PA: Obama trailed Clinton by 6% in RCP and lost in the primary by 9%

[TheDonkey]

Unfortunately, I have to agree with Rendell. I do not think the polls can be trusted when it comes to PA. While I think the "Bradley" effect is way overplayed on the national level it could have some serious effect on certain places in America (those still stuck 25 years ago in the past).

I know Murtha is in hot water now, but his comments were 100% true. Many in the area revel in ignorance and bigotry. Confederate flags are not an uncommon sight (don't even get into the fact that it is hypocritical and bizarre... been there and done that).


Western PA ... concerns me.

:hide:

We just need to keep the pressure on. I'm glad that Obama went to Pittsburgh. We need to fire up supporters there. I know one supporter who will be working hard this weekend, my mom! :)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html



Edit: Concern lessened. Thanks DUers. I'm feeling better. It's getting late and I was depressed that Palin held a hate rally at my alma mater today and all this McCain in PA garbage on TV. Things are not looking as "dire" in the keystone state.

[Zynx]

1. That's not statistically significant.

[FrenchieCat]

2. That's because Obama refused to pay Street Money.....

I'm thinking that he's decided to pay Street money for the GE.

[TheDonkey]

6. I do remember in the aftermath there was talk that Obama was weaker than expected in

Philly. I'm confident that the Obama campaign will learn from past miscalculations.

[Bicoastal]

3. Why there and not, say, Virginia?

[nico818]

4. I thought Obama was down HUGE in PA, and made a big late comeback.

Wasn't he down like 20 points, and made a late rally?

[NYC_SKP]

8. !

[nico818]

12. I'm talking about trailing in the Primary.

[TheDonkey]

16. You are right

he was down by nearly 20 a month before the primary and spent a lot of time there to cut into that lead.

[Eric J in MN]

5. Primaries are more difficult to predict than general elections.

Also, if Obama get 3 percentage points less in PA than in polls, he'll still win PA.

He's leading 52-41 in PA.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[Awsi Dooger]

30. Good point

Primaries are more susceptible to bad polling and wild late shifts in preference. In a general election we have known variables, like how Pennsylvania typically votes in relation to the national average. Pennsylvania is basically +4 Democratic. Even if Obama loses some of that via comparative weakness in the state, it is still a bizarre stretch that he could win nationally by many points yet lose a state that prefers Democrats.

[pot luck]

7. According to the RCP average, Obama did better than he was expected.

It was Hillary's numbers that were way off base. If the same holds true on Nov. 4th, then Obama will win PA. He's polling consistently over 50%.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. A 3 point swing is within the MOE.

[KingFlorez]

10. The primary was a whole different ball game

And plus, polls are not an exact prediction of what the outcome of an election will be. As long as Obama has somewhat of a lead, he's fine and will win by a good margin. 53%-46% for Obama is my prediction, he will not lose this state.

[BzaDem]

11. It's not the margin! It's Obama's absolute numbers.

RCP predicted Obama would get 43.4% of the vote. Obama ended up getting 45.4% of the vote.

The reason one should look at the absolute result for Obama instead of the margin is because undecideds in the Primary (and possibly in the General) broke heavily for Clinton (and possibly McCain in the general).

RCP now predicts that Obama will get 52% of the vote. Therefore, Obama should get at least 52% of the vote on election day (even if all the undecideds break for McCain).

[TheDonkey]

15. That is interesting

Thank you. After reading these posts I'm going to edit my OP. I should probably keep to a padded room for these next 6 days.

[RememberWellstone]

13. Bradley is no effect!

That is the myth that we cannot buy into.

I think the polls are more unreliable than in past years because they cannot keep up with the newer voters. We have registered more voters since the primaries and we will have more actually voting for Obama than Mcsame. It's the math.

[elkston]

14. The question is, would these Democrats still be RACIST enough

to vote for a Republican (with a vastly contrary agenda) OVER another Democrat.

