Intrade; Obama vs McCain trading over the last year.

[mathewsleep]

[goletian]

1. there isnt even enough time left before election day for mccain to make a comeback

[mathewsleep]

3. Intrade has been more accurate then polls in past elections.

[DCBob]

2. McCain line looks like the Dow Jones Index.

McCain is bankrupt of ideas and in need of a bailout.

[mathewsleep]

8. I think there is a direct connection.

[Aloha Spirit]

4. wow-exceot for the Palin bounce, Obama's growth is pretty linear.

[Yukari Yakumo]

19. One part that...

And one part RNC. Once the luster wore off, things clearly went back to normal.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

5. McFucked

[DCBob]

6. McCain will soon be trading in the single digits -- we should mark the occasion by..

ringing a bell or making or toast or something.

[mathewsleep]

7. Irish car bombs!

[Laelth]

9. That's quite comforting.

Not too reliable, of course, but still comforting.

The United States is a LIBERAL Country.

:dem:

-Laelth

[mathewsleep]

10. It's more reliable then polls.

These people are putting real money on this shit, they do there homework.

[Laelth]

13. Intrade is far more volitile than the polls, and it's not scientific.

Not everyone can afford to "bet" on the election. I am not saying your faith is entirely misplaced. Intrade reflects real-time sentiment of bettors well, but the bettors are unlikely to be more accurate than a scientific poll of likely voters.

As I said, it's still comforting.

The United States is a LIBERAL Country.

:dem:

-Laelth

[dbmk]

15. A note though

The trading and bettors _are_ basing their trading on the polls of likely voters.

It represents a collective belief in those polls - and a willingness to stake money on it.

Its hardly more volatile than the polls, which the graph does not support either. It just swings further out as it is a win/lose bet - not distribution of EVs or popular vote.

That being said, it is ofc. still just people betting.

[DavidDvorkin]

11. Cool!

Thanks for posting that.

[dbmk]

12. The state trading currently "believes" it is going to be 375 EVs afaict. nt.

[Happyhippychick]

14. McToast better call the crash cart.

[mathewsleep]

17. I'm sure he has one close at all times.

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. ROFL

That's brutal.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. I did better than I expected

Buying Obama contracts 4 times during the September nonsense when McCain surged. Basically I have a ton on Obama at even money, the way it averages out. My "Go" price was 55 but I was prepared to settle for 60.