Internal Obama poll shows him only 2 points ahead in PA

[ClarkUSA]

An internal poll from Sen. Barack Obama's campaign in Pennsylvania has him just two points ahead of Sen. John McCain, according
to The Hill.

An internal Barack Obama campaign poll has the Democrat ahead of John McCain by just two percentage points.

WILK radio host Steve Corbett said Tuesday he obtained an Obama campaign e-mail about the internal poll showing
a tight race. Pollster.com's trend line of public Pennsylvania polls has Obama leading McCain 54 percent to 38 percent.

Obama's Pennsylvania communications director Sean Smith said on Corbett's show that the field organizer who sent
the e-mail may have been trying to energize Obama volunteers. Smith wouldn't confirm the internal poll numbers,
but he said that the e-mail was sent without permission and that the campaign worker has since been reprimanded.

UPDATE: The poll is apparently from last week. But it may help explain Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell's (D) call for
Obama to campaign more in his state and McCain's renewed emphasis there.

It may also explain http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/amandascott/gGg3fB">this. For those of you who can, please consider coming out and helping Team O in Pennsylvania.

UPDATE 2: Joe Klein and David Gergen is talking about it being close in PA and referring to this poll right now. (Wed., 10:40 PM ET)

"Change never comes without a fight." ~ Senator Barack Obama in Richmond, Virginia today

[Bicoastal]

1. Wasn't this proved to be BS?

[ClarkUSA]

3. Link?

I am reading and hearing about it, with no disclaimer from Team Obama.

[writes3000]

9. Local Field Organizers aren't told the polling numbers.

The campaign keeps those very, very close to the vest.

[ClarkUSA]

18. Team O local field organizers don't tell big lies to manipulate grassroots volunteers, either.

The story isn't being denied by Team Obama... and I have a hard time believing this is all about manipulating volunteers in PA.
If that's the case, why not do it for every battleground state?

[Bicoastal]

29. Clark, no offense, but you're really being thick about this.

It clearly got started as a rumor by someone working on the ground, and in a Telephone-esque way made its way up the media to the MSM. (Definitely wouldn't be the first time.)

But it's not being denied by Team Obama because the rumor HELPS them. They WANT McCain to catch on to the rumor think he has a fighting chance in Pennsylvania so he'll take his eye off the ball in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. Ed Rendell--they got him on for an interview on this, and I don't think he wanted to downplay the importance of his state or the work that had to be done by volunteers. Or maybe he honestly bought into the rumor as well. But bottom line is, there's something screwy about "internal campaign polls" showing +2 when the lowest "public" polls show +8 and the highest show +12. Where do all those extra Republican votes come from? Especially when records show we've registered WAY more new voters than the GOP has?

Because if it were TRUE--why in hell wouldn't they be campaigning every day in the state? And I suspect the McCain team knows its fake too, because they AREN'T spending much time in Pennsylvania either. Look at their schedule if you don't believe me.

[ClarkUSA]

35. Bicoastal, you're the one who said this was "BS" and then offered no proof to back it up.

Who's BSing?

Your "don't worry" scenario is pure conjecture. Obama can't be campaigning "every day" in the state because there are other
battleground states to worry about. By the way, Michelle was in Pittsburgh this week. And Obama was in the state for a 4
rally day recently.

It will be interesting to see what his schedule is like next week.

[Bicoastal]

43. I didn't say this was disproved. I said I thought I remember someone disproving it. But LOOK:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/mccain-brings-hope-to-pennsylvania.html

This is the best breakdown yet of why the "Pennsylvania problem" is a combination of BS, rumor, and bluff--because it's the ONLY WAY MCCAIN CAN MAYBE POSSIBLY WIN, and that's why it's gaining so much attention. 52% of the state's registered voters are Dems. 33% are Republicans. The rest are independents. These are recent numbers. Unless Pennsylvania has waaaaaay too many Democrats voting for McCain--How does that add up to a +2 lead?

Seems to be right in line with the polling to me.

[ClarkUSA]

52. Hmm...

I've got to wake up early tomorrow and head out organizing my PA teams tomorrow again. All I know is in the past week,
the message has gotten more urgent and the visits from Barack/Biden/Clintons/Michelle in the past 1.5 weeks have
been for good reason.

'Night.

[Bicoastal]

Night--archimedes is being rude, but I think he's right.

Obama and team are pulling out of Pennsylvania. But the message is getting urgent EVERYWHERE!

[ClarkUSA]

72. "Obama and team are pulling out of Pennsylvania." Um, no.

