My prediction: Obama 289, McCain 249

[oviedodem]

THis is without:

OH, VA, NC, FL

However, this means that Obama MUST MUST MUST win PA or we lose a squeaker. About a week ago Rik Davis said he is looking for a narrow victory. PA is the linchpin in that scenario assuming you give Obama NV, CO, NM, MO.

I would heed Rendell's take that they come back to PA because that state worries me to no end. I am convinced that he won't win FL or OH, I don't care what the polls say about those two states. The dynamics of the right wing and race are going to make it difficult. The unfortunate thing is that PA has at the very least the race dynamic which is a problem

Play with the map here MSNBC Map

Unless at 7PM on 11/5 you hear that VA is in Obama's camp, prepare for a hand wringing night. That is of course OH or NC shock the world.

[elkston]

1. Losing NC, OH, or FL is plausible. But I think VA is sealed up now. (n/t)

[scheming daemons]

2. I think we get VA. Very good chance there.

[kennetha]

4. good chance, but not certain on VA

mason-dixon poll has it at a 2 pt race right now.

Huge racist contingent there. It will depend on how heavily Nothern Va goes for Obama.

[tedoll78]

3. My prediction..

(the dog helped me :P)

I don't trust Florida or Ohio one bit. But we're leading in CO, VA, & NV.. and we're killing in early voting in NC, so it's the one state I went out on a limb to bump into the blue column.

[OmahaBlueDog]

6. I think Ariana Huffington predicts that exact outcome as well

Even if we lose NC in that scenario, we still win.

I do think we'll pick up OH or FL, but not both. The prospect is now also forming that we'll pick up IN.

[OmahaBlueDog]

I posted this a couple of days ago as the worst case I see

Using Yahoo (sorry, I couldn't send a link to the graphic) I've taken off pretty much every state I think McSame has any realistic chance of grabbing:

Obama: DC, MD, DE, NJ, CT, RI, MA, ME, NH, VT, NY, PA, IL, MI, MN, WI, IA, CO, NM, CA, WA, OR, HI

I ran the numbers, and even gave McSame VA (unlikely at this point, but for the sake of discussion), NC, FL, NV, OH, MO, and the usual remaining gang of red states.


and I come up with 273-O 265-M.

If Obama were to lose PA, OH, and FL, he would have to pick up 2 of NC, VA, or MO (and not lose any other states we presume he wins)

[Dukkha]

5. All the Metrics Point to an Obama Win

http://www.electoral-vote.com

Back in 2007, when practically every pundit saw Rudy Giuliani as the inevitable Republican nominee, political guru Charlie Cook said he (Cook) was more likely to win the Tour de France than the Republicans were to nominate a thrice-married, gay-friendly, Catholic New Yorker. Cook didn't win the Tour de France and Giuliani didn't win the nomination, so Cook gets a certain amount of credit. Now he says there are six factors pointing to an Obama win in two weeks:

No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.
Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.
Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.

Obama will win with 364 Electoral votes and have something Bush NEVER once had, a mandate.

[I LIKE IKE 61]

8. My prediction.

I see Obama winning between 325 and 350 EVs it will not be razor this but we will certainly lose a key state or two. That allways happens. Either Ohio or Florida will go Obama. I just cannot see him losing both. North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, and Indiana will be the close ones to watch. Most states are either going to be Red or Blue. Not many clase states. Only a handful.

[TheWraith]

7. I think you're being far too pessimistic.

First off, Virginia is pretty much a lock for us at this point. And I think we have very good odds on taking all three of the others you mention.

[thewiseguy]

9. The guy who is from Florida is convinced that Obama wont win that state

Even though he is leading McCain in most Florida polls. :shrug:

[I LIKE IKE 61]

10. Yep.

Sounds kind of odd about the guy from Florida. Its going to be close but comfortable in Florida. Economy will be big factor for voters even in the sunshine state. Obama stands a better chance in Florida than Ohio IMO.

[Stagecoach]

11. I'd be very surprised

If Obama ends up with fewer than 300 electoral votes. McCain would have to flip quite a few states that Obama is ahead in, in order to get Obama under 300.

[Ioo]

12. I think you have sliced this to make PA needed... it is not...

If we win VA over PA we are fine... there is SO MANY ways this can be sliced it is hard to say