Pollster.com has GA and MT as toss ups

[Waiting For Everyman]

I'm wondering if everybody except me already knows about this, but it surprised the heck out of me... especially Georgia. Well, I guess, both of them.

http://pollster.com/

It might not last, but it's cool to see. :)

*edit to fix typo of writing AL for GA. A little mental dyslexia there.

[Zynx]

1. That's Georgia there buddy.

[Waiting For Everyman]

8. Thanks, sorry... that's what I meant.

Was Georgia already as toss up? I hadn't seen that.

[frogcycle]

10. it's all the same to this VOL fan

:(

[MadBadger]

2. Ummm...I think youve located Alabama in Georgia

[Motown_Johnny]

3. it's OK, MTP had NC as VA....

[NC_Nurse]

6. Colbert was really funny on that mistake. He was great all night, IMO.

[BrklynLiberal]

9. He was exceptional tonight.

[matchstick]

4. Alabama, no way too many rednecks there....

[Occam Bandage]

5. Jawjah, you mean.

[NRaleighLiberal]

7. Electoral-vote.com has both Montana and North Dakota as ties!

If you look at the 2000 or 2004 numbers, this could be a little discussed indication of what is coming!

[Amonester]

12. I soooooo LOVE this "cartogram" :-)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Carto/Oct27-c.html

It kinda looks like a "red meat" crunch... :)

[John Q. Citizen]

11. MT has always been possible. It's going to be a hell of a lot of work, but it's

possible.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Montana makes more sense than Georgia

The partisan breakdown in Montana is basically the same as Missouri, 18% liberal and 36% conservative. That's only a few points low and high, respectively, from a true swing state. Missouri was 19-36 in 2004.

Montana suffers from lack of Democratic emphasis in most presidential cycles, due to isolation and lack of electoral votes. But it is definitely within reach.

I'd be shocked if Obama won Georgia. That state isn't close to logical partisan grasp, 14% liberal and 41% conservative in 2004. Factors like that overwhelm higher black turnout and all the hype. We're going to lose Georgia by comfortable margin.

[Yukari Yakumo]

15. Here in MT...

Obama has been buying several ads for primetime hours daily for weeks. The last time I saw a McCain ad was during the Olympics.

We have a Dem Gov and two Dem Senators (both the Gov and the Senator are expected to cruise to reelection).

Here's a key differece between the two most recent polls:

MSU-Billings poll (10/16-20)
Obama 44%
McCain 40%
Paul 4%
Barr 1%
Nader 1%
Undecided 10%

Kos/R2000 poll (10/15-16/08)
McCain 49%
Obama 45%
Other 3%
Undecided 3%

See the difference? The one that include the third party candidates has Obama in the lead. Without them, the picture changes. Ron Paul could very well cost McCain Montana.

[John Q. Citizen]

17. How are those partisan breakdowns derived?

Personal identification or some objective means?

MT has a lot of independents, both on the left and on the right. Nader got his highest percentages in 2000 in MT, a safe vote for those on the left here, since bush won by huge margins. Ron Paul does great in MT. Strong fund raising, lots of attendees at personal appearances.

I know Hillary couldn't have carried MT this year.

So I guess my point is that there is much more to the whole electoral political picture than assigned percentage values of a liberal/conservative scale. Not to discount that completely, but just to put it in perspective.

From years of personal experience knocking on doors in multiple states, i can tell you unequivocally that while Americans do tend to describe themselves far more often as conservative rather than as liberal, Americans views on the issues generally are nothing if not very liberal. This is as true in MT as it is in CA, ID, or Maryland. These liberal issue views, however, don't necessarily translate into votes for self identified or voter perceived liberal candidates.

I think that to some degree, Obama has been able to transcend voter self identification. He's done this with issues to a small degree, but he's mostly achieved this major feat by appearing what can only be described as "Presidential."

More important than cries of "Socialism" or for that matter, "Fascism" is that people perceive Obama as thoughtful, contemplative, decisive and real, rather than as McCain comes across, which is as trivial, petty, vindictive, and poorly stage managed. Erratic was a brilliant adjective. Far more salient than "socialist"

That's why Obama can win both MT and Georgia this year. Whether he does or not.

[Waiting For Everyman]

13. I just noticed too... Pollster has 272 "strong Dem". Yikes.

McC's screwed as it stands now. All of the toss ups could go his way AND the "leaning Dems" and he'd still lose.

[grantcart]

16. Early voting is looking very good in GA - AA = 35% of early vote while only 30% of pop

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html