Democratic Wave Continues to Build by Larry Sabato

[WI_DEM]

Before we give our latest updates for the Electoral College, Congress, and the governors, let's focus briefly on what is happening in the voter turnout arena. We've been monitoring early voting in states such as North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Colorado and it is abundantly clear that registered Democrats are turning out at extraordinary rates, at least so far, and Republicans are not. Take the Tar Heel State, for example. Already 629,296 people have voted early, well above the pace of 2004. Democrats are over 56% of the 2008 total, compared to just 45% in 2004. African-Americans are about 30% of the early vote total, compared to only 17% in 2004. (Our thanks to Crystal Ball contributor Justin Sizemore for this data.) True enough, registered Democrats could be voting for McCain, and if you are a Republican and want to whistle past the graveyard, feel free to believe that. Also true: Late votes count just as much as early votes, but the early voting disparity between the parties in many states is another indication of the "enthusiasm gap" favoring Democrats--a phenomenon we have observed and written about here at the Crystal Ball since the start of the nominating season in early January.

This year we will be surprised if turnout isn't between 135 million and 140 million out of the 212 million universe of voters. A turnout like this, representing two-thirds of the electorate, would even exceed that of 1960, when 63% of adult Americans voted (age 21 and up, at that time). The 1960 turnout represented the modern high water mark for voter turnout.

Of the two shifts, by far the most significant is VIRGINIA, which we are moving from pure toss-up to LEANS OBAMA. We have been very cautious about the Old Dominion, in part because it's been our home for the better part of six decades. More than most, we know how tough this state can be for a Democratic presidential candidate. But while we continue to disbelieve the national polls showing Obama winning Virginia by 10 percentage points, we now believe that Obama has built a small edge of two or three points in the state. The reasons are clear: Bush, the disastrous economy, the demographic growth of Northern Virginia and its strong Democratic tilt, the momentum built up by recent Democratic victories (Mark Warner in 2001 and soon 2008, Tim Kaine in 2005, and Jim Webb in 2006), and the remarkable voter registration and voter contact efforts of a literal army of Obama staffers and volunteers in the state for a full year.

But it is more than that. The McCain campaign and the state GOP appear to have had a death wish. McCain's staff refused to believe Virginia was truly competitive for too long, and the McCain-Palin visits were few. McCain's brother called Northern Virginians "Commies" and one of McCain's most prominent spokespersons said they were not the "real Virginia." Generally, it is difficult to win the votes of people you are insulting.

The second shift is NORTH DAKOTA, from Leans McCain to Toss-Up. This may be a temporary change of color, but we have seen too many polls that are tied in North Dakota to ignore. We also discussed the state situation with two prominent North Dakotans in high public office, one from each party. Both thought McCain would eke it out, but they agreed that an Obama upset is not impossible. Think about this: North Dakota, won by George W. Bush by over 27 percentage points in 2004, is being discussed here as highly competitive. McCain may well win in the end but this one shouldn't even be vaguely close.

With the shifts of Virginia and North Dakota, Obama now has 318 electoral votes and McCain has 171.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/democratic_wave_continues_to_build