 41 (Marist College, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 713 LV)
Virginia
Obama 49, McCain 42, N1, M1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia
Obama 53, McCain 44 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 721 LV)
Washington
Obama 54, McCain 42 (Strategic Vision, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Washington
Obama 56, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 630 LV)
Wisconsin
Obama 53, McCain 42 (Research 2000, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information 7. LINKS AND SOURCESYesterday’s WidgetFull Weekly TrackingSaturday Data DumpPast editions of THE MATHSources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue DudesEARLY VOTING RESULTS.