"All the Metrics Point to an Obama Win"

[ailsagirl]

All the Metrics Point to an Obama Win

Back in 2007, when practically every pundit saw Rudy Giuliani as the inevitable Republican nominee, political guru Charlie Cook said he (Cook) was more likely to win the Tour de France than the Republicans were to nominate a thrice-married, gay-friendly, Catholic New Yorker. Cook didn't win the Tour de France and Giuliani didn't win the nomination, so Cook gets a certain amount of credit. Now he says there are six factors pointing to an Obama win in two weeks:

No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.
Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.
Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[LynneSin]

1. If everyone who could legally vote and actually voted would be fairly counted...

it would be a fucking landslide.

At this point I'm assuming the race will be close.

[ailsagirl]

3. Yes-- that's the ultimate concern.

I'm still not letting myself get too excited-- how well I remember 2004 and how devastating that was. This would be a thousand times worse. But I'm keeping a good thought and these kinds of articles bolster my spirits!! GOBAMA!!!!

:kick:

[alison]

2. The metrics may point to it, but it doesn't factor in Republican sabotaging.

After the last two elections were essentially stolen from us, I say "it ain't over 'till it's over"

[ailsagirl]

4. Yep-- I'm on pins and needles...

But I'm hoping that the vote will be so overwhelming for Barack that even the repugs' tricks won't put a real dent in the final outcome.