They've put out an all-points bulletin for help in the Philly area in the past few days and we're working harder than ever
there now. I'm on lunch break right now but I have to get back to organizing on the ground as soon as I'm done with this
brief DU posting period. PA does NOT have early voting, has NO paper ballot backup, and Republicans are purging votes
like crazy and plan to cage voters on Election Day, so overconfidence is not warranted. If we don't win the Philly burbs,
Obama won't win PA, so enough already. Back to work. See ya later.

[demokatgurrl]

73. Are you kidding? McCain and Cindy are here all the time!

or at least it seems that way to me.

[Bicoastal]

13. All I know is if it's ONLY confirmed to be from a campaign organizer, it's probably bogus.

When I worked with the campaign, they ALWAYS told us to campaign like we were tied or barely ahead. Among the ground team, nervous rumors spread like wildfire, especially by people who were so busy they barely had time to look up stuff like this and get it accurate. Once they quoted polling from a month ago by accident, until I corrected them.

But why would "Team Obama" correct this rumor? If the McCain campaign thinks they've got a fighting chance in Pennsylvania, let them think that and waste their time.

[ClarkUSA]

23. If you read the story, you'll see Team O didn't deny it.

I thought you said the story was debunked. So you said that to me with no proof but your opinion?
I am a volunteer organizer for Team O in PA right now, and I can tell you that people have been
told to scramble hard for the next two weeks.

[Chan790]

56. Why would they deny it??

Obama has more cash on hand and he's leading in the race...if elections are a war of attrition (and they are) it makes sense to keep McCain running around like a chicken without a head. The more places he has to spend time and money the less of an effect he can make anyplace when he needs to turn things around everyplace.

[ORDem]

68. Yes. Yes it was. Look, people there is only one reason why this PA "concern" is happening.

McCain has blown it in the other swing states. The early voting in those is killing him and he can't possibly recoup Obama's lead in those states with the dwindling pool of voters who haven't yet voted there.

PA does not have early voting, and it has a ton of EVs. This is McCain's only hope at this point to squeak out a win, and it's a damn poor hope. He has like two chances: fat and slim.

McCain's campaign is going to be pulling out all the stops to win in PA and that includes sowing lots of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) around Obama's chances in PA. Hence, the flawed AP poll, and this bogus story of an internal Obama poll showing the race tightening. Watch for lots of phony storm clouds and racist attacks in PA (you lucky folks).

Obama's got a double-digit lead there and plenty more $$$ than McLame to retain that lead. If he loses the lead in PA, it will only because something very momentous or unexpected happens in general in which case he'd lose lots of swing states.

Stop worrying and get to work making sure folks vote!

:dem:

[KansasVoter]

2. This is not a true story! Research it!

[beachmom]

4. Please provide your research. nt

[ClarkUSA]

8. Again, do you have a link? Because this was just referred to on CNN.

Has there been a disclaimer from Team Obama that Joe Klein, David Gergen, Political Wire, and I don't know about?
If there is, I'd like to be able to correct all of the above.

[writes3000]

5. When I was in Nevada, the local people said the SAME thing - to motivate people.

It's bullshit but if it gets people to work harder, what the hell, LOL.

[ClarkUSA]

11. Only according to the Hill story, Team Obama didn't deny it.

They could have if they wanted to... and it does explain Rendell's comments yesterday.

[Cush]

20. why would they want to deny or confirm it?

if they say its true, it helps McCain, if they say No, it will tell McCain that he needs to work harder

[writes3000]

22. There's no upside to denying it. They want people worried enough to work hard.

But the local people are not told their real polling numbers.

When I was in Nevada, they told us "privately" that the campaign believed the entire race would come down to Nevada. And our county was the deciding factor. I knew that the polls showed at that time that there were several viable and encouraging paths for Obama's victory but I nodded.

Why? Because it was clearly just a motivational tactic.

My local field organizer wasn't given actual poll data.

[MadBadger]

6. Obama isnt up 16 points and he isnt up 2 points

The former poll numbers are probably a little high, and the latter are probably to fight complacency among PA Dems.

[beachmom]

10. You're probably right. I have heard there is some complacency

in parts of PA. They need to get to work, and act like it is only a 2 point race.

[GarbagemanLB]

7. Yes. It is only a 2 point spread. It is so close that Obama has decided NOT to return to PA before

November.

Christ, people, look at the ACTIONS of the campaign. If it was that close Obama would be in PA every other day.

[beachmom]

12. OTOH, the Obama campaign does need to get their PA voters

out to vote. And why did the Governor of PA act all nervous?

