This day in 2004.... This day in 2008

[scheming daemons]

North Carolina
2004: Bush 52, Kerry 43 (-9)
2008: Obama 49, McCain 47 (+2)

2004 results: Bush 56, Kerry 44 (-12)


Virginia
2004: Bush 50, Kerry 44 (-6)
2008: Obama 51, McCain 44 (+7)

2004 results: Bush 54, Kerry 46 (-8)


Florida
2004: Bush 48, Kerry 47 (-1)
2008: Obama 48, McCain 45 (+3)

2004 results: Bush 52, Kerry 47 (-5)


Pennsylvania
2004: Bush 47, Kerry 47 (even)
2008: Obama 52, McCain 41 (+11)

2004 results: Kerry 51, Bush 48 (+3)


Ohio
2004: Kerry 47, Bush 44 (+3)
2008: Obama 50, McCain 43 (+7)

2004 results: Bush 51, Kerry 49 (-2)


Colorado
2004: Kerry 49, Bush 45 (+4)
2008: Obama 51, McCain 44 (+7)

2004 results: Bush 52, Kerry 47 (-5)


Go here for the links:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct29.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/


The bottom line.... Obama is doing much better than Kerry is all the swing states. Much better. Go look at Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa too. Same thing.

[politicasista]

1. Comparing Kerry and Obama's campaigns are like

comparing apples and oranges. The mood of the country is far, far different than it was in 2004 compared to now (post Katrina, post Iraq Civil War, post economy in the toilet, etc). The country is in deep poo and the media and Democrats are no longer afraid of Bush and Rove. Plus, Obama has Dean's 50 state strategy while Kerry was stuck with McAuliffe's lousy infrastructure.

[On the Road]

2. If the Election Deviates from the Polls in the Same Way,

that suggests the following results:

NC: McCain by 1
VA: Obama by 5
FL: McCain by 1
PA: Obama by 14
OH: Obama by 2
CO: McCain by 2

Not the most optimistic outcome, and not my own expectations, but I'll take it. It's a sure win.

Example: In 2004, NC polls were Bush by 9 and the results were Bush by 12, so Kerry underperformed in NC by 3 points. Obama has a 2-point lead in the polls. If he underperforms by 3, that gives NC to McCain by 1 point.

[ieoeja]

3. Change between this day and Election

North Carolina
2004 today: Bush 52, Kerry 43
2004 final: Bush 56, Kerry 44
2008 today: Obama 49, McCain 47
2008 final? McCain 50.5, Obama 49.5

Virginia
2004 today: Bush 50, Kerry 44
2004 final: Bush 54, Kerry 46
2008 today: Obama 51, McCain 44
2008 final? Obama 52.5, McCain 48.5

Florida
2004 today: Bush 48, Kerry 47
2004 final: Bush 52, Kerry 47
2008 today: Obama 48, McCain 45
2008 final? McCain 49, Obama 48

Pennsylvania
2004 today: Kerry 47, Bush 47
2004 final: Kerry 51, Bush 48
2008 today: Obama 52, McCain 41
2008 final? Obama 56, McCain 42

Ohio
2004 today: Kerry 47, Bush 44
2004 final: Bush 51, Kerry 49
2008 today: Obama 50, McCain 43
2008 final? Obama 51.5, McCain 50.5

Colorado
2004 today: Kerry 49, Bush 45
2004 final: Bush 52, Kerry 47
2008 today: Obama 51, McCain 44
2008 final? McCain 51, Obama 49


I fully expect the undecideds to break heavily in favor of the Republican again (because so many Republics lie about their affiliation). Hopefully, we have enough cushion.

[Hamlette]

4. It's more clear at RCP from 2004 which did an average of the polls

electoral-vote doesn't use as many polls as RCP does...as I read it. (on edit, they were using the latest poll in 2004, which is what they use now...I think. RCP link below has the average of all polls the week before the election.)

Anyway, the polling average for teh last week in 2004 was:

Colorado bush up by 5.2

Ohio Bush up by 2.1

PA Kerry up by .9

FL Bush up by .6

And perhaps the best news of all, VA and NC were not even LISTED as battleground states at RCP last time.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html