Breaking: New Pew Poll, Obama +16

[Hope And Change]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/28/10265/015/213/644567

[rockymountaindem]

1. It's tightening! IT'S TIGHTENING!!!!

TALK ME DOWN!!!!

Oh noes...

[JaneQPublic]

16. And why can't Obama close the deal?!?!? (nt)

[K Gardner]

29. He's just not connecting with the voters, is he ?

[Name removed]

65. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Fluffdaddy]

87. Yep it's tightening, like many know it would

[Connie_Corleone]

2. I'm concerned.

:scared:

[Smuckies]

3. Nice.

When we win Arizona and Indiana on 11/4, it will only make it better. :9

[darkism]

4. This is going to be a close race!

We might not get to bed on Election Night!

[progressiveforever]

Hot diggity DAMN! Wow!

[WI_DEM]

5. Wow! why are the tracking polls so different from the national polls done by NBC, CBS, PEW?

[kennetha]

6. Very seriously doubt the election will be decided by 16 pt.

more like 4-6

[progressiveforever]

9. true--but that is a good indicator of success

[gblady]

12. so long as it's decided

for OBAMA....I don't care the %.

[alcibiades_mystery]

26. You doubt anything good for Obama, since you want Obama to lose

:rofl:

[kennetha]

73. you sir, are a(n) .....

I don't usually call people names or stoop to silly sniping. But you tempt me. Once more, and I'll put you on ignore. How do you like them apples? Huh? Huh?


Check this out:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7628739&mesg_id=7628739">Farewell, a Fond Farewell, to our Friends the Republicans

[alcibiades_mystery]

76. You've become a Republican

It's embarrassing.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

77. Become?

lulz

[kennetha]

78. Sorry, I've got to do it. You're unworthy of any further attention. Ignore

How could I be a Republican when I've never ever voted for a single republican in my life? I'm the most left democrat you could ever know, you silly goose.

[alcibiades_mystery]

85. Poor kennetha running away

Poor baby never got over the primaries. Pathetic.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. We Need To Wait For The Strategic Vision National Poll For Confirmation

:sarcasm:

[SeeHopeWin]

32. OK, election will be decided by half of this or 8 points, a 350+ EV win for Obama!!!

[Two Sheds]

61. I'd piss all over myself if Obama won the PV by 8%

That would translate to oh....13 to 14 million votes in this election. That margin, which I do not for a minute expect, would be one-third of Bill Clinton's vote total from 1992.

sorry for the image in my subject line :evilgrin:

[high density]

7. lol, I figured that was a poll of NY or CA

Why are so many people still undecided? 12% undecided seems very high compared to other national polls.

[Blasphemer]

53. 8% undecided... 3% Nader.... 1% Barr... nt

[MadBadger]

8. Nice to see...but he wont win by that much

And we all know it too

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Pew Nailed 04 51-48 For Bush*

Maybe they are on to something...

It's GREAT for propaganda purposes; to crush our enemies' spirit...

[MadBadger]

20. Its great to Lift the RCP average back up after they booted off all the non-tracking polls today

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Intutitively It Feels High

But the chief guy at Pew used to be the director at Gallup so he knows polling..

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

49. As long as people vote...

...I still recall the Simpsons episode where Bart was going to win class president and then no one voted.

[Two Sheds]

62. and that led to the nightmare of the Martin Prince administration

nm

[Schulzz]

10. It's tightening.

McCain's lead against Bob Barr is tightening...:spray:
But this poll is certainly an outlier, just like the polls which have Obama ahead by just 3-4.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. The Only Thing That's Tightening Is McCane's And Failin's Sphincters

They must be doing shots of Milk Of Magnesia...

[GalleryGod]

75. Well said, Indeed!

Stole my thoughts exactly: It's SPHINCTER TIME!

