http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/27/mccain_new_hampshire/Where the road ends for John McCain
His Straight Talk Express bolted out of New Hampshire eight years ago. Now the candidate is running on empty.
By Walter Shapiro
Oct. 27, 2008 | CONCORD, N.H. -- After being resurrected twice in New Hampshire primaries, John McCain finally appears to be running out of Granite State miracles. Fergus Cullen, the state GOP chairman, was trying to put the best possible face on a bleak political landscape here, when he said over lunch on Thursday, "McCain's doing his job keeping it competitive here in New Hampshire." It is telling when "competitive" is the most upbeat adjective that a party chairman can muster.
That verdict was offered before the Boston Globe released a New Hampshire poll Sunday, which showed Barack Obama leading McCain by a lopsided 54-to-39 percent margin in a state that John Kerry carried by just 9,000 votes in 2004. "What we've found is a depletion of enthusiasm among Republicans," said University of New Hampshire pollster Andy Smith, who conducted the survey for the Globe. "Some of the more marginal Republican voters are now not getting through the 'likely voter' screen."
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Another reason why New Hampshire voters do not seem to be buying the McCain the Maverick brand is that the makeup of the state's electorate has dramatically changed since the 2000 primary. The University of New Hampshire's Smith estimates that 32 percent of the New Hampshire voters this November either did not reside in the state in 2000 or were too young to cast ballots. These recent migrants to New Hampshire, along with voters in their 20s, are significantly more likely to identify themselves as Democrats than the state's traditional voters. These demographic shifts help explain why the Democrats behind Gov. John Lynch swept the 2006 elections, winning control of the lower house of the Legislature for the first time since 1922, and defeating the state's two Republican congressmen.
But, in the end, what may matter most is that McCain has failed to run a campaign that appeals to New Hampshire's quirkily independent voters who prize bipartisanship, fiscal conservatism and social moderation. This is not a state apt to be won with Sarah Palin (a 39 percent favorable rating in the Globe poll) and scare tactics about Bill Ayers. Instead, this is the state at the beginning and the end of the road for the GOP nominee. John McCain's presidential dreams were born in the snows of New Hampshire in 2000 and almost certainly perished amid the autumn folliage eight years later.