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Meta-Analysis of State Polls: 57% chance of Kerry victory

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mfritz Donating Member (151 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-04 05:24 PM
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Meta-Analysis of State Polls: 57% chance of Kerry victory
Check out this web site http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html by Prof. Sam Wang (Princeton)

He analyses state polls to calculate the probability of a Kerry victory in each battleground state. It's fascintating. You can read his method for yourself and decide if you believe it.

Right now he says the states really in play (Kerry chances %20 - 80%) are: TN, WV, PA, WI, AR, NV

According to him Kerry has a higher probability of winning Colorado than he does winning WI, OH, MO, or FL!
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