[GarbagemanLB]

15. To fight overconfidence and to help GOTV? Seriously, people, this isn't difficult to understand.

[writes3000]

24. It is for some. nt

[ClarkUSA]

39. As if you know, eh? You have nothing to back up your "don't worry" scenario.

I, on the other hand, am asking for help in PA. Who's got the right message here?

[writes3000]

59. Asking for help is great. Wonderful, in fact.

But I don't think this one rumor negates the dozen polls that have come out of Nevada.

I love the notion of people helping in PA. But it's not a 2 pt. race there. There is tremendous evidence that contradicts it. I choose not to ignore that evidence. And when I factor that in with your "Hill" report and what I know about the Obama campaign, I come to the same conclusion.

It is not a 2 pt. race in PA.

But good for you, asking people to help there.

[ClarkUSA]

31. How do you know what Obama's schedule is for the next 13 days? It's very fluid.

Obama went through a huge 4 rally day in the Philly area recently and Michelle was in Pittsburgh this week.
Rendell went public with comments saying PA was going to be close and Obama should get back to the
state -- which I'll bet he will before Election Day.

[Teaser]

34. Panic all you want. It is not a 2 point spread.

.

[ClarkUSA]

38. Who's panicking? I just asked people to please come help in PA.

:eyes:

[Teaser]

40. It sure "sounded" like you were "yelling"

in some of those posts. My bad if you weren't.

Things aren't as bad as 2%. But it's not an 11 point lead either.

[ClarkUSA]

44. Huh?

I am merely saying that Team O needs help in PA. And the people here who pretend it's all a ruse don't have anything
to back it up. But it's obvious from the time that has been recently spent in PA by the Obamas, Biden, and the Clintons
that the state is in contention.

[Bicoastal]

46. Clark, the entire team has been in New Hampshire a lot recently too.

The campaign doesn't get lazy--once a swing state always a swing state. MCCAIN is the one abandoning states because he can't win there.

[mr poe]

14. We've heard a lot about so-called "internal polls" lately

What are they? How are they conducted? And why would they be more valid or accurate than a scientific poll from a professional polling organization?

[Sugarcoated]

16. Why would a Obama's leak-proof campaign

all of a sudden in the home strech do this? Their skates are razor sharp. I have a feeling this was intentional, to get McLame spending money here, giving him hope. My gut feeling.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

17. can we win without PA?

[ClarkUSA]

25. Team O needs PA in every "win" scenario.

See http://www.fivethirtyeight.com on the right hand side under "Scenario Analysis"

[writes3000]

28. Yes but we will win PA. This story is BOGUS.

Here's a clue.

Obama is headed to Hawaii but he added a last minute stop just before his trip.

In Pennsylvania? With 21 EVs?

No. In Indiana. With 11 EVs.

Obama's schedule tells you where it's close or getting closer.

Find out when the last time Obama was in PA.

[ErinBerin84]

19. I think it's higher than 2, but lower than some of the double digit polls,,,

that being said, I don't believe this internal poll stuff....journalists aren't immune to rumors too, maybe Gergen is just hearing the same one from the people in Philly. Wouldn't be the first time him or Joe Klein were wrong...that being said, we need to work our asses off to make it happen.

[GrizzlyMan]

21. I'm surprised so many has missed the obvious point here

Even if it is true, and a field organizer said this to a volunteer (as it was originally reported on DU by one of the mods over the weekend who wrote that a field director told him/her this PERSONALLY) it's simply a motivational tool to guard against complacency. On every campaign I've ever worked for volunteers were manipulated this way whether it be if the campaign is behind (but gaining momentum!!!) or ahead (and trying to guard against complacency).

[grytpype]

26. I think Obama is baiting McCain to get him to waste resources in PA

This could be a clever move.

Mccain's only hope now is to win PA.

He hasn't lead in the polls in PA since April!

This "poll" encourages McCain to try harder to win PA.

And maybe as a result we win Indiana, Georgia, the Dakotas.

[wanpete]

45. this is the plan. this is the ultimate chess game. O is baiting McSame to spend time there

knowing that this is the only way he can win. while he wastes time there maybe gaining 2-3 points, he loses NC, GA, IN, VA, etc... This is smart and very tactical, as team O has been since the very beginning.

[fujiyama]

27. If it's two points, he'd be underperforming Kerry there

and I'm kind of doubtful of that myself. Though it's possible he could be under performing in certain parts of the state, I think the western part of the state would be offset by Philly in a more drastic way than 4 years ago. Also, a few other factors - Santorum lost BIG and there has been a huge voter registration drive in the state, increasing the number of registered Dems.

