Obama and the Youth Vote- Good News!!

[PA Democrat]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/obama-and-youth-vote.html

<snip>


We've polled (under 30 year-olds) in six battleground states over the last week and asked respondents who they supported for President in 2004 and who they're supporting this year. There's been a 17 point average shift in a Democratic direction among voters under 30:


North Carolina
Kerry 54-44
Obama 63-33
D+20

West Virginia
Bush 44-40
Obama 46-41
D+9

Indiana
Bush 42-31
Obama 54-40
D+25

Florida
Kerry 46-33
Obama 59-37
D+9

Ohio
Kerry 48-35
Obama 64-28
D+23

Virginia
Kerry 42-36
Obama 56-34
D+16

Average
Kerry 44-39
Obama 57-35
D+17


So let's say that young voters again comprise 17% of the vote nationally, as they did in 2004. A 17 point gain with 17 percent of the electorate is a three point gain for Obama, enough to make up the margin by which the Republicans won the popular vote nationally right there. Add in your increase in turnout from black voters and the white voters of all ages who chose Bush in 2004 but are going for Obama this year and you have the equation for a strong Democratic victory.