The Daily Widget, Wed 10/22 – O-378, M-160 – Indiana Blue; Obama Leads By 8 Million Votes

[phrigndumass]

1. ANALYSIS

Eighteen state polls were released yesterday: 8 for swing states, 3 for blue states and 7 for red states. And yet Barack Obama’s lead grows, even when the mix of states being polled leans to the right. Obama isn’t done winning over voters in red states.

Take Indiana, for instance. Most polls this year conducted in Indiana have shown a McCain lead, sometimes a strong lead. Only four polls all year had shown Obama leading, two of which were conducted by the highest rated pollster: J. Ann Selzer. But everyone still has their doubts that Obama could be able to pull off a win in Indiana. A new poll, however, now shows Obama leading by 2 points over John McCain in Indiana. Where there’s a will, there’s a way, especially since the number of total registered voters this year in Indiana is 38% higher than in 2004. Indiana moves into the Lean Obama column today.

That leaves the Lean McCain column completely empty today. The Red Sea has parted. Maybe we can fill that with Arkansas, if we can coax a pollster to conduct a poll there. Keep in mind that an empty column is a vacuum and could just as easily be filled with a Lean Obama state as well. (Fingers crossed)

But I wonder if that’s possible, as Obama now leads by 8 million votes over McCain in the popular vote total from state polls (see Figure 4a below), and the periodic national polls released yesterday continue to explode for Obama. CBS is showing Obama leading by 13 points nationwide, while NBC is showing a 10 point lead and ABC is showing a 9 point lead (see Figure 4c below). Even the daily trackers picked up some ground on average.

With 13 days remaining until the election, things are looking good for us!



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Colorado Obama 51, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 10/20, +/- 4.0, 576 LV)
Florida Obama 48, McCain 47 (Public Policy Polling, 10/19, +/- 2.9, 1158 LV)
Illinois Obama 56, McCain 32, B0, N2 (Chicago Tribune, 10/18, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Indiana Obama 48, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 10/19, +/- 2.6, 1411 LV)
Kentucky Obama 41, McCain 54 (Survey USA, 10/20, +/- 4.3, 535 LV)
Nevada Obama 47, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 10/19, +/- 3.6, 690 LV)
New Jersey Obama 55, McCain 38 (Monmouth University, 10/18, +/- 3.7, 723 LV)
New Jersey Obama 59, McCain 36 (Quinnipiac University, 10/19, +/- 2.9, 1184 LV)
North Carolina Obama 49, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 10/19, +/- 3.6, 698 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 47 (Survey USA, 10/20, +/- 4.0, 627 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 45 (Civitas, 10/20, +/- 4.2, 600 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 35, McCain 59 (Survey USA, 10/19, +/- 4.2, 561 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 32.4, McCain 63.7 (TvPoll.com, 10/20, +/- 3.5, 763 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 42 (Morning Call, 10/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
South Carolina Obama 43, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/20, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
West Virginia Obama 43, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 10/20, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Wyoming Obama 32, McCain 58 (Mason-Dixon, 10/14, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Wyoming Obama 37, McCain 58 (Survey USA, 10/19, +/- 4.0, 604 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


.

[mucifer]

1. Thanks Phrig! and good morning!

I'm still a bit freaked out by the vote switching by the machines. But, the polling looks great!

[phrigndumass]

3. Let's hope it was mostly voter error :)

Agreed about the polls, especially the national polls. I'm pinching myself!

:donut: Good morning, mucifer! :hi:

[tekisui]

2. When I read the 38% new voters in IN,

my jaw hit the floor. With new voters going 2-1, and 3-1 in some places, for Obama, he very likely can win it there.

Voting is taking place around the country, now, so these are the polls that really matter. Amazing what is happening, just amazing. I am buying my champagne for the Obama Election Party today!

Woo-Hoo!!! Thanks, phrign!:party: :bounce: :bounce: :hi:

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

6. Indiana will need some voters to switch to make it happen

And apparently some have. There should be about 900,000 more votes in Indiana this year, and if Obama wins 75% of them (+450,000), that alone wouldn't be enough to put him over the top, considering Bush won Indiana in 2004 by 21 points. But McCain has never led by 21 points this year, so we should be able to pull it off :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[tekisui]

10. I knew you could help me with the numbers.

I was out working yesterday, and calculating in my head, that Obama would need more than just the registered Dems in IN, to join the new voters.

I am working on my mom and stepdad, in IN. I have to move slowly with them.:-)

[phrigndumass]

12. Ha! I dug deep, just for you :)

Do your parents watch Letterman? :D

[tekisui]

17. No, but they are in town this week, and I just might have some things for

them. I have a week left on the soft sell, then the hard sell. I think I have my mom, she just won't admit it.;-)

[phrigndumass]

19. Best of luck with them! :) nt

[Youphemism]

4. Wow. Nice way to start off the day again...

Here's an observation even the statistically challenged among us can make pretty easily...

