why are state polls going one way and national polls the other way...

[dennis4868]

even Arizona is getting close....so how is it that the national tracking polls are tightening....I know I am missing something here...

[HughMoran]

1. George Bush is picking his nose

That's all I see in your posts.

:rofl:

[dennis4868]

3. really?

I will send off an email to the DU administrator about this....sorry about that....

[MadBadger]

2. Maybe Obama is just losing it in the Really Safe McCain states like Oklahoma?

[dennis4868]

5. could be....

[nyc 4 Biden]

4. IMO it's easier to manipulate the national poll...

And the results reach more people. Only high-info voters (like us) pay attention to the more prescient state polls.

EDIT FOR CLARITY

[Terran]

22. State polls aren't just "more prescient"

They're the only polls that matter. National polls are virtually meaningless without looking at the electoral vote picture.

[nyc 4 Biden]

29. While it is true that it makes much more sense...

...to watch state polls. I have to argue that the national polls do matter practically. They matter because the majority of Americans only hear about/pay attention to the national polls and it affects their decisions, ie..Should I bother to go vote?...I want to vote for the winner?...etc

[Terran]

30. I guess that's possible.

It's hard for me to imagine such a degree of wishy-washiness, but I know it's out there.

[bkinsd]

6. Obama is not losing it. Many national polls show him with

significant leads. Lets not get fixated on one or two polls. Look at the big picture.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Who Knows?

State polls lag...That's just a fact...

The polling for the AP/GFK and the Quinippiac (sp) that are being posted today were concluded on Sunday... Today's nat'l polls reflect Monday and Tuesday's results...

[ddeclue]

8. Because the candidates are actually working the battleground states

and letting the others coast. Particularly true for McCain. This will drive the polls in battleground states closer to each other while non battleground states will increase their gaps.

Doug D.

[maseman]

9. It is no manipulation of polls

I see that on DU all the time. There's no tinkering with polls.

The bottom line is that in states that are RED the polling is firming up like Texas and Nebraska. There's enough Red States to make the national polling tighten.

Remember, all along, the Obama camp has preached they do not care about the national polls but the 18 battelground states. They win the majority of those they easily win. That is what is going on.

[LynneSin]

10. So when is the last time our election was decided by popularity vote?

:shrug:

[BzaDem]

11. 2 reasons.

1. State polls lag behind national polls. The 11 polls or so that came out from Quinnipiac and AP were all conducted Oct 22-Oct 26. The current tracking polls are dated Oct26-Oct28. If there has been a sudden tightening, it has happened very recently, and it has not yet been reflected in the state polls.

2. It is quite possible (in fact, evidence on the R2K poll supports this) that the tightening is mainly Republicans coming home in red states that aren't competitive. If this is the case, then the national tightening isn't as important.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Yes-That's What I Said In My Post

State polls lag...

[dennis4868]

14. I hope #2...

is the reason...McCain getting stronger in very red states....

[maseman]

15. Actually many of the state polls released today

are through October 27th. One day begind the national daily tracking polls. In the battleground states Obama continues to do very well.

[Schulzz]

16. I think 1. only makes sense when there is a major national game changer.

But nothing has happened last week, what might cause Obama to lose support everywhere. I'm no expert and could be wrong, of course.

[Schulzz]

12. DailyKos/R2000 internals are showing McCain's gains mainly in the South.

Obama is still ahead by good margins is every other region.

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/29

MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
NORTHEAST 36 60 1 1 1 1
SOUTH 55 38 2 2 1 2
MIDWEST 42 52 2 2 1 1
WEST 41 53 2 2 1 1

[MadBadger]

17. Actually, today's movement came out of the Northeast

Yesterday it was 62-32

But then again, that may be better since Obama will sweep all those states anyway.

[Schulzz]

18. That is another possibilty.

Obama has built huge leads in Kerry states in late September and McCain may now be gaining some points there. But not enough to win one of those states.

[leftist.]

19. How can you tell?

I believe you, to be sure. This is not a challenege. You always seem to know so much about these things.

[MadBadger]

21. Look at the internals for today and yesterday. You see the movement and no movement in the South

[leftist.]

28. Well that was easy wasn't it.

Thanks for pointing my dumb ass in the right direction :) After you said it I went dailykos.com and saw for myself. Thanks man!

[texasleo]

20. 5.8 RCP last week (10/20)..... 5.9 RCP as of a few minutes ago.

[WeDidIt]

23. Nobody's polling the states strongly in a candidate's favor

well, witht eh exception of PA, that is.

The rest we don't see. Obama's probably dropped some points in New York and California, but really, what's the difference between 62-34 and 60-36 in New york and McCain gaining 6 points in Oklahoma?

Those shifts would appear in teh naitonal polls, though.

[SeeHopeWin]

24. A couple of reasons, but first we should all remember that the daily polls are the LEAST reliable...

FYI...A side note here Zogby showed Obama up 1 point today...But still not reliable.

The more reliable full polls, PEW, NEWSWEEK, NBC, CBS...etc. still show a normal rage of 7-12 points Obama leads.

As to why this is happening:

1) It is getting close to the end and all undecideds are now deciding...Obama is already at 50% :) makes sense to expect McCain will end up getting 70% of the undecideds at the end. We are seeing this now.

2) Pollsters can no longer effectively differentiate on a national level between those who have already voted, those who have been polled before, and those who will be able to show up and vote on election day...All the margins within each of these groups are contracting.

Overall, I think the national polls become less and less relevant as we get closer to November 4th...We can get a much better picture of what is going on in a more controlled smaller sample, such as a state or even a district.

The country overall is much closer to a 49-51 split than a 60-40 split - I will be very surprised if Obama gets 55% of the votes. But we are winning becasue Obama seems to be easily stealing red states like VA, CO, and of course IA which we already know is the bag.

[WI_DEM]

25. The tracking polls are still 3-7 points in Obama's favor and no reason for people to panic.

[Mike 03]

26. Wise advice from someone here yesterday: Focus on the State Polls

Also, it's true that the Zogby poll shows narrowing, but a lot of the other national polls show Obama with a safe lead, five to nine points, that has not significantly changed over the past seven days. It tooks pretty good to me.

[democrattotheend]

27. State polls tend to lag a little

They are conducted over a longer time period and often held for a couple days before release, so they tend to be slower to show shifts. For example, the AP and Quinnipiac state polls released today were all conducted October 22-26, whereas most of the national tracking polls coming out today were taken October 26-28. So I expect to see state polls tighten a little bit too later this week. If Obama goes back up in the national polls the state polls will be slower to show that too.

[americanmaverick]

31. Not true in the last week

Most state polls coming out this days are conducted almost like daily tracking polls . They don't show any significant tightening either .

[Jersey Devil]

33. Yes, like the PA morning call that has had O up 12 or 13 for many days now

They do a poll every single day and there has been no change at all in the past week.

[progressivebydesign]

32. they're not. The national polls are not tightening.

You're missing the facts... the RIGHT WING talking point has been that they're tightening, because they are picking and choosing their polling models.

I'm tiring of these threads.. hour after hour... it sounds like freerepublic here for the past few days.