Why you shouldn't panic over fluctuating tracking polls

[WI_DEM]

It's cliche but the only poll that counts is the one on election day (or whenever you vote).

That said the tracking polls (as the Obama campaign predicted) have narrowed. Obama still leads by 3-7 points in them. He has led in every tracking and national poll for well over a month. Tracking polls are notorious for fluctuations. According to campaign officials (per an interview on Countdown last night) nobody ever thought McCain would wind up with only 42-44 percent of the vote. It is normal that in the final days the polls tighten somewhat and that is what is happening. The thing to keep an eye on is that almost all the tracking polls show Obama at 50-53 percent. Undecideds are making up their minds. At this point they are incredibly low-info and, imo, downright stupid, so that is fueling some of McCain's gains.

These are the things to look at:
1) Is Obama at 50 or above in the tracking polls, if yes, then that is a good sign.
2) The State Polls, a bunch of them came out today from the AP and Quinnipiac--all of them good for Obama. PA, McCain's last stand is still trending by double digits to Obama. Obama has solid leads in Virginia and Ohio and a smaller lead in Florida. We are competing on McCain's turf--he needs to win all of them, we only need to take one or two.
3) This is a change election. People have made up their minds and the incumbent party is out. I wouldn't be surprised to see in the final weekend a sudden uptick for Obama in the polls. The economy sucks and McCain isn't registering. Palin is an albotross.
4) Even if the polls close in the final days, early voting in many key states began weeks ago and it's overwhelming. Indications are that it's benefiting Obama in states like Ohio, NC, GA, etc--it could very well be that Obama has already banked enough votes in early voting that even if he runs behind in a state like Ohio on election day itself he could still win it due to early voting.
5) The Obama camp has a tremendous gotv effort underway.
6) I keep hearing some say "Obama's not fighting hard enough" a common refrain this entire campaign when the polls turned downward a bit, but Obama and his campaign have always come back strongly and they will continue to do so.

So don't whine! If you feel things aren't going well don't bring down the rest of us. Go out and make calls for Obama or something.

Thank you.

[WI_DEM]

1. changed title of thread as the original was kind of snarky.