Pollster.com morning update 17 state polls plus Quinnipiac and Big 10 link

[grantcart]

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/morning_status_update_for_thur.php


Yesterday's 17 new statewide and 12 new national poll releases look like a picture of stability in the race for President. The state of Washington shifts back to strong Obama dark blue, but otherwise, the new surveys show mostly random change in both directions.

At the state level, 11 of the 17 polls show movement of at least a point in Obama's direction, 4 in McCain's direction since the last survey by the same pollster. If we focus only on the 9 that follow up on previous polls conducted earlier in October, they have a hint of more recent gains by Obama: 6 show movement in Obama's direction, 2 in McCain's direction and 1 with no net change.






The impact on our trend estimates within the more contested states is again mostly offsetting. The margin shifts slightly in Obama's direction in 6 states and in McCain's direction in 4. Over the past week, Obama's margins have increased in 13 of the more competitive states, McCain's in 7.



In the state of Washington, a new Elway survey showing Obama leading by 19 points (55% to 36%). That bumps Obama's lead on the Washington trend estimate to 9.3%, enough to qualify for "strong" Obama status.


Florida is one state that has shown significant movement back to McCain. Although Obama still leads by two points on our trend estimate there (48.1% to 45.9), the margin has narrowed from a 6.1% Obama lead a week ago. Yesterday's new Mason-Dixon survey, showing a dead heat of McCain 46%, Obama 45% helps confirm that tightening.

At the national level, the new surveys again bump up Obama's margin slightly for the fourth day in a row. Of the eight national trackers, yesterday's releases shifted margins slightly in Obama's direction on four (including Gallup's "expanded" likely voter universe), in McCain's direction on two and showed no change on two.




On Edit
Quinnipiac and Big 10 Polls


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223

It's still the economy as Sen. Barack Obama rolls up support among groups who have not supported a Democrat for decades to lead Republican Sen. John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.


With 12 days to go, Sen. McCain is narrowing the gap in Florida, but fading in Ohio and barely denting Sen. Obama's double-digit lead in Pennsylvania.


No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls show:
Florida: Obama up 49 - 44 percent, compared to 51 - 43 percent October 1;
Ohio: Obama up 52 - 38 percent, widening an October 1 lead of 50 - 42 percent;


http://www.bigtenpoll.org/


As the race for the White House enters its final days, the Big Ten Battleground Poll shows Barack Obama holds significant leads over John McCain in eight crucial Midwest states.

The individual surveys of between 562 and 586 randomly selected registered voters and those likely to register to vote before the election in each of the states were conducted by phone with live interviewers from Oct. 19-22 and were co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein with the cooperation of colleagues from participating Big Ten universities. The polls each have a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. The states included in the poll were Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota, home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference.




Big 10 Polls


Head-to-head results for individual states
Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%

Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 40 percent, compared to 54 - 39 percent last time.

[Schulzz]

1. If anybody was really concerned about Battleground tracking, you have to look for a new poll

to be concerned about. It's back to Obama +4:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102308_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

And I still don't trust this poll.

[grantcart]

2. maybe they can get concerned about the 7-11 cup purchase in Western PA

[grantcart]

3. ..