You Guys And Gals Really, Really Need To Average All The Polls

[DemocratSinceBirth]

You will feel better...


Professor Sam Wang and Nate Silver who know a thing or two about polls state that it doesn't make sense to just look at one poll...By averaging all the polls in 04 Sam Wang nailed the popular and Electoral College Vote...


When I look at a good poll or bad poll and reacting accordingly I know that's just an emotional or primary response but I know, intellectually, it makes more sense to look at all of them...


PEACE

GO OBAMA

DSB

P.S. I was wearing my Obama button today...It's interesting to analyze the reactions of the people who see it...It's a great conversation starter...

[MadBadger]

1. Its really only a few concern trolls that are goin crazy over this

Now the CNN thing, thats a different story

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. What CNN Thing?

I watch MSNBC and FAUX when I need a laugh...

[MadBadger]

6. Somebody reported that McCain is getting free airtime on CNN on Wednesday

Its just Larry King

[HughMoran]

13. lol - is that it?

There are times when I want to bash some DUers in the face.

...overreacting freaks.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. They're not going to relax.

There is a small but vocal group here on DU that are convinced Obama is going to lose. Either because he's not hitting back harder (yes, when you're up, you should go negative in the final week!) or because they're going to steal it.

I'm so close to blowing this popsicle stand and leaving for the rest of the week. They're making this final sprint HELL.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Fear Is A Primary Emotion

But this "we're all doomed" shit is depressing...

We're all working hard...The future will reveal itself in the fullness of time...It is what it is...

[Flabbergasted]

3. I only look at Pollster....

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

[uponit7771]

7. RIGHT!!! The Gallup, Ras etc post showing close when there's no poll avg is gettin stupid

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. It's Natural To See A Bad Poll And Be Spooked

It's the reptilian brain...

But then you have to use the other parts of your brain...

[Shakespeare]

8. Talking Points Memo keeps a daily average posted on their site.

With complete breakdown, and state polls, too. The national polls are tightening up slightly, but not enough to indicate there's really much movement in McCain's direction.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Tightening Is Expected But I'm Not Going To Flip Out Over One Poll

~

[HughMoran]

11. Isn't that why we all look at RCP & Pollster.com?

At least I hope everyone looks there for the bigger picture.

:D

[Orsino]

12. And then ignore the average.

:D

But seriously, I feel that even the average of polling won't yield an accurate picture of the electorate--or even of the version of that picture that the goddamned voting machines will cough up.

[LesserFool]

14. Skepticism is normal; and should be used to take more action

Of course, skepticism about the outcome of the election is based on the historical realities of a desperate GOP scraping the bottom of the negative-ad barrel; and/or outright stealing an election if all else fails. But, instead of becoming despondent over the prospect, be proactive: work over-time to make it less likely to happen in your neck of the woods. And, if it does happen in your neck of the woods, take action to shine the light of day on it.

[Jennicut]

15. Someone around here posted all the battleground averages of

the Bush Kerry race in 2004 and they were all, except for one state, really very accurate. I trust that 6.8% RCP has at their website for the overall average. Gallup's 3 models are very confusing but it seems their 7% for expanded likely voters is where all the other polls are at the 5 to 7% range. I think all this "we are going to lose, Obama must hit back, McCain will steal it" crap is counterproductive. Get out there and vote and then do something positive for Obama. Whining about what you have no control over is not helpful and depresses the rest of us who are generally even-stevens and who usually stay positive. Its annoying.