Hell, it won't be a freaking 15 point victory, but I think it will be between 5-8 points. ONE more rally in maybe a college town wouldn't hurt though. He was just in Philly a week or two ago though. I'd have Joe go there a few more times - of course to Scranton among other places. Hillary and Bill would be a big help there as well. But time is running out. I'd say WV is looking to be more and more out of the question and it might be smart to just focus on larger prize states - PA, VA, MO, CO, NV, and FL.

For some reason I'm less optimistic about OH. The demographics are way too much like PA, but without Philly.

[S_E_Fudd]

30. The story that won't die...

This was published a week or so ago. An Obama staffer in PA apparently used it to motivate campaign workers. No confirmation of the number...

If it was really that close don't you think Biden, Hillary, Bill and Obama would still be campaigning there...

Plouffe would be all over it...

[Bicoastal]

36. EXACTLY. Just because "they neither confirmed or denied it" doesn't make it true...

...if you haven't noticed, Team Obama is keeping their cards pretty close to their chest.

[ClarkUSA]

41. The Clintons and Biden were in Scranton this past Saturday, Michelle was in Pittsburgh on Mon.

Obama was there for a 4 rally day in the Philly area very recently. So the proof is there, if Pollyannas would stop long enough
to see it: PA needs volunteers.

[alcibiades_mystery]

47. Biden and the Clintons were in Scranton to pump up Paul Kajorski

Who is in a bitter fight with the dumbfuck mayor of hazelton for a House seat.

Obama has already stated that he won't be back in PA. He did four stops in Philly as a farewell enthusiasm holder.

If you want evidence you can look at the ad buys in PA for the coming week:


PA Ad Buys for the coming week (previous week in parens):

Obama 2,970,000 (3,337,000)
McCain: 1,811,000 (1,780,000)
RNC: 255,000 (425,000)

Obama reducing PA by $370,000
RNC reducing ad buys $170,000

McCain Increasing Ad Buys $31,000

Net weekly change for McCain and the RNC in PA? REDUCTION in ad buys of $140,000. Obama has reduced his own ad buys in PA by $370,000, or 11%. Does that sound like somebody who sees weak internal polls/ only in ClarkUSA's little fantasy world. Does McCain's 1.7% increase in ad buys paired with the RNC's 35% DECREASE in ad buys sound like a legitimate full throttle assault? NOPE.

You're just wrong. It's not that hard.

[Bicoastal]

48. Exactly. So either this low-rung campaign worker knows something Alexrod and Plouffe DON'T...

...or Obama's pretty confident with his chances in PA, and all this other stuff is rumor and conjecture.

[alcibiades_mystery]

51. Oh, it's worse than that...you'd also have to believe that McCain's "full effort" in PA is

a 1.7% increase in ad buys, while the RNC reduces their ad buys there by 35%!

In other words, you'd have to believe that the McCain campaign, seeing vulnerability in an Obama "must win" state, has decided to throw a full $31,000 more dollars at the problem, while the RNC has decided to PULL $170,000 from the state for other priorities.

In other words, you'd have to be a total imbecile to believe it. Or Clark USA. One of the two.

[Bicoastal]

57. HEY, HEY NOW...

I have to respect what Clark is doing--volunteering and working in Pennsylvania. (S)he is very active and probably very tired.

These are the people who get the most misinformation--probably because they are so busy out in the field they don't have time to look everything up on the Internet. This is EXACTLY how it was when I canvassed--month-old polling info would spread like wildfire.

[Bicoastal]

58. Btw, where are YOU getting all this info? You seem better informed than any of us.

[alcibiades_mystery]

62. Here ya go

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7560947&mesg_id=7560947

[Bicoastal]

65. What about the part about Obama not returning to PA? And only being there to support local Dems?

That's even more revealing.

[alcibiades_mystery]

66. You're never there ONLY to support local dems

But the visit to Scranton was pretty clearly a support mission for Kanjorski. Just like they had Biden up in WA saving Gregoire's ass from vicious scumbag Dino Rossi. WA is not in play.

As for Obama not returning to PA, I guess I just heard that through the newsvine.

[writes3000]

60. ClarkUSA doesn't deserve to be insulted. ClarkUSA is rallying troops.

This isn't designed as a concern post but a motivational one.

I strongly disagree with the assessment of what's really going on in PA but ClarkUSA is at least working - not just firing off concern posts or fighting with posters.

Let's give ClarkUSA some credit.

[ClarkUSA]

69. It makes sense to decrease ad buys in PA when the GOP is doing so by a margin of 3-1.

That doesn't mean anything. Only an imbecile would think differently.

[Teaser]

32. Rendell called for more campaigning because

he likes the attention.

I'm not worried.