Take New Hampshire:

With Hillary they could rationalize that her policies were fairly commensurate with Obama's. Thus, the consequence of their "racism" would be minimal. Plus, Obama was young -- he would have another shot and THEN they could vote for him.

But could these same voters again have a degree of racism that would cause them to abandon Obama in favor of McCain/Palin? The duo who are sprinting to the right as fast as they can?

Its just not the same set of cirumstances.

One other thing. I doubt that Western PA voters would have difficulty making their true choice known. If they are gun nuts, racists, or fundamentalists, they won't lie about supporting Obama. They'll just say it straight or go "undecided" (and as long as we're over 50% undecideds are not a threat). In fact, I'd say the "liberal" voters of NH are more vulnerable to the Bradley Effect because they would have more guilt about actually having racist tendencies.

Bottom line: Obama's going to win PA.

[rufus dog]

21. Good point

and if a person was a racist would they vote for a woman? Seems to be a stretch to think a racist would be able to embrace a woman as President.

[elkston]

24. Actually I do beleive a "hard" racist would vote for a white woman over any black (n/t)

[TheKentuckian]

17. Party vs. Party

is a less than wise way to try to assess a General Election.

This is a super overstated point and has been for months. I promise you that we wouldn't be talking about Hillary having dubious chances in Oregon because Obama won there.

[quakerboy]

18. RCP has obama up 9.8.

So, then you are saying he may only take the state by 6.8. That would be acceptable, in my opinion. Thanks.

[Quixote1818]

19. If I had it I would bet a million bucks on PA going blue this year.

I am not the least worried about PA.

[ROh70]

20. PA primaries - shows us Obama's strength among PA voters, not his weakness

Here's why. In the PA primaries, HRC had a huge 20 point lead, and then Obama whittled it down to single digits. It's only because undecideds broke late and heavily for Clinton that her lead widened on election day.

Now, here's why the undecideds going to HRC at the last minute actually proves Obama's strength in PA, not his weakness. Remember, HRC LOST a significant number of voters leading up to the election. Many of them went to Obama, and many of them became undecided. In other words, most of the undecideds were probably once Hillary supporters who became undecided because of Obama's appeal. Up until the last minute, these voters probably were torn between being loyal to Hillary/Bill, and voting for the new guy. In the end, they ultimately "came home" to Hillary, but obviously that decision was not an easy one, because they couldn't decide until the last minute.

[mwei924]

22. I just have a hard time believing that Obama would lose a Kerry state.

[Clio the Leo]

23. McCain is not Hillary and Palin certainly isn't. The choice is clear. NT

[rschmitt]

25. Don't worry about Pittsburgh

Look at the evidence before you insult us: The Quinnipiac poll taken last week showed a 54-39 margin in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) in favor of Obama.
Moreover, take into account that we have no fewer than four full-scale universities -- Pitt, Duquesne, Point Park, Carnegie Mellon plus a branch of Robert Morris -- within city limits, more college students per capita than any city in America. These people are galvanized to get out the vote in a district that has voted straight-Dem since Roosevelt, which makes their job all the easier.
Pittsburgh will do its part.

[anonymous171]

26. Ohhhh 3 whole points! That bradely effect sure has diminished.

[political_Dem]

27. Another thing to dwell on.

In Iowa and other states, a lot of Republicans crossed over to vote for Hillary during the primaries. That too could have played into the polling factors as well as the Primary vote.

[MrSlayer]

28. I think we may be ahead enough here to offset the racist idiots.

PA is going to be tighter than projected but we should still win.

[GoesTo11]

29. No Limbaugh effect in the general election

That could have easily shifted results a few points from poll numbers in the primary.

[krawhitham]

31. many reasons why this is BS

Rush had repubs voting for Hill
undecided was 7.1 in RCP's poll, they went 2% for Obama 5.1% for Hill at the height if Rev. Wright crap

Voter turn out was only 53% (4.4 million Reg Dems and 2.3 million voted)