What is the poll KO is talking about, only up by 1 point in early voting?

[Hamlette]

WTF?

How do they know how people vote and how worried should I be? (I'm sure this news is old by now but humor me, I just got off a hard day at work and the first thing I hear is we are only up 1 point IN EARLY VOTING?????)

[liberalmuse]

1. Texas is an early voting state...

Think about it. That's damn good. Oh yeah, and Utah is an early voting state.

[Hamlette]

4. this was nation, are more red states early voting states?

why isn't Nate talking about this?

I'm gonna pull a Rachael, yes, I'll say it if I have to.

Don't make me say it!

[NYC_SKP]

8. Now, just listen to my voice, I'm gonna talk you down.

It's gonna be OK, it's just TV and polls and you know better...

Take a deep breath, that's right.

Now come down here...

Have a slice of Pie:

[Hamlette]

24. You are the best. Thank you. We'll get through this together. I owe you one!

I'll buy you a beer to go with that beautiful pie.

[NYC_SKP]

25. My pleasure, Hey, this will cheer you up, too...

Be sure also to check the main OP to my response:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7646818&mesg_id=7647003

Pretty state tracking poll maps....

:hi:

[BeyondGeography]

2. Includes absentee ballots, which have always been heavily Republican

Fineman said earlier that the Obama camp is very happy with that number.

[HughMoran]

14. DING! DING! DING!!

The fact that the heavily republican absentee ballots (military) were included in that number is the main reason it's only Obama by 1.

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[HughMoran]

16. What the FREEP are you talking about?

:freak:

[uppityperson]

18. troll posting to up #'s to post this...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7646134&mesg_id=7646134

[HughMoran]

20. Yep, I searched & reported them even before they posted that

I was all over it!

:D

[uppityperson]

21. I've another for you, just for fun but slightly less immediately transparant...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4326804&mesg_id=4327681

[HughMoran]

22. Oh, dear

I noticed our friend posted in a thread started by that same poster. Hmmmm, very interesting....

[uppityperson]

23. Things that make one go hmmmm.

Coincidences happen sometimes, but indeed.

[Jackpine Radical]

3. I think they exit-poll early voters in some places.

[blue sky at night]

5. ya, I just looked at this....

ko really didn't spell it out did he....



http://people-press.org/



here is the page I was looking for btw....


http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines







CHange, HOpe, OBama/BIden!!!!!!

[Hamlette]

7. it was a poll I'm not familiar with, Hotline? how can that one be 1% and Pew be 19%

I'm thinking its the problem Nate talked about maybe counting all REQUESTED absentee ballots plus all early votes, that could be screwy.

[blue sky at night]

11. ya, you are right....

but it really bugged me, because we voted on Sunday in Akron, OHio and it was packed with folks that were not voting for mcsame/pain!!!

[jazzjunkysue]

6. These are mostly swing states, so, it's OK> The dark blue states are not

early voting. So, you're only seeing 1 point, where in past years you'd see the GOP way ahead in early voting.

Part of it is senior citizens who don't work.

[melody]

9. There are a very dark blue states with early voting -- that said ...

Here are the early voting states:
Alaska, Nebraska, Arizona, Nevada, Arkansas. New Mexico, California, North Carolina, Colorado, North Dakota,
Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Oklahoma, Hawaii, South Dakota, Idaho, Tennessee, Illinois, Texas, Indiana, Utah,
Iowa, Vermont, Kansas, West Virginia, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Maine, Wyoming, Montana

Out of 31 states, 20 are states where McCain is ahead or competitive. The natural tendency of early voting to
lean Republican is also true. Whereas early voting has been stressed by Obama, only eleven of the states are
Democratic safe or likely.

Given all that, it's amazing that Obama is ahead at all. I think it's amazing that he is.

[melody]

10. 20 early voting states out of 31 total are states where McAncient is competitive

Here are the early voting states:
Alaska, Nebraska, Arizona, Nevada, Arkansas. New Mexico, California, North Carolina, Colorado, North Dakota,
Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Oklahoma, Hawaii, South Dakota, Idaho, Tennessee, Illinois, Texas, Indiana, Utah,
Iowa, Vermont, Kansas, West Virginia, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Maine, Wyoming, Montana

Out of 31 states, 20 are states where McCain is ahead or competitive. Early voting tends to be heavily Republican.
The fact that Obama is ahead at all I think speaks to how well the Early Voting GOTV has gone.

[mmonk]

12. You need to look at it state to state. For instance, in NC early voting

is currently as of this morning Obama 63%, McCain 36%.

[featherman]

13. See this from Kos with sources WaPo, Gallup and others for a different take

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/28/18188/691/712/645093

[abumbyanyothername]

17. Thank you for that. nt

[Godhumor]

19. Let me explain the numbers-side of the D/H poll for you

878 polled of which 17% had already voted. Now,this is obviously rounded, as 17% of 878 comes to 149.25...for ease let's call that 150 have already voted.

Very simply, the sample is far too small to present an accurate picture. sub-samples, as these 150 are, are statistically irrelevant and, moreover have a margin of error significantly higher than the full sample.

To give you a better example, a few days ago the IBD poll said 71% of 18-24 year olds were voting for McCain; a number so off for a sample that they ran a footnote saying it was wonky due to being such a small sub-sample.

Go to the links others have provided to actually see what's happening in early voting.