Mason Dixon PA Poll: O+4

[BzaDem]

Just reported on Morning Joe by Andrea Mitchell. Chuck Todd says its 47-43.

I'm curious to see the dates on this poll. If they are Oct 23-28, they are the same as today's CNN/Time poll, which as O+12 (which means its probably an outlier).

[jefferson_dem]

1. Outlier.

Five polls came out just yesterday that showed Barack with a double-digit edge in PA.

M-D inflates Repug digits. Always has.

[Hope And Change]

2. Mason Dixon is a Republican leaning polling firm.

[dennis4868]

10. this is from their website:

Mason-Dixon is not a party-affiliated or ideology-oriented polling firm. You can rest assured that all poll results are backed by our reputation for objectivity and independence.

[Teaser]

13. yes, but they have a Republican "house effect"

that is their results lean Republican when compared to other polls. It is separate from their partisan alignment.

[Hope And Change]

24. LOL.Do you really think I believe in that BS?Look at the other polls..

and compare them with Msaon-Dixon and you will understand what I`m talking about.Mason-Dixon had Obama up by 2 points in VA but nearly every other poll shows Obama up by 6-10 points.VA is not the only example I could give you more examples where Mason-Dixon show Obama and McCain closer in the polls than other polls.As I said before and I will say it again: Mason-Dixon is a Republican leaning polling firm!

[WallStreetNobody]

3. This is just for PA? Where did Mason Dixon last have them?

[endthewar]

19. +2 Obama, but it was from mid-September when things were closer

People need to learn to look at poll internals and not just the poll results. Or at least compare the "likely" to "registered" results.

[Perky]

4. Not to worry M-D is a solid but they are usualy way to conservative in their poling methods

and by that I mean cautious,


This will not be corroborated

[Pirate Smile]

5. Outlier compared to the other dozen PA polls but they need a story line for the next couple of days

and here it is.

I'd like to see the internals compared to all the others. You can get any results you want if you weight the poll "right".

MD polls always seem to be skewed strongly for the Republicans.

[dennis4868]

6. I am sure they had a smile on their...

face when they reported it....

[Schulzz]

7. I'm not worried about Mason-Dixon polls.

They have every state closer than other polls. They even had MI tied a week before McCain pulled out. A new CNN poll has Obama up 12.

[afridemo]

17. I checked at RCP and I found -

the last time Mason Dixon/NBC poll was

09/16 - 09/18 625 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2,


so by their poll Obama has actually extended his lead

[Thrill]

8. As usual Chuck Todd and NBC are the only ones with a poll that close

Every Poll they come out with is closer than anyone else. They try harder than anyone to keep that narrative going

[dennis4868]

9. Mason-Dixon also says that...

Obama has only a 2 point lead in VA....

[fujiyama]

22. And they were pretty late to get to that

They had McCain up in VA while others were showing an Obama lead.

M-D is a good polling firm, but generally their polls lean right. Maybe a closer lead in PA is closer to the truth assuming a conservative turnout model.

But watching the early turnout in Southern states among African Americans, I think those models won't ultimately be applicable. Obama will take the state by at least five points. I just don't see how he ends up possibly losing PA, while taking VA...

Worst case scenario - Obama has a mid single digit lead in PA. I don't think anyone can get complacent - and I sincerely doubt ANY Obama supporter is in PA. The crowds there are pumped enough to see him in pouring rain.

[Zynx]

23. They have some 'splainin to do on one point:

How can they show Obama tied in NC, basically tied in MT, up in VA, and barely up in PA? Those don't jive. Or do they just show everything to be really close?

[EmilyAnne]

11. Well, that's it. No more phone banking for me.

:sarcasm:

[ps1074]

12. freepers will go mental

26/10 Temple Univ - O50 M41
26/10 Franklin & Marshall O53 M40
26/10 AP O52 M40
26/10 Quinnipiac O53 M41
27/10 Morning Call O53 M41
27/10 InAdv/PollPosition O51 M42
27/10 Marist O53 M41
27/10 Rasmussen O53 M46
Average - Obama +11

[jefferson_dem]

16. And CNN's PA poll from today shows Obama +12.

M-D? :spray:

[Proud Liberal Dem]

14. Did anybody check to see how close the M-D polls are to

the McCain campaign's "internal polling"?

[cobalt1999]

15. It's good when even the most conservative poll shows an Obama lead.

That's great news.

[dennis4868]

18. ANYONE KNOW WHAT...

the polls numbers were for Mason Dixon the last time they came out with a PA poll?