[WeDidIt]

11. He's still lower tha his run against Alan Keyes!!!!

WHEN IS OBAMA GOING TO CLOSE THE DEAL!!!!!!11111one

[rockymountaindem]

18. You know, Alan Keyes is running

He was on the Colorado ballot so I assume he must be elsewhere.

[WeDidIt]

34. Yeah, I know

You know Obama beat Alan Keyes 70% (69.97) to 27% (27.05).

:evilgrin:

[speedoo]

13. Hammer. Nail. nt

[BlooInBloo]

15. roflmao!

[Marsala]

17. Okay, now that's just silly

No way does McCain have only 38%. Still, this outlier offsets the lower polls nicely.

[SeeHopeWin]

19. PRAISE THE GOOD LORD, Getting closer to the 29 percenters who support *....Let me add Charlie Cook,

the highly respected person, who watches these kind of numbers said that he has a very high opinion of the PEW...This number is very credible folks.

I predicted few weeks ago, it is going to be McCain 39.08% - Obama 58.22%, and yes this is my final answer!

[ProSense]

21. McToast. Check out the

map by state.

[Fluffdaddy]

22. You know I was going to post about how this is going to be year 2000 close

But, I'm going to leave you guys alone in your dream world.

Friendly tip. Have lots of coffee in your house on the 4th.

[scheming daemons]

24. Yay! Another Concern Post!

:eyes:

[Beetwasher]

28. And Your Evidence That It's Going To Be That Close Comes From

Right out of your ass?

[scheming daemons]

31. Link to Pew's final 2004 poll

http://people-press.org/report/232/slight-bush-margin-in-final-days-of-campaign

Bush 51
Kerry 48



I'd say that Pew is pretty accurate.

[Occam Bandage]

38. The fact that Obama is black, and that Fluffy is convinced that everyone will decide

at the last minute to vote against Black Guy for President.

[Fluffdaddy]

48. Yes.................That's my awful fear that is keeping me up at night

I have not got a goodnites sleep in weeks over this election

[scheming daemons]

50. Most states aren't as racist as PA, fluff.... and the BRadley Effect is a myth

[Fluffdaddy]

66. Pennsylvania is where I lived all my life 4 year in western PA. This is my frame of reference.

Winning Pa would be a closer..............But don't count on it

[Occam Bandage]

59. The "Bradley Effect" has been -0.3% over the last decade. That is to say, nothing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[Beetwasher]

60. Have You Tried Sleeping Under A Bridge?

It might help.

[Fluffdaddy]

64. Trolls sleep under Bridges. I hate Trolls

[Beetwasher]

69. Sure You Do

"The Bradley Effect is worrying the hell out of me."

[Fluffdaddy]

72. That's not a troll statement. Not for me. I wish I could see a perfect world like you guys

[Beetwasher]

74. Sure It's Not

I believe you. Really. I do. :rofl:

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

80. I will believe you're not sleeping well at night.

But not for the reasons you claim.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. I Willl Bet A $200.00Donation To DU That Obama Will Be Announced The Winner Before Midnight

That's when all the polls on both coasts will be closed...

[Fluffdaddy]

43. Nooooo That's 3AM where I'm at. That will prove my point

[scheming daemons]

54. I'll make the bet for Midnight Eastern

[Fluffdaddy]

68. For $200 to DU?

[scheming daemons]

70. Let's make it $50.... Bush's economy has made things tight

;-)


But yes... to DU.

[Fluffdaddy]

71. Bet...............If your are right, I will be trilled to lose that Fifty bucks

[scheming daemons]

23. Everyone please remember... Pew got '04 *EXACTLY* correct... 51-48 Bush

[bluestateguy]

27. Unless its backed up by another poll, it's likely an outlier

But hey, let their side freak out about polls a little for a change.

[scheming daemons]

35. Check out this

http://people-press.org/report/232/slight-bush-margin-in-final-days-of-campaign

Their final poll in 2004

Bush 51
Kerry 48


EXACTLY CORRECT.



I'd say their track record is pretty good.

