DU, I can't sleep. Someone say a few reassuring words about Pennsylvania.

[Bicoastal]

I just can't abide this seemingly HUGE divide between what every poll says (solid blue) and what every Pennsylvania DU'er, McCain spokesman, and Gov. Ed Rendell says (light blue, possibly pink.)

PLEEEEEEEEEEEZE?

[Zynx]

1. We're going to win it by 9 points.

[Bicoastal]

2. How do you know?

[Zynx]

13. That's what the polling indicates. Don't believe rumors on internal polls.

Those are always and everywhere crap.

[WinkyDink]

14. Clue: Neither Obama nor Biden have come to the Lehigh Valley since the Convention. Why? NOT

NECESSARY.

No, Philly suburbs and Scranton aren't the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton area. Even Gore and Kerry spoke here.

[PretzelWarrior]

3. Governor of Pennsylvania had a big smile on his face

I believe his pleas for Obama to rush over to Pennsylvania and spend more time there were primarily a ruse intended to encourage McCain / Failin to spend precious money and time in a lost cause.

[WinkyDink]

4. The GOTV will be, as it has been, FORMIDABLE. UNION GUYS do the JOB for Democrats here!

[KingFlorez]

5. It was blue in 2000 and 2004

In both cycles, lots of people said Bush could win PA, it didn't happen. It's all just a lot of panic over nothing, PA is going to be in the blue column next Tuesday.

[BzaDem]

6. "a few reassuring words about Pennsylvania."

In all seriousness though, Obama is polling about 53% there right now. So even if all the undecideds break for McCain, AND 3% of those polled are lying about their intentions, Obama still wins. I think it will be close (and I do think that most undecideds will break for McCain), but I still think O will win.

[regnaD kciN]

35. Actually, if your scenario played out...

...it would wind up a tie.

[slampoet]

7. PA has great milk.

Now stop being so needy and depend on yourself.

Whatever the result you will need to learn to deal.

[NYC_SKP]

8. .!.

[Bicoastal]

12. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaah...

...Ok, that did it. Thanks. :hi:

[stratomagi]

9. You do realize that with the 50 state strategy PA is up

about 900k more dems than repubes. In 2004 it was 500k....so yeah solid blue.

[mvd]

10. I'll try to make you feel better

- I think Rendell really wants high turnout. And we do need turnout for our lead to hold

- One poll today showed Obama's leading in Bucks County

- While the lead might not be 10 points, Obama only came back because Rendell was nervous

[briv1016]

11. It's okay.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/08-pa-pres-ge-mvo.php

[puerco-bellies]

15. Duuude

I hear they have choice surf.. Nighty-night.

[babylonsister]

16. Yawn.

:rofl: There's always this:



No, I meant this!!

[writes3000]

17. You're freaking out again. Stop it. This is Obama - He knows what he's doing.

Do your part. He'll do his.

[CreekDog]

18. McCain (and campaign) say Obama's a commie, terrorist, muslim

likewise that he (McCain) will win Pennsylvania.

[NorCalDem]

19. The nicest thing I can say about Pennsylvania...

is that I got out, and moved to Cali. Go Phillies though... :D

[WinkyDink]

21. Funny; my PA.-born husband moved to Anaheim for a year and moved back. No change in seasons.

[NorCalDem]

27. i love the no seasons :)

every day is just sunny, except in Jan-Mar, and then in rains occasionally. Then 9 months of sunshine... wash, rinse repeat :D

[vaberella]

20. We all know Rendell is another Lieberman...

The state could be Navy but to save his ass he'll say it's Hot Pink.

[WinkyDink]

22. WTH? You're crazy. Rendell is a VERY LOYAL and STRONG DEMOCRAT.

Obviously, you're not Pennsylvanian, nor have you met Big Ed as he marched in parades in little burgs (I have), or have seen him introduce our candidates in rallies in union halls (I have).

[vaberella]

25. Admittedly I have not. I'm a NYer... :D

I've just heard him say this before when polls and things say otherwise. I understand denying polling, but going pink. He could just have easily said that it's leaning Obama, but people need to go and vote because it's still a toss. The whole pink thing gives me a feel that he's keeping it open for McCain.