[Schulzz]

20. Obama +2

But that was 6 weeks ago.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/22/1431785.aspx

[Zynx]

21. They had Obama up by 2 in September.

[endthewar]

25. O-46, M-44. 9/16-9/18.

From pollster.com

[aaaaaa5a]

26. Hmm..... so that means in their own poll the movement was towards Obama! n/t

[book_worm]

27. Mason/Dixon is always higher for the GOP, I take this with a grain of salt

[bklyngrl60]

28. I'm a Chicken Little and I'm not particularly worried by this..

I'm listening to Morning Blow (only out of habit at this point) - and if they'd be all over this if they thought it really had some weight. They mentioned it - and basically shrugged.

I went on the website - I'd like to see their historic numbers from past elections - but you have to pay for it from their website. If anyone wants to check their historic accuracy in PA?

[Kahuna]

29. The dates on those polls are from Oct 20 - 21. They were outliers..

even at that time.
It's pathetic that MSNBC is touting those polls when their own website says they were conducted Oct 20 to 21, and was posted on the MSNBC website on Oct. 22. Sheesh.




http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/22/1579848.aspx
From NBC's Mark Murray

Mason-Dixon has released new polls for the battlegrounds of Florida and Virginia -- and they show tight races in these two states.

In Florida, McCain holds a narrow one-point lead over Obama, 46%-45%. Earlier this month, another Mason-Dixon poll showed Obama with a two-point advantage in the Sunshine State, 48%-46%.

And in Virginia, Obama is up two points, 47%-45%; earlier this month, McCain was ahead by three in the state, 48%-45%.

The polls were conducted in each state from October 20-21, and they both have margin of errors of plus-minus 4%.

[Jennicut]

31. Obama is ahead in FL in almost every other poll and with a wider margin in VA

in almost every poll. They must weight Dems lower then most other polls or Rethugs higher.

[woolldog]

43. surveyusa had Jim Webb up 8 points in VA right before the election

and he barely won.

[nickn777]

30. Mason-Dixon = junk "feel good" Republican polls, pure crap

they are terrible and more often than not represent the outlier poll....nevertheless, Suck Todd will be pimping this poll tonite and throw PA back to "tossup"...LOL

You can read about the sizeable "Bush" advantage these polls had in 2004:

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/donkeyrising/2004/10/about_those_masondixon_polls.html

[ErinBerin84]

32. not to discount any poll that I don't like....

but Mason Dixon polls are notoriously um, bullshit. I remember the MD Michigan poll being the only one that showed Obama and McCain tied for weeks when other polls showed Obama pulling away, and Chuck Todd would always show the Mason Dixon one and insist that he didn't believe the others...and then he seemed shocked when McCain pulled out of Michigan.

[ROh70]

33. Key question - what is the MD spread for all registered voters?

[Schulzz]

34. Likely voters. nt

[Joe the Revelator]

35. I like M-D, but look at their VA poll...they poll EVERYTHING closer then other polls

Having a lead in the MD poll, no matter how large is a GOOD thing.

[Alter Ego]

36. Outlier.

17 of the last 23 polls have had us up by much more than that. And Mason/Dixon has a Republican lean.

Also, CNN/Time just released a poll that gave PA to us 55-43.

[Dawgs]

37. Most inconsistent pollster in this GE.

Mason has been consistently off from the others.

[Azathoth]

38. Mason-Dixon was *by far* the most accurate state pollster in 2004

Let's hope their record this year is not as stirling...

[demo dutch]

44. Good Obama still ahead, since Mason-Dixon is very conservative

[BluegrassDem]

39. Remember, M-D had Michigan tied 44%-44% and Gramps pulled out of it the next day!

So that just goes to show you about their polls. Even Gramps doesn't believe them.

[DeepBlueDem]

40. Mason Dixion is the most erratic pollster out there

MD had michigan 44-44, and McNuts pulled out the next day

Mason-Dixon is not a consistent pollster. They poll here one day. then they come back 3 months later with 15 percent undecides. WTF!

[stoge18]

41. I'd like to hear what Nate has to say about this

I don't know about you guys, but I'm not an expert pollster. I hope Nate Silver offers up some commentary relevant to this outlier. He has M-D near the top of his list on his Pollster Rankings page.

[mvd]

42. But it's a different kind of election season than 2004

M-D has been more erratic this year and outlier-prone, probably because the Democrat is ahead in the race.

[stoge18]

45. Are Nate's rankings based on 2004 outcomes?

I must have misread or misinterpreted. At any rate, I love and trust his commentary.

I'm in PA and am confident it will be bright blue on election night.

[mvd]

46. I think so. Not positive, though

I agree - I think in PA we likely have a solid 7-10 point lead. :hi: