This race effectively ends on FRIDAY NIGHT.

[Bicoastal]

No one except political junkies like us really cares about what happens over the weekend, and by Monday, it'll be too late for either candidate to make much of a game-changing impact.

Some people are counting the hours until next week. I'm counting the hours until Saturday.

[progressivebydesign]

1. not really. If you were aware of the 2004 campaign, you'll remember the Sunday night surprise.

Remember OBL's gift to Bush on Sunday night before the election? Yeah.. that video. And it did make a difference.

[thewiseguy]

2. Oh please.

:eyes:

Kerry was trailing Bush in the polls and the video made no difference.

[PresidentObama]

7. Kerry was tied in the polls...

Better check your facts.

This is from TPM the day before election day.

Marist ... Kerry +1
Fox ... Kerry +2
NBC ... Bush +1
Gallup ... Bush +2
ARG ... Tied
CBS/NYT ... Bush +3
Pew ... Bush +3

While these show Bush in the lead in 4 of the 7, consider this:

All the Marist poll calls were made Sunday. Half the Fox calls were made Sunday. On the other hand, Pew and CBS stopped calling on Saturday. NBC and Gallup both ran Friday through Sunday

The ones that showed Bush up by 3 percent were older. The newest polls from Marist on the day before election day showed Kerry up by one. The newest poll by Fox showed Kerry up by 2.

With the obligatory caveat that the margins are small and within the MoE, the pattern is hard to miss. The more recent the poll, the better margin for Kerry. And in the two most recent ones, he's ahead.

So, on balance there's a movement in Kerry's direction, albeit one which is quite small because so few voters are any longer up for grabs.

As far as the Bin Laden video, you've posted no evidence that it had no impact.

Terrorism was the biggest issue in the race. Saying the release of a tape of Bin Laden hours before the election had no impact is quite the statement to make, but not back up.

[thewiseguy]

9. He was behind in Gallup

That is what I look at. Bush had a very slim lead over Kerry and you could not read much over those slight changes at the end.

[PresidentObama]

10. Looking at one poll doesn't mean shit.

Especially if you're going to make the factually inaccurate statement that Kerry was behind.

He wasn't. They were tied.

[dennis4868]

4. i thought that was...

on Friday night before the election...

[Jersey Devil]

8. I thought that happened on Thurs or Friday

I don't think Sunday is correct

[msallied]

3. I agree. Hell, I think we junkies are the only ones paying the most attention even NOW. lol

Everyone I talk to says they can't wait for this to be over. lol

[tedoll78]

5. Once Friday night begins..

.. the media and punditocracy go into:
a) coverage of the ground game
b) final predictions
c) patting themselves on the back

Obama will have help with coverage on Wednesday, Thursday, and some of Friday because of the infomercial. There's going to be spinning and analysis happening on those days. So realistically, McCain's clock is about to run-out tomorrow night..

[liberal N proud]

6. You still have to get the people to the polls to vote

If they think it is over and become complacent and don't vote the result would be worse than all the disenfranchisement the GOP is guilty of.

[question everything]

11. I am not sure about candiates, when you have many ballot measures

as it is in California, many voters look over their ballot in that last weekend and make a decision. And, if you remember the primaries, many voters said that they did not make up their mind until actually facing the ballot.

We have to acknowledge that while many are really tired of the Republicans, many still have doubts about Obama.

I heard of a friend of a friend, older and pretty much a conservative that he will vote for McCain, but with a shaky hand because of Palin.