I believe McCain is doing worse than the polls reflect.

[ProSense]

If there is massive voter turnout, I expect a huge popular vote victory for Obama that may or may not be reflected in the electoral college (would be a sweet thing if it is).

Two things will not be a factor this year: vote suppression (Ohio and other states are already ahead of this) and electronic fraud. The GOP fraud machine has been damaged.

[Bicoastal]

1. PEW, one of the few polls that takes cell phones into account...

...has him up by the largest margin. Coincidence?

[HughMoran]

6. This is my reasoning too

A lot more cell phone exclusive people since 2004 - an AWFUL LOT!

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

2. Same here.

The polls just indicate random opinion.

What really matters is how voters organize on a local precinct level. And I bet Obama is simply crushing McCain everywhere.

Just look at the enthusiasm numbers.

[brazos121200]

3. I think voter suppression will be a factor in Florida, Missouri,

and Colorado. Otherwise it should not be a major factor in the election. Even if McCain carries all three of these states Obama should win handily, and Obama is way ahead in Colorado. Ohio is in control of the Democrats and without Ohio, McCain can't win.

[no_hypocrisy]

4. That's okay. McCain likes being the underdog.

[ProSense]

5. LOL! n/t

[Schulzz]

7. He is doing really BAD in the state polls, but you are probably right about the national polls. nt