Matthews -- off the record briefing ---

[grantcart]

Chris Matthews was straining under great restraint to not relay what NBC pollsters had been telling their key people in preparation for election night.


What he did say is that they are expecting atleast 130 million votes or even more . . and that it wasn't going to be a cliff hanger type election.


With his giddiness under bear restraint he went on to say that it was going to be an 'election of a lifetime' and that everyone was voting.


He went on to also say that all the first time and lapsed voters that were voting were favoring Obama by 40 points.




My 2 cents

Besides all of the battleground states CO NV IA VA OH MO PA FL that Obama is showing leads there are the long shots that are now looking very good IN NC.

Beyond that there are the very long shots like GA MT AZ that now look possible.

But if you look at the impossible states there are some states like LA where the early voting is heavily Democratic and if the Republicans get despirited and stay home could also go Obama--


edited to add early voting link http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. The 4th can't come fast enough for me. Independence day in November, as it were

[tosh]

3. That's so nice, GPV. Independence day in November.

[whitewomenforobama]

12. Yes! I love that! nt

[Cha]

28. That's right! An extract trine to

our birthday in July:patriot: :bounce: :patriot:

[H2O Man]

2. He knows.

We do, too.

[AspenRose]

29. In our heart of hearts, we certainly do.

And so do the extreme right republicans, which explains their increasingly dangerous and bizarre behavior.

Gotta keep working, though.

[gabeana]

4. Thats good to hear

because I went to Politico they had a quote from Chuck Todd that it would be a bigger upset for Obama to win by 10 than McCain to win by 1. That doesn't make sense considering Obama's lead through RCP is closer to 10 than McCain by 1, whatever

[lob1]

5. That's great news.

I'll be sure to watch Matthews rerun at 4, here in L.A.

[blitzen]

6. Glad you mentioned Louisiana...The ground-game here is tremendous...

I've been getting calls from the local Obama headquarters daily. They are very well-organized and working their butts off.

[grantcart]

18. I see these numbers and i want set off fire works

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Dem 58.4%
Rep 28.5%
No/Oth 13.1%
Race
White 61.1%
Black 36.0%
Other 2.9%


If you maintain 36% AA vote that means that you only have to get 26% of the white vote to take the state.

[blitzen]

23. A guy from the national campaign told us that if Obama can get...

AA vote to be 31% of the total in Louisiana, they figured he could win. That was back in July. That being said, I'm not sure that Obama can pull off 26% of the white vote down here--he may get close, though.

[Jennicut]

7. Tweety is excited. I like seeing him come home to the Dems.

I do like Chris but disappointed in him in the past. Now, he seems like he has found the old Chris again. Plus he is a fellow diabetic like me. Tweety, remember to monitor your sugar election night. He has a tendency to get manic and that is a sign your sugar is way high.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. Do you know what turn-out % 130 million is?

The McCain pollster-psycho today was saying turn-out will be 80-90%, which struck me as absurd.

[Jennicut]

11. Bush Kerry was about 120 million.

[abumbyanyothername]

21. Nate (538)

has a pretty good article about how turnout is basically up for dems and down for pubs.

[DrToast]

9. He didn't want to say what they told him?

But then he goes on to say it's going to be a landslide? What else could they have possibly told him?

[Arugula Latte]

17. It will be a landslide ... a write-in landslide ... for Ron Paul!

You heard it here first.

[grantcart]

27. the projections on AA vote in the south are going to be huge

my guess that even LA and Ga are going to go for Obama - AA early voting 35% of the total -- you only need another lousy 15 points to win. only 25% of all the whites. if these Early voting trends continue - and NC has almost half of 2004 votes in then it will be a landslide that has not been seen in 40 years.

McCain is now in danger of not carrying his home state and not carrying the south.

[tulsakatz]

10. Chris recently admitted that he's an Obama fan........

...so if he's already giddy, it must be pretty good news!!!

Although I am glad to hear them say that it won't be close........that's what I've been hoping for.

[eshfemme]

15. "To hell with my critics!"

You've gotta love that Chris Matthews is so bombastic that he can't restrain his excitement. He's almost lovable like that even when he's being awful. Maybe that's why I call him Tweety with the utmost affection.

[BlueIdaho]

13. This election is in our hands now.

We are the ground game Barack is counting on. We need to work like the devil - make calls, knock on doors, donate money, and drive folks to the polls. The future of America is in our hands. Forget the pundits, the polls, and the propaganda - this is OUR election.

Its now or never gang.

YES WE CAN

[Laelth]

14. Very interesting. n/t

The United States is a LIBERAL Country.

:dem:

-Laelth

[abumbyanyothername]

16. The Road to 446

ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ

MD, DC, DE, VA, WV, NC

GA, FL

PA, OH, MI, IN, IL, MO, IA, WI, MN, ND, NE(2)(Omaha)

TX, NM, AZ, NV, MT

CA, OR, WA, HI

I think that's all.

Edited to add MO and WV.

[grantcart]

19. I think he is going to 400

[PCIntern]

25. TX?

Why not UT as well then...?

[Virginia Dare]

20. Looks like a Reaganesque landslide...

we're taking our government back! :woohoo:

[sufrommich]

22. If it's not going to be a cliffhanger than Obama wins! nt

[The_Casual_Observer]

24. 40 pts!

That's the kind of disgrace that fools like mccant & palin deserve.

[DainBramaged]

26. We got this