With nothing but strong Obama states (+10 points or more), he's got 260 electoral votes.

Forgetting everything else, if he just takes Virginia, where he's ahead by 8 points, that gets him across the line at 273 electoral votes.

Even high estimates of the "Bradley Effect" don't usually make it up to 8 points.

Still almost two weeks to go, of course. We're not at the point where Obama can only lose if he's "caught with a live boy or a dead hooker." But we can see that point from our house.

Thanks again for all the great work!

[Youphemism]

7. Oh, one more thing we haven't heard much yet...

After the election is over, the margin of victory will be quoted a lot. "President Obama and his democrat-heavy congress can't afford to assume they can just walk over the republicans..."

We will all get sick of the word "mandate" before it's over. But if Obama wins in a landslide, he will be crowned by the voters (via the press) with a "mandate for change." That will mean that the republicans in Congress are standing on the railroad tracks. It will make an incredible difference in how easy it is to get things done on the hill.

He was right not to give away his donations to congressional races. Aside from losing, the margin of victory could change things quite a bit for him.

[phrigndumass]

11. Obama has provided something better than money to congressional races ...

very long coattails. That alone has lifted up most Democratic candidates' numbers by five points or more. He has also shown by example how to defeat republican opponents.

It is surely a mandate :D

[Youphemism]

8. Double post. Ignore. /nt

[phrigndumass]

9. Good observations! :)

(lol ... "we can see that point from our house" reminds me of Palin)

:donut: Good morning, Youph! :hi:

[Youphemism]

13. Oh, sure... Make my vague allusions easy for everybody to catch. :) /nt

[phrigndumass]

16. lol ... That's why I put it in parentheses :)

Harder to catch that way, lol

[Youphemism]

20. Ohhh, that's why the parentheses. Coming from a math whiz, I just read them as "the quantity".

[Blondiegrrl]

5. Woohoo! Looks like blue is contagious!

Hehehe ... thanks for the update!

[phrigndumass]

14. And it is spreading, lol

:donut: Good morning, Blondiegrrl! :hi:

[terrya]

15. Excellent as always.

I check electoral-vote.com every day. And the thing that strikes me is these EV's are holding pretty steady. 366 - 364.

They look VERY good. And Indiana will be one of the first states to announce its results. If Indiana goes for Obama, it will be a BIG night for us. :-)

:hi: :donut:

[phrigndumass]

18. Thanks, terrya :)

I wonder if Indiana will keep their polls open longer if the lines are too long to handle ... They will be experiencing a huge number of voters this year. I wouldn't mind waiting to hear Indiana's results as long as we win! :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Demeter]

21. Good Morning P-Man!

We had a hard frost in the night, the winter is closing in! My car is ready, even if I'm not. You should have seen me dragging in the plants, trying to stack them somewhere that wouldn't get wet and the cats wouldn't attack...

Daily Widget is better than coffee, it gives me a reason to get up in the morning.

[phrigndumass]

23. Got a cat tip for ya :)

(works for us, anyway)

If you want to cat-proof the plants, cut up some fresh garlic and sprinkle it over the top of the soil. It might smell for a day or two, but cats usually won't mess with them :D

I'm usually eager to get out of bed myself, lol

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Demeter]

25. Then You Aren't Aching Like I Am

I need an all-day nap....and there's no time!

[phrigndumass]

26. No rest for the wicked libruls, lol

until November 5th, anyway, after we're done celebrating :D

[gademocrat7]

22. Good Morning, Mr. P.

Daily Widget looking better and better. Thank you.

[phrigndumass]

24. Thanks gd7 :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[a kennedy]

27. Thank you P.....and right on time.....

first thread I look for. :hug: You da man..... GPG!!

[phrigndumass]

28. yw, ak :)

:hug: :hi: Good morning!

[Kukesa]

29. Good morning and thanks for my daily phrig fix. n/t

[phrigndumass]

31. Good morning to you, Kukesa! :)

:hi:

[Kukesa]

30. Self delete; double post. n/t

[workinclasszero]

32. Can we get a Obama/Biden/democratic landslide??

Yes we can! GOBAMA!!

[phrigndumass]

42. :)

[Dr. Death]

33. Good morning, and thanks for the widget!

Just cast my vote to turn North Carolina blue, and after that I needed my widget fix.

Things are looking good for us, and the clock is running out on McCain.

[phrigndumass]

43. yw, Dr. D :)

I wonder if McCain is still taking weekends off, lol ... there could be less time left on that clock for him than we think!

:hi:

[grantcart]

34. Can you add this link for early voting results

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Interesting that close to 500,000 GA Democrats have voted early.


