Sabato: After ruling out earlier, now says Democrats have a good shot at Senate "Magic 60"

[DeepModem Mom]

CNN: Senate Democrats eye 'magic 60'
October 26, 2008
From Kate Bolduan

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sens. Mitch McConnell and Elizabeth Dole are two top Republicans lawmakers who find themselves fighting to hold on to their Senate seats. They're also two reasons why Democrats are talking 60 -- the number of seats needed to secure filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

"We are feeling really good that we are going to pick up a successful amount of the larger number of seats and have a successful election. As for 60? It is possible," said New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, who runs campaign operations for the Senate Democrats. Winning what's commonly called the "magic 60" would maximize the Democrats' ability to push through a Democratic agenda and would virtually prevent Republicans from blocking legislation on the Senate floor....

***

Neither party has won such broad power of the Senate for three decades, but this year, Democrats are buoyed by an unpopular Republican president and a struggling economy. "With every day they get closer. There are races now that are competitive that were not competitive a month ago," said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

Of the 35 Senate seats on the line this year, 23 are held by Republicans. Five Republican senators are retiring: Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Wayne Allard of Colorado, John Warner of Virginia, Larry Craig of Idaho and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.

Duffy predicts Democrats will score a net gain of between seven and nine Republican seats, in states reaching from Oregon to New Hampshire. Democrats currently control the Senate. Although it's split evenly with 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans, two independents -- Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut -- caucus with the Democrats. If the Democrats pick up nine seats, it would push them over the top....

***

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said Democrats have a good shot at reaching a 60-seat majority in November, a possibility he all but ruled out earlier this year. "The fundamentals of this election year could not be more Democratic," Sabato said. "You've got a terrible economy, a deeply unpopular president and an unpopular war. You put those elements together and it's going to produce a Democratic victory. ... The only question is, what size?"

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/26/senate.majority/index.html?iref=nextin

[Botany]

1. Do not trust professors w/ bad rugs

[Alter Ego]

2. 60 isn't happening unless we get an absolute tsunami--bigger than 2006.

2 of these 3 races would have to win: Martin v. Chambliss, Lunsford v. McConnell, Musgrave v. Wicker.

Assuming we get: Udall, Udall, Shaheen, Warner, Begich (which is no guarantee now), Franken (see Begich), Hagan, and Merkley, we'd need a LOT of things to fall our way.

[Droopy]

3. What do you say?

We might get meaningful health care reform after all.

[Barney]

4. But what will Lieberman do

We currently have 49 Democrats plus Sen. Sanders plus Sen. Lieberman, which makes 51.

If, and it's a big if, but if we pick up nine seats, we will have 58 Democrats plus Sanders plus Lieberman, which would make 60.

Lieberman would like to stay on the Majority side, and keep his Committee chairmanship, but given his leanings lately, and his active campaigning for McCain, I would not count on him to stop a Republican filibuster.

[Sebastian Doyle]

6. Bernie can be counted as being one of us, Holy Joe can't.

I hope we can hit 60 without that backstabbing schmuck.

[Doremus]

7. With any luck we won't need him.

But should the occasion arise that we do, we can reward him with some small token ... as one would do a dog for performing a trick.

That will take a senate leader with balls though, someone used to cracking the whip at unfaithful cretins .... someone like Hillary.

:evilgrin:

[pgh_dem]

8. There will be other republicans who watch the tsunami

and might be eager to 'reach across the aisle to break gridlock in washington' before 2010.

Either way, it's an embarrassment of riches to get anywhere near 60.

[WI_DEM]

5. Sabato says if Dems pick up 9 seats that with Bernie and Lieberman we would be at 60--

but I wouldn't trust Lieberman. Let's hope we pick up ten seats so that Lieberman won't matter on closure.

[Jennicut]

9. I'll be happy with 5 or 6 new seats. Remember we also have very moderate Rethugs

that will vote with us.