About Rasmussen.

[Drunken Irishman]

From Jersey Devil:

7. Ras will go up tomorrow for Obama

Unless I am mistaken Gallup, Zogby and IBD use a rolling 3 day average while Rasmussen uses a 4 day average. McCain, hinted at by Rasmussen in the past few days, will lose Sunday tomorrow, which was apparently a huge polling day for him.

Anyone know if this is true?

[maddezmom]

1. here is all I found

http://donklephant.com/2008/10/29/rasmussen-obama-up-by-3-5/

Obama - 50%
McCain - 47%

Obama loses one and McCain gains one as the numbers tighten further today.

For the moment it appears as if McCain’s “socialist” attacks are working, and I can’t help but think that the 2001 audio from Monday has had a small effect on the race. But then again…that’s what October surprises do. It’ll be a couple days before we know if this is a trend or just a momentary blip.

Rasmussen talks numbers and trends…


Prior to today’s update, Obama had been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days.

During that 33-day stretch, Obama’s voter support had stayed between 50% and 52% every day while McCain was in the 44% to 46% range.

It will take another day or so to determine whether today’s numbers reflect a lasting change or statistical noise. Two of the last three nights of polling show a closer race than was found in the previous month.

The 5 day:
10/29/2008: McCain - 47%, Obama - 50%
10/28/2008: McCain - 46%, Obama - 51%
10/27/2008: McCain - 45%, Obama - 51%
10/26/2008: McCain - 44%, Obama - 52%
10/25/2008: McCain - 44%, Obama - 52%

[Schulzz]

2. "It will take another day or so to determine whether today’s numbers...

reflect a lasting change or statistical noise. Two of the last three nights of polling show a closer race than was found in the previous month. "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

This means that the first bad day will drop off tomorrow, and Obama might go up. But not to much, there will still be a tighter day included in the average.