I wonder if the Obama campaign will start to do a little more in GA to see if they can't get it a little closer.

[phrigndumass]

44. I'll start posting that link at the bottom of every widget post :)

Good idea!

Obama has enough money to do more in Georgia as well :)

[JeffR]

35. Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes

we can.

K & R!

[FUCK_BUSH]

36. Great News, but 2 weeks to go and a Lot can happen.LET'S KEEP FIGHTING HARD.

[phrigndumass]

45. Welcome to DU, Fuck! :)

(I got a giggle when I typed that, lol)

:hi:

[myrna minx]

37. Good morning dear.

These numbers look wonderful. Dare I feel confident? :loveya:

[phrigndumass]

46. I feel confident, so why don't you join me :)

We can wreak of confidence together :loveya: :hi:

[Demeter]

47. I Think You Reek of Confidence (as in Smell Strongly)

Dictionary.com Unabridged
reek

–noun

1. a strong, unpleasant smell.
2. vapor or steam.

–verb (used without object)
3. to smell strongly and unpleasantly.
4. to be strongly pervaded with something unpleasant or offensive.
5. to give off steam, smoke, etc.
6. to be wet with sweat, blood, etc.

–verb (used with object)

7. to give off; emit; exude.
8. to expose to or treat with smoke.



wreak


–verb (used with object)
1. to inflict or execute (punishment, vengeance, etc.): They wreaked havoc on the enemy.
2. to carry out the promptings of (one's rage, ill humor, will, desire, etc.), as on a victim or object: He wreaked his anger on the office staff.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[phrigndumass]

48. LOL ... oops :)

(I have the giggles) I want to inflict my confidence upon you as punishment! :rofl:

Maybe "wreak" will work if I spin it real hard :crazy:

:hi:

[Demeter]

49. Actually, I Expect that Democratic Confidence Will Wreak Revenge on the GOP

for decades to come.

I had another election training class today--the city clerk's office is expecting active challenging of voters, our procedures, continuity of custody of the ballots, everything. They are on the verge of hysteria, IMO.

This is the People's Republic of Ann Arbor. They'd have to import people to challenge here. We have a hard time coming up with enough Republicans to provide the two-party balance of the poll workers.

I'm not looking forward to this election, working the polls. It's going to be exhausting. My only bright spot may be seeing this voter I have had an eye on since the August primary....

Our January Presidential primary was ruled illegal this summer--because somebody insisted we had to have two different ballots (the two parties used to be all on one ballot before), which meant we had to ask the voter which ballot to give them, and mark it in the poll book.

Not because of the too-early date, not because of the missing candidates, but because of the invasion of privacy!

[OmahaBlueDog]

38. Todays question

First -- another fine piece of work!

What is your answer/speculation on the following question/concern:

Many on the other side of the political equation assert that Obama's poll numbers are inflated due to an incorrect weighting based on party affiliation. This line of reasoning is based on the supposition that many new Democratic registrations were, in fact, Republicans and Independents who crossed lines to vote against Hillary Clinton. If one bought into this line of reasoning, it might explain why John McCain continues to campaign in Pennsylvania, for example. Could this be a factor, and (if so) what would you estimate its impact to be?

[phrigndumass]

40. Good question!

It appears they believe Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos is still active in certain parts of the country, well past the primaries. Rush's goal for Operation Chaos was to encourage republican voters to vote in the Democratic primaries instead, so they could "pick their opponent" ... they believed it would be much easier to defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election.

The increase in the number of Democratic primary voters has nothing to do with the party weighting system now. Party weighting comes from questions asked during current national polls, not from primary voter statistics.

However, it is possible that some republicans continue to answer "Democrat" or "Liberal" while participating in a national poll when asked which party they support or what their political views are. But in order for that to work, they would need to continue to do this on a massive scale. They're not nearly as organized as that would require!

I can see why the McCain campaign picked Pennsylvania to make their last stand ... the republican party in that state is well-organized, tried and tested, and Undecided percentages for Pennsylvania are still above the national average. They believe they have a chance to win over almost all the Undecided voters and go negative enough to win 1% or 2% of Obama supporters as well. They'll be reminding voters of what Obama said in the primary regarding "Pennsylvanians clinging to guns and religion to cope" and use that as a wedge issue, with both McCain and Palin on the ground there.

Will it work? We'll have to wait and see. My guess is that it won't, or it won't work enough.

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

39. Good afternoon :)

Lost internet for a while due to a mix-up with Time Warner.

:hi: :bounce:

[phrigndumass]

41. I hate it when that happens ...

Hope you're able to have a seamless transition to the new house! Imagine having to rely on real people for entertainment instead of the internet, lol :7

:hi: :hi: :bounce: