Another Florida Poll Has Obama 49%, McCain 44%. Interesting Crosstabs.

[writes3000]

From DailyKos:

New Florida Poll (Datamar): Obama 49, McCain 44
by Ben P
Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 08:16:02 PM PDT

Quick diary. BTW, this is NOT the Suffolk poll that was released earlier today and showed Obama also with a 49 to 44 lead. This is another Florida poll, and the fourth one today showing Obama with a decent lead (3 to 5 points: Zogby, Rasmussen, Datamar, Suffolk). It appears Obama has made something of a comeback in the state starting at the end of last week. This poll was conducted on October 25 and October 26 so the data is fresh. Compared to the last Datamar Florida poll, released on October 13, this represents no change in the margin (that poll had Obama at 47 and McCain at 42), the only difference with this poll is that the number of undecideds is down to 3% of the sample. Anyway here's the link.

I should emphasize. THREE Florida polls have been released today, ALL showing Obama with a decent lead. Rasmussen, 51 - 47, Suffolk, 49 - 44, Datamar, 49 - 44

Also: as to this poll's internals, they're not especially favorable for Obama. Partisan breakdown, 43 D, 41 R; 12 African American. Interesting is that it also breaks down Latinos by ethnicity, although a majority don't identify themselves as Cuban or Mexican (or otherwise). Also strikes me that this poll is slightly undersampling Latinos.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/27/231127/40/540/644256

I admit I am not familiar with this poll so I leave it to others to investigate its validity.

[usregimechange]

1. Ooo, you said crosstabs, love me some crosstabs

[writes3000]

2. Let us know your assessment. nt

[Amonester]

3. Don't forget the fact that many "new" young voters don't have...

"home phones" (only cell phones)

If they're never called, (AND IF they'll vote for Obama/Biden in droves, as we "suspect" they will), then I suggest these polls don't "reflect" reality.

Do they call cellular phones owners? (I ask because I don't know if they do.)

[mrreowwr_kittty]

9. I only use a cell phone and have been polled by Rasmussen, FWIW. nt

[Amonester]

10. Thanks for this info.

:thumbsup:

[FreeState]

4. 41% have already voted - wow - from the comments on Kos

41% have already voted

According to the Ras internals,
31.25% have already voted (Early votes: O: 62, M: 38)

The party ID of early votes in Florida is 45D,40R,15I

McCain is in DEEP trouble in a state he must win.

[On the Road]

5. As Far as Undersampling Latinos,

it may be due to the historically lower turnout rate in that group. Just a thought.

[matchstick]

6. at what time are the polls closing on november 4 in FLA?

[unhappycamper30]

7. 8pm est.

[JCMach1]

8. As for Latinos, there is a huge Puerto Rican population in the I-4 corridor

They vote overwhelmingly Democratic. In fact, they equal the number of Cubans in S. Florida.