New Zogby Obama 52.2 ( + .6 ) McCain 40.3 ( -1.7 )

[jezebel]

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1605

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 52.2%, McCain 40.3%

Obama's base is solid; McCain's is showing cracks


UTICA, New York - Democrat Barack Obama has slowly built a 12-point lead over Republican John McCain, consolidating support among young voters, Hispanics, and independent voters while McCain's support, even among his Republican base, is fading heading down the stretch, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama now has a huge lead among young voters, independents, and Hispanic voters. It's obviously not over. Frankly, this could tighten up and then loosen up again before Election Day. We saw movement on Election Day in New Hampshire, but at least for now, Obama has a very big lead. In the absence of news, McCain is not connecting. He seemed to be connecting during and immediately after the last debate, but got lost in issues that are not on people's minds. At some point, there are some issues that just overwhelm, and McCain has been particularly weak on the economy. He misstated the problem, confused his position, acted in a frantic way, and then looked like he wanted to run away from it. Meanwhile, Obama has been cool and confident, which worked for FDR in 1932 and worked for Ronald Reagan in 1980."

"I am very comfortable with our sample, especially given our track record in the last three presidential elections. Look at other polls and ask - Do they have enough college educated respondents? Enough Hispanics? Enough young voters? We do. And we have more Republicans in our sample than anyone else."

MORE AT LINK

[RagAss]

1. Oh My !

[Bicoastal]

2. ZOMGby!

[Thrill]

3. Freepers on Suicide watch

Zogby use to be their favorite poll.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. But they'z haz that AP poll to hang their hatz on!

[Bicoastal]

6. Never even HEARD of the polling company AP used.

[mikiturner]

5. Oh my nt

[Bicoastal]

7. I love how confident and proud Zogby is of his often wacky techniques and odd results.

[bluestateguy]

8. Like gettin' frogs in a wheelbarrow

That's how it must feel for the loony right. One poll closes up a bit, another opens up. Then another poll closes up a bit, but then, oh whoop, a new poll opened way up. Then the first poll that closed up, opens up.

This was how I felt as a Kerry supporter in 2004.

[scheming daemons]

9. Joe the plumber is showing his crack.....

heh

[davidpdx]

14. Oh Dear

You are right...

[BzaDem]

10. Great lead, but Zogby made a similar mistake in the California primary. He oversampled Hispanics,

young voters, etc. He had Obama up by 13 and he lost by 10 (a 23 point error). Hopefully he has learned from that mistake.

[Marsala]

11. I don't trust his poll at all

He showed HUGE movement towards Obama in a time period in which Gallup and Rasmussen were fairly stable. Also, his weighting is very weird. He has Republicans making up almost as much of the electorate as Democrats but somehow gives Obama an enormous lead anyway by way of having him lead in Independents to a large degree.

[Sodan]

12. The Zogby poll for the 2004 National election...

...was the most accurate just before Election Day - of any polls.

[BeyondGeography]

13. Things have gone from "Fuck Zomby," to "Down, Boy!"

What a turnaround.

[usregimechange]

15. Ths is brand spankin new guys

[lessthanjake]

16. I am suspect of Zogby's erraticism

Zogby's numbers are too erratic. The electorate does NOT move that far, that fast. As such, his polls tend to move from being an outlier one side to an outlier on the other. I think the reason for this is that he manipulates his formulation a little bit to make this happen, so that his polls conform to a certain trend in the campaign, which he then describes as the reason for the big shift. As such, id say he is trying to get a story out of this huge shift towards Obama.

[Colobo]

17. Power! Gobama!