[Drunken Irishman]

33. If Obama felt his lead was only two, he'd be there day and night.

[alcibiades_mystery]

49. Obhama has REDUCED PA ad buys 11% for the coming week

The RNC has reduced their ad buys for PA by 35%
McCain has increased his ad buys for PA by 1.7%.

Yes, that's ONE POINT SEVEN PERCENT.

Wow! What a massive assault! :rofl:

Combined McCain+RNC change in ad buys for the coming week? Minus $170,000.

Only fools and trolls are spreading this Pennsylvania is vulnerable nonsense. Even Chuck Todd himself states it with a grimace.

[ClarkUSA]

71. It makes sense to decrease by 11% when the GOP is decreasing ad buys by 35%.

That doesn't mean anything. Only an imbecile would think it differently.

[ShadowLiberal]

37. As a PAer I've always been a bit skeptical of an Obama win by 10%+ in PA, but I do think he's ahead

Personally I think a win of 10% or more isn't possible in PA unless we win the national popular vote by like 10% or more (or close to 10%). I'm also really skeptical of the 15% leads he's had in some PA polls.

But I definitely agree that Obama is ahead here, and is favored to win PA.

One interesting thing to note though, all the political insiders in our state seem to believe Obama's lead is only half of what the polls are showing now (some claim it's even less then that, but they all agree that Obama is in the lead right now).

Republican insiders believe the only way McCain can win PA is by cutting down Obama's margin of victory in big cities like Philadelphia (they believe that unless they can cut down an Obama win in Philadelphia to 300,000 votes that they can't win, Kerry won by 400,000 votes in Philadelphia), and they believe that McCain is more appealing to people who live there then Bush was.

Already republicans are trying to discourage turnout in Philadelphia by spreading false rumors that cops will be standing by the voting booths to arrest anyone with an arrest warrant out for them. It's not true at all, but it's hard to fight rumors like that.

[BlooInBloo]

42. BWAHAHAAH!!!!!

[ruggerson]

50. Why is everyone discounting this info?

Granted, the OP can be offensive and nasty at times, but he/she is asking for help in an important swing state.

If Obama is ahead there by ten points, extra volunteers will do no harm.

If Obama is ahead there by only two points, extra volunteers are crucial.

The important thing is to get the man elected, not argue with someone who is asking for help or endlessly pick apart whether the story about one internal poll is true or not.

If I was anywhere near PA and wasn't tied by iron chains to work, I'd be there.

[Drunken Irishman]

54. There is a difference between asking for more volunteers and making it seem like he's losing PA.

It does no one any good. Obama isn't up by just two points there. If he were, he wouldn't be reducing his ad buy and he'd be there campaigning his butt off.

No need to spread false info that just gets everyone panicked.

[FVZA_Colonel]

67. "Reducing his ad buy?"

I'm not sure why he'd do that, but they must know something we don't. They wouldn't do this if they really thought the was a danger of McCain making a comeback.

[ClarkUSA]

70. You're making shit up now -- when did I make it seem "like he's losing PA"?

Get a grip... all I did was quote reputable sources and ask for GOTV help in PA. You're a sorry f*ck if you think that's out of line.
I'm not panicked -- but you seem to overreact with regularity.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

53. Maybe someone will shut Murtha up now.

[progressivebydesign]

55. Why is this being put here again? It was an over-eager staffer trying to fire people up.

We are a gullible bunch, aren't we? This has been debunked.. and just because someone said "CNN mentioned it!" doesn't make it so.

[anonymous171]

61. lol It's a trap. They're trying to get McCain to go all in and try to win PA

Obama will focus on all the other swing states now.

[yodoobo]

63. 2% ahead might as well be 49% ahead. 2% is -winning-

We only one more vote than McCain to win and 2% represents hundreds of thousands of votes.

Its over and McCain knows it.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

64. Why is so many people trying to disbelieve something they heard on the internet?

Do you believe just as quick something that you didn't hear on the internet? If so, where did you hear it? Yes or no, don't wait for the translation. Somebody wrote about it and got a email, what do you want? They said it was allegedly last week. If I said your sister was the one that heard it, would that make any difference? Wild guess: Maybe.

[baabaasheeple]

74. I think being conservative is a lot better in this case

Please don't get lulled into anything, people! Tell everyone you know to VOTE!

[baabaasheeple]

75. I think being conservative is a lot better in this case

Please don't get lulled into anything, people! Tell everyone you know to VOTE!

[bushisanidiot]

76. They know and the entire U.S. knows that Barack is up by double digits in PA.

but I think Barack's team is campaigning like they are only 2 pts. behind just to play it safe to make sure PA is won.

there's no way in hell all the polls are showing double digit leads and he's only 2 points up.