I apologize if I offended.

[jberryhill]

29. You don't know Ed Rendell /nt

[vaberella]

39. I stated as much and apologized for it. Check the post above yours.

Moving on...

[Thrill]

23. Rendell just knows he needs fire up the AA and Young voters in Philly

Obama has to have huge turnouts in the Philly area.

[rschmitt]

24. Dems have 1.2 million voter registration edge

And, as anyone in or near in Pittsburgh can attest, the citizens take exceptional pride in voting straight Dem. Almost to a fault, in some local elections.
The Democrat will win.

[Bleacher Creature]

26. Rasmussen had it 53O/46M today.

He also had MISSISSPPI at 53M/45O today.

You basically have as much to worry about in PA as McCain has to worry about Mississippi.

[jberryhill]

28. A picture is worth a thousand....

[Hamlette]

30. Remember Bush saying he would take California in both 2000 and 2004. And get some sleep.

I worry about way too many things but PA is not one of them.

[saltpoint]

31. We're going to carry Pennsylvania.

We got Philadelphia, we got the Steelers.

McCain's numbers nationally are the numbers of a losing candidate, absent a rare, 11th-hour disaster of some sort. His people have sat him down in a hotel conference room and laid out the percentages. It's no wonder he's been acting like a fool.

By now he's painfully aware that he will not carry one single John Kerry state and may lose several of the Bush states -- Iowa for sure, and likely New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and even Florida right now look like Obama pick-ups from the red column in 2004. That's a handsome electoral college boost right there.

In addition, we have a chance in Montana, Indiana, Missouri, and Georgia -- also red Bush states. When a Republican presidential candidate is tied or within the margin of error in Indiana in the last week of an election, it probably means he's going to lose in a lot of other places, even as he might lose in Indiana.

We're going to whomp McCain in that large electoral-rich second group and maybe win a couple of the third group.

I'm probably leaving a couple states out of one group or the other, but the point is that Pennsylvania is reliably blue this time, IMO.

[suffragette]

32. I think this clip should be reassuring, especially since it

shows the spin in action, even after the reality has just been displayed:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo

[pam4water]

33. I live in Pennsylvania and I'll be voting for Obama. Does that help? N/T

[DLnyc]

34. Two things, one small and one big, that should reassure you:

1) I am going to PA Saturday, Sunday, Monday and probably Tuesday (after voting here) to help GOTV. (small thing)

2) YOU are going to make phone calls, travel if possible, do everything to you can to Get Out The Vote from now until poll closing time in Hawaii on Tuesday. (HUGE thing)

[PA Democrat]

36. I have volunteered for both the Kerry and the Obama campaigns.

Obama's GOTV effort has blown me away. It's MUCH more extensive than anything we've seen before.

[ColbertWatcher]

37. The big gun has not been pulled out in PA for this election, yet: Heinz. n/t

[krawhitham]

38. Why is everyone falling for the McCain spin

He stands no chance in PA

3 polls yesterday with average of +9 for Obama
Democrats now outnumber GOP by almost 1.2 million (4.4 VS 3.2)


and we do not need PA to win

[GoesTo11]

40. McCain's efforts in PA are at the expense of other swing states

Less on Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina. If we can come through with a win in PA, then he's been wasting his effort and punching himself out.

[appleannie1]

41. I was at a Democratic dinner last week. The optimism was contagious

Plus, I have seen more Obama signs in Republican towns than I have ever seen Dem signs before.

[PA Democrat]

42. IIRC, PA was a much closer race back in 2004 between Bush and Kerry.

On Nov. 1, Bush was leading Kerry by 4 among likely voters and Kerry was ahead by 2 in registered voters in the same Gallup poll.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/31/poll.sunday/index.html

Quinnipiac had Bush up by 2 among likely voters on October 28

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=489

[WilliamPitt]

43. Monolithic Black voter turnout + well-organized Dems + eastern PA has more people.

Hope that helps. I'm nervous, too.