ABC-WAPO Poll

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I was reading an article in the Washing Post about polls:


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803675.html?hpid=artslot

The Washington Post's electorate model assumes that African Americans will comprise ten percent of the electorate in 2008, down from eleven percent in 2004...Given Barack Obama's historic candidacy that makes no sense at all...

As a point of reference African Americans comprise about twelve percent of the population of the United States...

[MadBadger]

1. And I still think that poll is currently spot on.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Who Knows

I e-mailed them...It's not a matter of mistrust but it strikes me as odd...

Less African Americans, as a percentage of the total electotrate, will be voting in 08 than in 04... HUH

[chitty]

3. If you have a larger percentage of whites voting this year

then the AA vote might be less in proportion.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Why Would More Whites Be Voting This Year Unless You Assume Some Kind Of Backlash?

~

[chitty]

7. No backlash - just more voters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. African Americans And Latinos Are Becoming A Larger Percenatage Of The Population

~

[chitty]

10. We weren't talking latinos.

AA are approx 12% of the total population.

If less whites voted in 2004 than will vote in 2008 than why couldn't the AA % drop by 1 point?

[grantcart]

4. but actually your point is much stronger than you make it if you apply it to state races

because AA votes have a disproportionate impact in certain swing states, and looking at individual state races show that you are correct.

Georgia AA population 30% early voting (in very heavy voting) 35%.


If AA votes continue to meet 35% of the total votes it means that Obama only needs 25-6% of the White vote to win. That is an extraordinary low number to achieve.


http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

[stillcool]

6. What percentage of the population...

is African-American?

[Renew Deal]

8. It makes sense if they think interest is going to grow across the board.

[tpi10d]

11. My hunch AA will vote in record numbers this year.

Compared to elections in the past 40 years. I expect it to be more notable than the 18-29 vote in that regard. I agree African Americans are underrepresented in that poll, and this election will bring out AAs which rarely or never vote.