[SeeHopeWin]

36. Newsweek 13 points, and the CBS 14 points? Close enough?

[HughMoran]

42. Yes, but this is needed to offset the right-leaning 3% polls

So, it all fits appropriately into the overall equation IMO.

[Alhena]

33. What is the party weighting?

[mohc]

41. Looking at their crosstabs

D-R-I 39-29-32

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. The Range Is From Five To Ten

That's not crazy high...

[HughMoran]

37. Pew points out the "weekend pattern" in the other tracking polls!!

15% likely voters?

:woohoo:

Wow, this is a bit of a relief.

[HughMoran]

40. Here's a direct link to the Pew site: McCain Support Continues Downward Spiral

http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines


McCain Support Continues Downward Spiral
Obama Leads by 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

[democrattotheend]

45. The early voting number only adds up to 89...weird

If you've already voted you can't be undecided...I guess the rest are people who refuse to say?

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

47. This is great news......

....FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!

[Blasphemer]

51. 53-34 amongst those who already voted and 56-37 amongst those who plan to vote early

Those are amazing numbers... at this point McCain is just going through the motions.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

52. "Obama Leads by 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted"

[Windy]

55. don't get complacent people. Work up until the polls close on the 4th!!!

Never think we've got this in the bag. Obama/Biden certainly doesn't!

[Two Sheds]

58. I already voted so I'm complacent as hell right now.

Tuesday I'm escorting a voter to the polls...my mother.

[yellowcanine]

67. No complacency here but this will work the other way imo - "get on the bandwagon" effect.

People do like winners. For example I would bet there are a lot of new Phillies fans in PA these days.

[Two Sheds]

56. Question from an innocent in the ways of polling...

Does Pew go into the average? The average of polls on yahoo.com "tightened" by one percentage point from yesteday pm to today am.

[4themind]

57. Lot's of undecideds but IMO the key thing is he's over 50% at 53%

and that's within two points of the aggregate tracking polls, as even the "tightening" poll aggregates still have Obama over 50%. It's just that those polls have fewer undecideds than the pew poll. It's not just the point spread that matters in these poll it's the point spread relative to the number of undecideds. This means that Obama could have opportunities to make this thing even more of a rout, or McCain could bring these undecideds (some of them protesting conservatives I'd bet) back home. Regardless, If obama wins by 53% (and that's assuming ALL of the undecideds go back to mCCain) I'll still be a happy camper

[Hamlette]

63. here's the RCP average for 2004

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

Why was I so convinced Kerry would win? Was I delusional, wishful thinking. Look at those polls. We were down in all of them at this point.

[Jennicut]

82. We were hoping he would pull of an upset and no one wanted to believe Bush could win again

It was too painful to think about. Kerry was not ahead at all like Obama is nor was Gore. Gore and Kerry both made up ground the last few days of the elections in 2000 and 2004 but for Gore it was stolen in FL and for Kerry there was suspicion in Ohio. Neither was enough to stop Rethugs from their vote stealing, the elections were so close it was hard to prove. That is why they want a divided country-they need to anger enough people or put fear into them and make it a close election. However, this time it seems like we may be past that, people woke up from their stupor and realized we are in trouble. Obama has a much better chance then Kerry or Gore did as he has been leading for a long time and up 5-8 points.

[Tribetime]

79. I'm smelling fresh baked PIE

[HughMoran]

81. Gonna be a fight 'till the end

Gallup O up 7 LV(exp), O up 2 LV (trad)

[Fluffdaddy]

84. Like I said .......................Year 2000 close

[wolverinez]

83. bumpkick punch

nm

[HughMoran]

86. Note that PEW incorporates cell phones too!

About the Survey

Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates among a nationwide sample of 1,500 adults, 18 years of age or older, from October 23-26, 2008 (1,125 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 375 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 127 who had no landline telephone). Both the landline and cell phone samples were provided by Survey Sampling International.

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2007 Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. The sample is also weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2007 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the sample.