Yes, Obama will probably win. But will he have a mandate?

[FlyingSquirrel]

Duh, of course he will. Or should. But see, the Repukes like to play their little games and so they've attempted to deny three of the past four Democratic presidents the "mandate".

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In 1960, Kennedy carried four fewer states than Nixon, won less than 50% of the popular vote, and many claimed he did not even win the popular vote (he won by about 113,000).

In 1976, Carter carried four fewer states than Ford, so many Repukes sneered at him for that as well.

In 1992 Clinton failed to win 50% of the vote due to Perot's independent run. Funny, the Repugs didn't have a problem with it when Nixon only got 43.4% of the vote in 1968 thanks to George Wallace.

In 1996 Clinton once again failed to win 50% - he got 49.24% - as again Perot entered the race. Sorry pal, no mandate.

In 2000, W. lost the popular vote to Gore but did win ten extra states (counting FL); despite OBVIOUSLY not having a mandate, he governed as though he did and went on to completely ignore the rest of us.

In 2004, W. won the popular vote, got more than 50%, and won 12 more states than Kerry. Though many of us feel they stole it again, the general Democratic public - while depressed - was not up in arms.

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The bar is set high for Democratic presidents. In order for a clear mandate to be seen, in addition to winning the EV they must do the following:

(1) Clearly take more than 50% of the popular vote; and

(2) Carry a majority of states

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By those standards, Obama may soon become the first Democratic president since LBJ to measure up.

(1) He is hovering right at 50% vs 43% for McCain, with no strong third-party candidate to take away votes. If half the remaining undecideds go to Obama, with 2% to other candidates, Obama should win at least 52% of the popular vote.

(2) He has a clear, strong lead (6.5% or greater) in 24 states (plus D.C.); he has a smaller lead (0.1 to 4.4%) in seven other states, and also has an outside chance in at least two other states. Trends are going his way so far, and he should have no trouble winning at least a simple majority in the state race.

As far as EV goes, Obama stands a very good chance of winning at least 359 which would mean he had won over twice as many as McCain. Clinton won 370 and 379, but remember that wasn't enough for the Repukes because he didn't win the popular vote. Obama should easily exceed W's totals of 271 and 286.

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This is why the Repukes are really freaking out. Obama stands to become the first president since LBJ that they can't somehow find fault with, as far as his numbers go. It'll be a clear mandate for our platform and Obama's agenda.

And it'll be a thing of beauty.

:toast:

[DemzRock]

1. W lost in 2000, but acted like he got 90% of the vote. So what the heck, sure. Mandate. n/t

[Occam Bandage]

2. "Mandate" is a word that only sounds like it carries meaning. nt

[Sarah Ibarruri]

3. I agree. Who the hell started the constant usage of the word, mandate? Some Repuke? nt

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. Almost certainly it was a Repuke. n/t

[Sarah Ibarruri]

8. I think you're right! nt

[opihimoimoi]

4. The Bush/McCane has freaked America no end...Palin is adding to the GOP Pain.

All of a sudden....people are looking at the horrid results under the GOP Leadershop....and it sucks...

Then, the People are barraged by daily BS CRAP from the GOP...very tiring....and the Negativity is overwhelming in its stench.

Buh Bye GOP

[grantcart]

6. Obama's mandate will seem huge for the simple fact that he will not be facing a unified opposition

On Nov 5th The Republicans will start tearing itself apart and it will therefore be something like this


Obama 55%

McCain supporters 10%
Palin supporters 15%
Establishment Republicans 10%
Economic conservatives 10%

[Puzzler]

7. Let's see...

... Bush "won" (or lost) by the tiniest of vote margins, and yet he had a "mandate" to pursue a radical RW agenda.

[MannyGoldstein]

9. Given All Of The Rethugs Who Are Crossing Over

A mandate it is.

[frogcycle]

10. if he wanta a mandate, that's fine with me - but Michelle might object

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

12. .

:spank:

[Lord Helmet]

11. his mandate is to un-fuck the mess

[lin_e65]

13. Obama's Mandate

It doesn't matter what the republidevils claim. Obama's mandate comes from us. It's up to us to use the telephone, the mail, the email and let the washingtonians know where we stand and in what direction we want this country to go in. Do you think all the dems are going to back Obama? Remember, the mind set in Washinton is "me first". That has to stop. It's the people first and we have to remind them of that.

[FlyingSquirrel]

14. Very good point, and welcome to DU!

:hi:

[Cha]

15. Obama and Biden will set out to do

what they were elected to do and the repukes can go take a flying fuck at a doughnut ..like they always do.

[FlyingSquirrel]

16. 60... 60... 60...

Dreamin'

:)