Okay I'm confused, how does McCain winning PA

[holiday]

help things?

Doesn't he need to win more than PA?

[Hamlette]

1. only NV

which will offset his expected losses in IA, NM, VA and CO

he would then have 273, assuming he holds other Bush states including FL and OH

[holiday]

2. So he HAS to win Fl, Oh, NV and PA?

[BlooInBloo]

3. Pretty much.

[WeDidIt]

5. And he ahs to win MO, NC, IN, and ND, too. n/t

[holiday]

8. wow

but the race is tied right msm? lol

[321Outright]

13. check out this interactive map-

http://www.270towin.com/
great place to play around with scenarios

[WeDidIt]

4. If he wins ALL Tossups And Pennsylkvania, he wins

Unfortunately for him, RCP moved Ohio from "tossup" to "Leans Obama" this morning.

[holiday]

6. and Obama only needs to win a couple of the tossups

[serrano2008]

7. Yes...Obama needs to win a couple of the toss up states, McCain has to win ALL of them

[nerddem]

9. it's a fairly viable path

he can give up several bush 04 states but still win with a pa pickup. iowa has long been a foregone conclusion, but he's on track to more than likely lose nevada and new mexico. if virginia really is tenuously reliable for obama, then by keeping colorado (which has been teetering lately), he wins with pa.

if obama can seal the deal in virginia and colorado, he can afford to lose pa.

[WinkyDink]

15. Sure, if by "viable", you mean "totally impossible".

[nerddem]

24. i just worry about these numbers being real

i mean, look at new hamphire, on the eve of the election, we were up by an average of 9.5, yet we lost by 3

call me a nervous nellie

[leftist.]

10. Not to mention how bad your strategy is when you need to win a state you arne't going to win

[LiberalAndProud]

11. Making a last stand in Arizona would look silly.

Winning PA (NOT.Going.To.Happen) effort doomed to failure.

[Mooney]

19. I'm hoping that his last stand

will see him, the night before the election, campaigning vigorously in front of his own house.

[kennetha]

12. If this were poker, McCain would have folded his hand by now

But there's no folding in Politics. So he has to play his losing hand and take his licks.

He's trying for Pennsylvania cause that's his only real hope -- and it's a slim hope at that. If Virginia is really a goner then he simply cannot win w/out Pennsylvania.

[Cosmocat]

16. The holdum anology ...

he is trying to catch an inside straight holding an off suit 5 and 9 (and BO is holding a pair of Kings, while working on a flush draw).

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

23. It's more like Obama's working on a straight-flush draw, but you're right. (nt)

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

21. Actually, he can't win without PA at all either way.

He's absolute toast in IA, NM, and CO, essentially having given up on those states already. He must win OH, FL, AND PA to keep any hope alive, as losing any one of them tips the race to Obama.

And you're right - PA is likely beyond his hope too, but he can't fold.

[scheming daemons]

14. A) He has ONE narrow victory path available, and it includes PA and B) he needs to ...

...show his "troops" that he is on offense in at least ONE blue state.

[WinkyDink]

17. MCCAIN WON'T WIN PA. Can we STOP this nonsense??

[HughMoran]

18. Every hour or so someone posts this question

The answer remains the same - he doesn't!

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

20. Given that he's given up on every blue state but PA, and looks to have given up IA, CO, and NM...

He'd have to essentially run the table in every state he's competing in. Under the scenario where McCain wins PA and loses the states I've mentioned already, the race would be 252-184, with 102 EVs to go. The leftover states are NV, MO, IN, OH, FL, VA, and NC. He would then have to win at least OH, FL, VA, NC, and either MO or IN to win. That's his only path to victory at this point, which is why he is running in PA - because at this point, he MUST win PA, FL, AND OH, or it's game over.

[kennetha]

22. If he can win PA and somehow hold onto VA

then he has a lot more room for error. PA + VA would give him a bit of breathing room. He could then afford to lose several more l Bush states -- NV, Colordao. NM, and MO -- and still win as long as he won the rest of the Bush states, including OH, FL, NC.

It's a VERY long shot. But it's the only shot he's got.

I think we're going to know pretty early on if McCain has a chance. If he loses VA and any of PA or OH or FL or NC, he's pretty much toast and we either go party or go to sleep.

. ONly if McCain takes either PA or VA and sweeps OH, FL, NC, are we in for a long nail-biter of a night. If by some incredible run of luck, McCain manages to do this, then Obama will have to take a stand further west -- in Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada. If he gets Missouri and PA it's over. If he gets PA but not MO, we still win it with CO.

Any way, the long and short of it is that OBama has a LOT of ways to win -- a lot of ways out, as they say in poker parlance. McCain's got precious few ways out.