Some states will have different electoral votes in 2012. Where is growing/shrinking?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

There will be reapportionment after the 2010 census.

For years the population shifts were from the Great Lakes region to the sun belt... essentially all those sunny places where the housing crisis is now centered.

Are people still moving primarily to FL, CA, AZ, and NV, or are there different patterns now?

Are Ohio and Michigan still shrinking? Shrinking faster?

[marmar]

1. Wait until they run completely out of water out there.....

The GREAT LAKES REGION (I hate that stupid Rust Belt tag) will be in vogue again.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. changed it for you

[blue_onyx]

11. I agree...the need for water will eventually bring people back

[NC_Nurse]

2. NC is growing pretty fast.

I think several Southern states are.

[bookman]

4. Texas..

..but I like to think we're importing Dems.

:)

[yellowdogintexas]

8. which is why we are fighting hard to just get 5 more Dems in the House to get

a majority, ditch the evil Craddick and have the say over reapportionment

[GreenTea]

16. Texas may be in play in 2012 and on.

[THUNDER HANDS]

5. Lots of blue states in the Northeast will probably lose EVs

NY, NJ, Penn, Ohio, ect.

[Liberalboy]

6. The Intermountain west will gain

New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Wyoming

[Ediacara]

15. Wyoming is 1/2 the population of Montana and is the least populated state

Montana will certainly gain a seat before Wyoming.

[FreeState]

7. Check this site out

I just googled it so I have no idea how accurate it is... but:

The real 2010 numbers will undoubtedly differ, and Congress could change the rules for apportionment, but we thought we’d present this early look at what states would gain or lose Electoral Votes starting with 2012 based on those estimates:

+3: Texas
+2: Florida
+1: Arizona, California, Georgia, Nevada, Utah
-1: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Pennsylvania
-2: New York, Ohio

http://www.270towin.com/blog/electoral-college/electoral-votes-in-2012

[progressive_realist]

19. If those numbers are right...

The largest EV states in 2012 will be:
CA(56)
TX(37)
FL/NY(29)
IL/PA(20)
OH(18)
MI(17)
GA(16)
NC/NJ(15)

As compared to today:
CA(55)
TX(34)
NY(31)
FL(27)
IL/PA(21)
OH(20)
MI(17)
GA/NC/NJ(15)

No changes in ranking except Florida catching up to New York, and Georgia pulling ahead of New Jersey and North Carolina.

[torbird]

9. The good news is...

...that much of the population that is moving out of traditional "Democratic" states is, in fact, Democratic. Thus, states that have traditionally been Republican are seeing a big influx of blue voters (like my home state of NC).

New map still = Democratic win.

[musicblind]

10. I don't know if this is just the area of the state that I live in. But I honestly think that NC

will be expanding it's EC votes. It seems like more and more people are moving in and around various communities in this state. :)

[LaPera]

12. Talk about power.....Republicans will start off around 60 votes in the hole.. Shit, CA may

increase to 60 electoral votes (and congressional seats) all by itself, and all those electoral votes will go only to Democratic candidates!

Republicans would start presidential election 60 votes in the hole before they even got started.

However, the south will also have pick ups and the republicans own the south.... but TX, NM, AZ, FL will all be states up for grabs (even Texas I think) but not California it'll just get stronger democratically as long as there's a republican force out there.

[Seen the light]

13. Utah is definitely gaining a congressional seat

NC beat them by just a few thousand people this past time, Utah is virtually guaranteed one after 2010.

[blue_onyx]

14. Michigan may lose 1 electoral vote

I believe we are borderline so may or may not lose one. With our job loss, especially if Chrysler/GM merge eliminating 30,000 jobs, we'll lose more population. So I'm guessing we will, indeed, lose an EV.

I think I remember hearing NY is expected to lose 2.

People are still moving to the South and West so the gains will be there. I think FL, AZ, and NV will gain more so than CA. If I remember correctly, CA is expected to only gain one EV while those others will gain multiple EVs.

[ShadowLiberal]

17. Unfortunatley GOP leaning states generally are gaining, Dem leaning states generally are losing

The only good thing about this is that some of those states (like PA, and I say this as a guy who lives there) seem to be becoming more and more reliably democratic lately.

Because of our states losing people though we have to turn some states into reliable democratic ones.

Someone here posted that some western states are picking up a few EV's, they're definitely a place to grab some EV's. If we can unite Hispanics in the democratic party as strongly as African Americans are (and get Hispanics to vote a bit more often, they're the least likely race to vote unfortunately) then I think we could make some of those western states like Colorado and New Mexico much more solidly democratic.

Virginia I'm also feeling optimistic about staying competitive for years to come. The evidence is in our recent victories there. Before 2001 it was VERY rare for a democrat to win a statewide election there. Then Mark Warner's win in the governor election started a string of increasingly common democratic wins there. In 2005 another democrat became governor, in 2006 we won a senate seat, in just a week we're virtually certain to gain the other senate seat there. On top of all that the state GOP party just hasn't adapted to the reality that Virginia has become a much more moderate swing state, I mean they basically committed suicide in the senate race by having a caucus to ensure their losing hardcore conservative won the nomination.

On the downside for us however, if we lose Florida this election then I think we're going to have to admit that it's becoming more and more out of reach for us to win, and unfortunately Florida is growing in size.

[LaPera]

18. I disagree.

I think more states that republicans have traditionally counted on are will be more "in-play" as the industrial north east loses jobs and people - As people move south, more states are clearly becoming more in play for the Dems....Traditional republican states like AZ, CO, NC, VA, NV, and with New Mexico along with the left coast could make an all new west-southwest democratic strong hold, to go along with the New England states (and NY & NJ) down to Virginia & North Carolina.


And Florida, Illinois & Minnesota will always be in-play for the Dems.

[abumbyanyothername]

20. Not sure NV will continue to be +1 by then.

Not sure if NY will lose 1, but there certainly is a strong influx of Manhattanites settling into Venice (Beach, CA).

Nice new Avatar.