Big Picture: Comparing 2004 polling averages with 2004 polling results

[Bucky]

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/_rcp_2004result_2004rcp_now.php

The link above goes to probably the best available predictor of next week's results (not counting, obviously, late breakers going either blue or insane). TPM points out that the Real Clear Politics averaging of polls was an excellent predictor of performance four years ago.

The exceptions were Florida, Missouri, Nevada, & West Virginia, where Bush did better than the RCP averaged forecasted. In all other states RCP was within 2 points of the final result.

* In Florida Bush beat the forecast by 5.5%,
* In Missouri Bush beat the forecast by 3%
* Bush won Nevada, but by 3.5% less than the forecast showed - so Dems did better than expected there
* Bush won West Virginia by 4.5% more than forecasted.

According to RCP:

Obama is ahead in Florida by 2.7% now. He needs a bigger margin to overcome the "special circumstances" that are no longer truly special in Florida

Obama is ahead by half a point in Missouri. The trend is positive, but this will be a big nailbiter.

Obama is ahead by 3.5 in Nevada.

McCain is up by 8% in West Virginia. But oddly, he's started running heavy ad rotations there this week. Why should he be worried?

[Recursion]

1. WV media buys bleed into VA, OH, and PA

It's probably a "four birds with one stone" theory.

[Bucky]

3. What a positive spin on "scatter shot aimless shouting"

Virginia & Pennsylvania are lost to them. The only reason they deny it is that they need PA to win.

[Recursion]

4. Well, you know, I'm a positive kind of guy...

The McCampaign is only slowly waking up to their situation in PA.

[liberalmuse]

2. Walking my dog is a good time for thinking...

and this is timely, because tonight I was thinking how the polls in 2004 did indeed predict the election results fairly close. I do remember that Bush was slightly ahead of Kerry, and I thought that more Dems would come out and Kerry would win, but that didn't happen. I was thinking tonight that the McCain supporters believe that he will come on top of pretty much insurmountable polling deficits. I think we were much more realistic with Kerry's chances in 2004, than the 'pubs are with McCain's chances. The polls in 2004 fluctuated by a couple of points ahead to almost a couple points behind just before the election. Perhaps I have a crappy memory, but that's what I remember.