IBD poll bad weights

[lessthanjake]

This poll put Obama ahead by only 1.1%. However, some of the results are suspect.


1. Ideology
Conservatives:
Obama: 21%
McCain: 69%

Liberals:
Obama: 87%
McCain 7%

Moderates:
Obama: 57%
McCain: 29%

In this election, the gap between liberals and conservatives will probably be smaller than usual, BUT let's just use the 2004 numbers. In 2004, the electorate was: 21% liberal, 45% moderate, and 34% conservative, according to CNN exit polls.

If you weight the candidates numbers for this based on the 2004 percentages for liberals, moderates, and conservatives, Obama ends up ahead 51% to 38%.

2. Union Households

Yes
Obama: 59%
McCain: 29%

No
Obama: 43%
McCain: 46%

In 2004, people in union households made up 24% of the electorate. Conversely, those not in union households made up 76%.

If you weight this based on 2004 percentages of the electorate, Obama should be ahead 47% to 42%

3. Community
Doing the same thing for urban, suburban, and rural, the results are quite odd. If people libe in urban, suburban, and rural areas in the same percentages as they did in 2004 and the IBD poll is correct, McCain would be ahead 49 to 40.

4. Youth Vote
This is all not mentioning the fact that this poll has McCain ahead by 52% among the youngest age group.


Basically, the weights of this poll are off. Either that or their small sample size for some of these things has screwed the sub-group numbers. However, it shows it to be unreliable.