According to USA TODAY WE ARE BEHIND IN FLA IN EARLY+ABSENTEE VOTE - GO VOTE NOW!

[ddeclue]

First the good news: USA today says we lead in EARLY voting 2 to 1 in FL for 100,000 vs 50,000 votes.

Now the BAD news: We are trailing in absentees right now 3 to 2 in FL for 378,000 vs 252,000 votes.

Cumulatively that puts us behind: 428,000 to 352,000 or some 76,000 votes in the hole.

I need you, Obama needs you to GO VOTE TODAY! and get as many of your Democratic friends, family and neighbors as you can to join you!

Thanks,
Doug D.
Dem Activist
Orlando, FL/Ft. Lauderdale, FL


PLEASE go vote ASAP if you live in Florida!

It is URGENT that you EARLY VOTE or ABSENTEE VOTE ASAP.

WHEN YOU GO TO VOTE:

1) Check with your supervisor of elections website or by phone to find out WHERE and WHEN you can EARLY VOTE. (If you FAIL to EARLY VOTE, then be sure to check as to your polling place, many have changed since you last voted.)

2) Vote the ENTIRE BALLOT and Vote DEMOCRAT.

Check with knowledgeable Democrats in your area about the so-called "non partisan" races because even though they are officially called this, the truth is that almost every person running for a non-partisan office is registered as a Democrat or a Republican and do you really want a Republican on your school board or water board or city council? Think about it.

On the ballot referendums, again ask a knowledgeable Democrat. When in doubt vote NO. Most of these amendments are bad for Democrats anyways. I am recommending NO on everything but 1, 3, and 8.

WHY EARLY VOTE or ABSENTEE VOTE RIGHT NOW?

There are several very good reasons:

1) Florida's new Voter ID Match law may cause your ballot to be rejected so we need to find that out as early as possible. The Obama campaign and the Florida Democratic Party have hundreds of volunteer attorneys on stand by around the state to help make sure that your vote will count but they need TIME to fix these problems so PLEASE don't wait until the last possible moment and expect them to be able to help you.

Vote NOW so we can find out and CHECK to make sure your vote is going to count with the Supervisor of Elections if you vote absentee. If for any reason your vote is rejected contact the local Obama for President office or the county Democratic Executive Committee office or the Florida Democratic Party in Tallahassee. If you can't find the number dial the area code + 555-1212 and ask information for the number.

2) It will help us reduce the work load in the campaign offices on election day. The more voters we can get out of the way before election day the less problems we will have turning out the vote ON election day. We need to "bank" your vote BEFORE Nov 4th and go into Nov 4th with a huge lead so that the Republicans can't catch up and so that there won't be any doubt about the results at the end of the day.

3) It will demoralize Republicans if we beat them in EV and ABV before election day. They keep track of this stuff too and if we beat them at their own game, they will know it is over before Nov 4th actually starts.

4) Waiting until the last moment is taking a big risk with your vote. Besides the Florida ID law, consider what happens if:

a) There are long lines at the polls. Predictions are for a 90%+ turnout this year in FL. If you vote now you avoid the rush and make the lines shorter for other Dem voters on election day. Remember also that the Voter ID law may slow down voting in FL and also make lines longer.

b) The weather is bad. The 2006 General and Primary elections in Florida were plagued by rain which drove down turnout. Vote TODAY, the weather is supposed to be fine across the state. Don't wait until the last minute and have your excuse be: I didn't want to stand in the rain.

c) You have an accident, illness, personal, or family emergency that prevents you from voting. Don't let a simple thing like having a flat tire on election day at 530PM make John McCain the next President of the United States.

d) If you EARLY VOTE or ABSENTEE VOTE then YOU will be available to help us by VOLUNTEERING on election day (and the days before too!).

Time to apply the "Powell Doctrine" in Florida folks - we have a clear objective: Elect Obama to the Presidency - and we need to meet the Republicans with the "overwhelming force" of OUR volunteer army of Obama supporters.

We need people to knock and drag on election day, give rides to polls, phone bank, hang door hangars, man polling places, put out signs, answer incoming calls, make copies, and a million other things so time to step up and help fill out our cadre of dedicated experienced staff and volunteers.

