Florida voting numbers so far.

[madfloridian]

The Florida votes so far

The Florida votes so far

Nearly 20 percent of all Florida voters have cast ballots already. That includes 1,128,241 abentee ballots (35.4% by Democrats and 49.96% by Republicans; and 1,193,987 early votes (53.66% by Democrats and 30.25% by Republicans).

All told, 115,418 more Democrats have voted than Republicans. Also 357,298 independent and minor party voters have cast ballots.

*
Posted by Adam Smith at 12:10:27 PM on October 28, 2008

About 12,000 of those are caught in the net of the No Match No Vote law.

Florida's No Match list has grown to 12, 165. Mostly African-Americans, Hispanics, Democrats and S. Florida

The state released a new and larger "no match" list Monday of 12,165 names, compared with 8,867 on an earlier list released Oct. 16. The new list includes unverified names from the previous list, and is again disproportionately made up of African-Americans, Hispanics, Democrats and residents of South Florida.

African-Americans and Hispanics combined account for 55 percent of would-be voters on the latest list, which includes 6,194 Democrats and 1,440 Republicans. The new list reflects unverified new voters from Sept. 8 through Oct. 18, the last day county election supervisors could process registration forms.

..."The list includes 135 people named Rodriguez, 90 people named Jones, 67 named Jackson and 60 named Martinez. There are 13 Smiths in Hillsborough alone.

Florida, where voting is a new experience.

[madfloridian]

1. TPM quotes Suffolk saying so far Obama ahead in early voting.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/poll_obama_winning_florida_ear.php

"A new Suffolk poll of Florida, which shows Barack Obama ahead 49%-44%, has another statistic that could affect the outcome on Election Day: Among early voters, Obama is ahead by a 60%-40% margin.

Early voting has become a big thing in Florida, and current statistics show that enough early votes have already been cast to equal more than a quarter of the total votes that were cast in 2004. So Obama has already banked a good lead in a major swing state, if this poll is accurate.

Bear in mind, it's still possible to win the early votes but lose overall -- mainly because enthusiastic Obama supporters show up to vote early, but they would have otherwise voted on Election Day if the option hadn't been available. For example, Obama won the early votes in the Texas primary in March, but Hillary Clinton won on Primary Day itself by a wide enough margin to overcome the deficit."

[Essene]

2. very good news... and the early voting ratio only helps

for the first time in my life, i actually hope many republicans just stay home on nov 4

[madfloridian]

3. Kick for the numbers and a kick for Charlie for expanding voting hours.

I knew he could do it if he wished.

[ddeclue]

4. By my estimate that makes it about a 6.5% lead for Obama in FL..

ABV
I am assuming a 55 to 45 split of independents for Obama which is how I figure it will end up going in FL based on my experience here..

What we have:

399397 Dems
563669 R's
165175 NPA

EV
640693 Dems
361181 R's
192113 NPA

Totals
1040090 Dems
924850 R's
357288 NPA's

figuring a 55 to 45 split of NPA's for Obama gives an estimate of:

1236598 Obama
1085629 McCain


or I estimate about 53.3% Obama to 46.7% for McCain or about a 6.51% lead or 150,969 vote lead for Obama with approximately 19.5% of the registered voters having voted thus far.

I am predicting a 4 to 5% win for Obama when all the votes are cast.

Doug D.
Orlando/Ft. Lauderdale FL

[madfloridian]

5. I am no statistician, but I do like those figures.

:hi: