Are the results we will hear on November 5th already predetermined?

[riverdeep]

This guy says yes. Allan J. Lichtman, a political scientist at American University in DC, a Harvard grad, and author of the book "The Thirteen Keys to the White House" wrote this on Oct 4th, 2007:

The election for president is more than a year away. Neither major party has as yet chosen a nominee. Yet the results of the 2008 election are already in: the Democrats will recapture the White House next fall, whether they nominate Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama, John Edwards, or Bill Richardson. Only an unprecedented cataclysmic change in American politics during the next year could salvage Republican hopes.

http://www.britannica.com/blogs/2007/10/the-13-keys-to-the-white-house-why-the-democrats-will-win

Instead of things like daily tracking polls, he believes far more fundamental keys determine elections, and short of radical shifts or missteps, Presidential elections are often determined well before election day. This system has correctly accounted for every election since 1860, in terms of the popular vote. As he notes, not since 1888 has the popular vote diverged from the electoral, except in 2000, and he says point blank that it was because of theft (he has extensive involvement in the purging of black voter rolls issue, having assisted the US Commision on Civil Rights).

[Mme. Defarge]

1. Fascinating!

[riverdeep]

2. Isn't it?

The fact that his track record is that good, you would think he would be all over the airwaves, but today is the first time I've heard of him. Of course, there can always be arguments about what constitutes a hit or miss in some of the categories, but still, it's a lot more systematic than mapping clouds like the daily tracking polls.

[Mme. Defarge]

3. And, oh my,

how things have changed in a year -- the economy has tanked, and the Dems ARE running a VERY charismatic candidate!

[Overseas]

4. Well there could be a whoops for 2004 then. Also stolen.

http://www.stealingamericathemovie.org/

to see "Stealing America: Vote by Vote" FOR FREE and review the 2004 information, with TV footage and statistics etc.

Flipped from 51 Kerry / 48 Bush with exit polls agreeing with vote totals to then, after 11 pm, have the

vote totals diverge from those exit polls-- UP THREE for Bush, DOWN THREE for Kerry-- a six point shift.

Quite unprecedented.

And calmly documented in the film now available to see for free.

Check it out.

[Renew Deal]

5. It probably is. It's up to God to reveal his plan.

Unless Obama wins.

This message brought to you by the RNC.

[riverdeep]

6. For people who want to know what the thirteen keys are:

Note that he gives an appraisal specific to this race at the end of the keys, in parentheses, and that this was his take as of Sept 2007.

"Summary of the 13 Keys as of September 2007:

The Keys are stated to favor the reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)

KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (FALSE)

KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (FALSE)

KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. (UNCERTAIN)

KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (UNCERTAIN)

KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (UNCERTAIN)

KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (FALSE)

KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)

KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)

KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)

KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)

KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)

KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)

Results: TRUE: 3 KEYS; FALSE: 7 KEYS; UNCERTAIN: 3 KEYS
Prediction: INCUMBENT REPUBLICANS LOSE POPULAR VOTE"

[riverdeep]

7. My own take on these keys:

1)Party Mandate: False, the incumbent party did lose seats in the midterms.

2)Contest: False, there was a hard fought contest in the incumbent party.

3)Incumbency: False, self evident.

4)Third Party: True, I doubt Barr or Nader will be playing much of a role at this point.

5)Short-term economy: False, it is in a meltdown, despite the Bush administration's denials until they could no longer deny.

6)Long-term economy: Pass, I don't have the stats here to answer this right now. My guess is it's another False.

7)Policy change: False, McCain thought stealing the 'Change' signs from the Obama camp would actually mean change; to non-morans, he can't hide his 90% same as Bush voting record.

8)Social Unrest: True, the sheep don't leave their TVs until it's too late.

9) Scandal: False, here I disagree sharply with Lichtman. This administration has been nothing BUT scandal from before they even took office. Even in Sept 2007, he should have seen that.

10) Foreign/military failure: False, the most obvious one, Iraq.

11)Foreign/military success: False, unless they're getting Osama out of the deep freeze for presentation on Monday, they got nothing.

12)Incumbent charisma: True, I'm being generous here. McCain is considered a war hero by many and Palin is supposed to be charming, so they tell me.

13)Challenger charisma: False, Obama has charisma up the whazoo, so much so, they had to disparage it by calling him a celebrity.



I count 9 False, since six or more are all that are required, McCain's going back to the Senate.