Call up information and ask for the campaign number and then call and ask how you can join the team!

Thanks and GO VOTE!


Douglas J. De Clue
Democratic Activist
Orlando, FL / Fort Lauderdale, FL
407 473-1202 (Orlando Cell#)
954-401-4897 (Fort Lauderdale Cell#)
[e-mail]

SPREAD THE WORD AND EMAIL THIS TO EVERYONE IN YOUR DISTRIBUTION LISTS AND TELL THEM TO DO THE SAME!

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. THESE ARE NOT VOTE NUMBERS

Just to be clear. These are registrations.

[ddeclue]

3. I understand that BUT...

the general rule of thumb is that people vote like their party registration, cross over voting is the EXCEPTION, not the rule and more or less cross over voting tends to largely cancel itself out as R's cross to D and D's cross to R, the NET crossover is what counts which is much smaller than you think, although this year the crossover will break Democratic.

The general rule of thumb is that NPA's (indies) tend to be a wash also because they tend to split more or less evenly (although this year they will break by 5 to 10 points for Obama in FL). Again the NET is what counts. Indies tend to be less likely to vote than R's and D's and substantially less likely to vote early or absentee.

This has been my experience running GOTV and ABV programs in the last 4 years so I tend to focus on the simpler model which says count the R's and count the D's to get an idea of how your campaign is doing relative to the Republican campaign in the early/absentee period.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[bleuvixen]

2. Oh how I hope #2 is shot down :(

:(

I voted

1-No
2-No
3-Yes
4-Yes
6-No
8-No

I thought #4 means there will be tax exemptions if you are using the land for conservation methods?

[ddeclue]

6. Yeah but the language seems weaselly like a way for

developers to cut their taxes on land until they sell it. I don't trust it.

Doug D.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

4. There's no way they could know the absentee numbers.

Shenanigans.

[ddeclue]

5. Actually the county SOE's release this number nightly in Florida

and you can get reports of WHO has requested an absentee, WHO has had one delivered to them and who has returned their ballot. You can also see who has early voted on the same reports. This information is HOW you target absentee voters to get them to return their ballot and it also allows you to know who has already voted on election day for GOTV.

Doug D.

[matchstick]

7. everybody needs to react like we are behind when it come to vote

[Lochloosa]

17. Welcome to DU matchstick

:toast:

[five_horizons]

8. I'm voting on Friday

[Lochloosa]

18. Welcome to DU five_horizons

:toast:

[five_horizons]

37. Thanks!

:hi: In just a few weeks I've become completely addicted to this site!

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Absentees ballots generally lean Republican, no?

[RoyGBiv]

11. Yes. n/t

[Mojorabbit]

38. I have mine sitting here

but I am too sick with the flu to fill it out.

[Median Democrat]

10. Margin of Error - Florida Will Depend On Volunteers and Turnout

Help get Democratic voters to the polls. Report and respond to reports of voter suppression. Take advantage of early voting.

[brooklynite]

12. I'm not sure this is significant...

If absentee voting was the ONLY non-Election Day channel I might be worried. It's possible our supporters are choosing to go to the Early Voting Centers instead.

[ddeclue]

13. You aren't reading it carefully.

I am looking at it from an aggregate (EV+ABV) point of view and WE ARE BEHIND in the AGGREGATE - that's what matters and it's why I'm trying to get FL Dems to kick it up a notch.

Thanks,
Doug D.

[Teaser]

14. one more good day of early voting and we won't be

.

[ddeclue]

16. Nope... don't think like that...

I'm not interested in any "ties"...We need to kick their ass EVERY SINGLE DAY from now through 7PM on November 4th. Run up the score every single day! As in the 1970 movie Patton, we don't need to "hold our ground" here we need to be taking ground from Republicans EVERY SINGLE DAY!



http://74.53.81.178/~eiden/mp3clips/audioclippatton1.mp3">Patton Speech by George C. Scott

"Now there's another thing I want you to remember. I don't want to get any messages saying that we are holding our position. We're not holding anything. Let the Hun do that. We are advancing constantly and we're not interested in holding onto anything -- except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose, and we're gonna kick him in the ass. We're gonna kick the hell out of him all the time, and we're gonna go through him like crap through a goose!" - from the movie Patton



"Alright now you sons-of-bitches, you know how I feel.

