McCain is down to putting his hopes on the River Card

[kennetha]

If this were a poker game -- in particular a game of Texas Hold 'em -- Obama would be they guy with the commanding lead going into the river card. After the Flop, (the two conventions) the two hands were perhaps closer to even, with Obama's hand being stronger, but not completely dominant.

But the turn card (Palin gone sour, the wall street meltdown) decisively strengthened Obama's hand and weakened McCain's. At this point, if this really were a poker game, a prudent player in McCain's position would simply fold his hand and save his remaining chips for another battle. But unfortunately for McCain, politics ain't poker. He's got to push all of his chips in and play his hand out to the river.

For his " river card" he's got only two ways out and many, many ways to lose. He must either flip Pennsylvania (while winning FL, OH, NC, MO, and Nevada) or grab back VA -- which is pretty unlikely -- and take away one other state like CO or NM that looks strong for Obama (and steal one electoral vote from Maine).

His odds are VERY LONG. Assuming that his campaign is not run by utter and complete morons -- a treacherous assumption, I know -- they must know what they are up against. And again, if this were like a poker game where you could fold one hand and wait for another, that's what they do. They are probably 20 -1 underdogs at best. But again, just as there is no crying in baseball, so there is no folding in politics.

[Marsala]

1. So McCain is going for the inside straight while Obama is sitting on three of a kind?

Good odds.

[blue-kite]

2. For me Obama already has a straight flush...

McCain is hoping for a box and needs two cards of two only.

[lapfog_1]

3. Obama is pushing all-in for $157,000,000.

and is holding a set of Aces... while poor John is sitting on two small pair.