Oh, I will be proud

to lead you wonderful guys

into battle anytime,

anywhere.


That's all." - end of the speech..

and end of this post too..


Thanks and Dismissed!

:)

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[Uzybone]

15. K&R

[gaspee]

19. Disappointing news

I talked to my sister who lives in Jacksonville and my 22 year old nephew voted for McCain and my sister (who has always leaned Democratic) is writing in Clinton. Her husband, a Muslim born in Syria who emigrated as an adult, is voting for Obama. When I asked my sister why she wasn't voting for Obama, she came right out and said it was because he's African American.

My sister, born and raised in RI, has never been a racist. My nephew who split his childhood between RI and FL also said it's because Obama is African American. They both say living in Jacksonville made them racists.

I am so disappointed in them. I can't even put into words just how disappointed in them I am.

[Hamlette]

20. Rumor debunked at fivethirtyeight.com

its requests for absentee ballots, not returned absentee ballots.

big difference

see article about how bunk this story is at Nate's.

[ddeclue]

21. As someone who has directed the absentee ballot chase program

in Orange County FL for John Kerry campaign in 2004 I have some bad news for you:

Requested ABV's get returned at higher than a 90% margin by the Republicans on a regular basis. We pushed our turn-in rate up to 97% in 2004 by heavy local effort and a lot of out of state phone banking.

Ultimately REQUESTED=RETURNED which is WHY GOTV people LOVE to get voters to sign up for ABV's in the first place. So if you want to be prudent just consider all those R ABV's as ALREADY VOTED because THEY WILL BE by election day.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[yourguide]

22. And if you'd like to be prudent

please state your opinion as opinion and facts as fact.


what happens if those rethug ballots dont get returned? republicans are either angry or apathetic about their own party these days. all but the base.

[ddeclue]

23. My opinion IS fact here...

I've done this numerous times and I do targeting for candidates in Central FL on a regular basis, I'm not just spouting - I know what I'm talking about.

My software for ABV chase in Orange County and my efforts at putting those lists into hands of local volunteers and remote phone bankers on a timely nightly basis were worth a 20 point bump in ABV return % over the 2000 cycle where I was not involved. This amounted to 20% of roughly 32,000 voters or about 6400 extra votes - ten times our margin of victory in Orange County, FL in 2004. FYI: Orange was the only county to go Blue in the entire Orlando Metro and almost all of the I-4 corridor.

Finally PRUDENCE is NOT "hoping for the best" as you are suggesting, hoping that Republicans DON'T vote and hoping that they sit home. PRUDENCE is NOT hoping for the best, it is PLANNING for the WORST.

Doug De Clue
Orlando, FL

[Jackinbox]

24. Question

So right now it looks worse than 04? Not a good sign. I'm calling everyone I know in FL and make sure they get out and EV.

[ddeclue]

27. No, I did NOT say that...We were down on day one

that does NOT mean we will end up down though if we can get people to go out and vote NOW.

2008 is actually better in terms of public opinion polls and people's dissatisfaction with the economy and Bush which will carry over to McCain - in fact McCain is running his own ad saying "the last 8 years didn't turn out so well"...but this is just reminding voters that he is a Republican in my mind.

We also have a much better campaign machine in place in Florida in 08 than in 04

PLUS we have some "air cover" for our ground game this time thanks to Obama being flush with cash and McCain being broke. Obama's ads are 4 to 1 coverage wise against McCain.

Also in Central Florida, Alan Grayson who is running for Congress has spent over a million dollars of his own cash and put together a top-flight team of local grassroots campaigners as his consultants and has turned the 8th District around from -3 registration to +1 registration for Dems, built a 7 point lead in the polls and has had a huge ground game doing reg and ABV requests for months. Expect to see a blow out there that will actually provide REVERSE coat-tails that will benefit Obama.

Ultimately it is early and we can and will win this but I am urging as many Dem people to EV as soon as possible so that we can "bank" those votes PRIOR to the 4th so that we will have a lower work load, be able to reach further into the community on election day, be able to fix any voter disenfranchisement issues and be able have a good lead going into election day.

Thanks,

Doug D.

[Jackinbox]

31. Thanks for the info.

It all makes sense now! Do we have any county breakdowns yet that can give us some indication? It would be interesting to see how the ABV + EVB fare is in Republican strongholds like Seminole and Polk counties. Obviously, McCain is still going to carry those 2 counties but I hope we can gain a few points in each of those this year.

Your info is priceless here. It's great to have someone here that knows the real story! Thanks again!

[yourguide]

26. Dear Doug

someone else has provided different FACTS as to what has been turned in.

The facts are you are suggesting we are behind based on something that hasnt happened yet. You are assuming those ballots will be turned in. They havent been yet. 2004s voter model will not work in 2008.

You again are providing your OPINION, which is not fact.

[ddeclue]

28. You REALLY don't know what you're talking about

and are giving people BAD advice.

Republicans return their ABV's at 90%+ so YES it only makes sense to go ahead and count requests as voted unless you want a nasty and unnecessary surprise on election day.

Your guy doesn't have a clue what he's doing apparently.

Stop lecturing me - you clearly haven't done ABV chase or GOTV and don't know anything about it.

Doug D.

[yourguide]

30. I'm not giving anyone any advice.

I am asking you to make sure you are clear in stating "In past elections we have seen XYZ" instead of screaming "OMFGZZZZZZZZZZZ WE R BEHINDS GET TO THE POLL B4z WE KEEP LOSING!!!"

And with all due respect, I have done GOTV so before spouting off your statistics, screaming what hasnt happened yet is fact, provide a fair and honest assessment of what to expect versus screaming all chicken little style that this is happening now.

I know one thing the 2004 models are not the same as the 2008 models. So knock it off. Go and visit a real statistician over at fivethirtyeight and learn how it's done.

[Usrename]

33. Why are you being a jerk?

The OP never said what you are claiming. His facts are facts. He never said what you claim he said.

Now the BAD news: We are trailing in absentees right now 3 to 2 in FL for 378,000 vs 252,000 votes.

That's nothing like what you are trying to read into it. If the data is correct, they ARE ahead of us right now. Buck up.

[yourguide]

35. The data the OP provided

claimed we are behind in absentee votes. The numbers the OP provided are the number of requested ballots (R/D) not including the number of absentee ballots that are independent and not the number of ballots turned in.

This claim was debunked at fivethirtyeight.com. We don't need a bunch of chicken little's here spouting off erroneous facts.

The whole point is his data is incorrect, or the way he worded it is incorrect. either way it's not the number of ballots turned in.

[Usrename]

36. Chicken littles? Where are you getting this from?

Why don't you just post the link to fivethirtyeight.com where this information has been debunked, and lay off the OP.

His source is about as reputable as you can expect these days.

:shrug:

[ddeclue]

39. I KNOW how its done because I've actually done it successfully FROM WITHIN CAMPAIGNS..

You don't pretend like something isn't going to happen when you know it will.

That's called "denial" and you are neck deep in it.

Your advice is like a pilot flying 2,500 feet above sea level over 500 foot MSL terrain saying:

Everything's great, I'm 2,000 feet above ground level while refusing to look at the 6,000 foot ridgeline he is approaching. Sooner or later you're going to fly right into the side of Absentee Ballot mountain by hoping it isn't there. Given that the absentee ballots are always returned at better than 90% only a fool would try to pretend like they shouldn't be counted into the totals.

Doug D.

[budkin]

25. But this poll says we're up 24% in FLA! LMAO!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7560788&mesg_id=7560788

[ddeclue]

29. Statewide we're realistically up by 4 to 5% NOT 24%

If you really believe 24% I've got a bridge over in Tampa I'd like to sell you.

Doug D.

[Coexist]

32. I (and lots of Dems) did today in Pasco!

[demo dutch]

34. I'm sorting out all the amendments, & then I'll vote in the next week or so BTW lines in Broward &

Palm Bch are huge! Big Dem areas!