"A credible path to electoral victory" is something that every campaign needs

[featherman]

to keep the interest of the media and supporters going. Odds are that the campaign pros and number crunchers on the McCain staff are not so delusional that they think they can actually still win this thing overall. But for PR purposes the campaign needs a "credible path" to keep up appearances and hopefully a cash flow into the campaign (through the RNC). The Clinton campaign found themselves in a similar situation in the primaries after Wisconsin.

The Pennsylvania gambit is what it is... an attempt to maintain credibility over the next 13 days.

If a reporter asks a strategist "Come on... how can you win this really?"

The insider answer would be: "Hang on to traditional red states NC and VA, win Ohio, and flip PA and you have an electoral majority even if you lose IA, NM, CO, NV and even MO"
And that would be credible enough.

[quiet.american]

1. Makes sense. Thanks for this insight. nt

[writes3000]

2. Exactly right. I'm surprised more here haven't caught on.

Did they listen to Chuck Todd and Morning Joe's brief stint of honesty this morning?

Hello?

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I pretty much agree, though I think it's similar to Clinton post-Indiana/North Carolina.

I think McCain realizes he has no viable path to victory, but you never give up. Even Mondale didn't give up. No candidate gives up. So look like you're fighting and when you lose, you can at least say, "hey, I tried."

[Bicoastal]

4. EXACTLY what a professional pollster just said over at 538.com.

It's a morale booster for the campaign on what might otherwise be suicide-worthy news--no money left in Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. They have to give the APPEARANCE that this is all part of the plan, and that they know what they're doing. Otherwise, this thing could turn into a landslide of Clinton|Dole or even Reagan|Mondale proportions.

So why Pennsylvania and not--say--New Hampshire? Pennsylvania has many advantages for a bluff--a quick win in the electoral vote, a state Barack LOST in the primaries, etc--but most importantly, it's geographically CLOSE to states they really ARE going to try to win, like West Virginia and Ohio.

I guarantee you they're actually going to do more campaigning in those other states than in Pennsylvania.

[kennetha]

8. delete message

[TheDonkey]

13. I also think it may be about them being broke. Use PA as a stomping ground

to get into the OH and WV markets too. Obama must pay attention though but the chances are soooo slim.

[tblue]

5. So they're doing this 'just for looks.'

I guess when you think about it, you can't exactly throw in your cards with 2 weeks left to go. You gotta look like you have a plan, right? You can't just say, "Oh well, I quit."

[WCGreen]

6. They still need to raise money to pay the bills...

[tblue]

7. Ahhhhhhhh. Now I get it.

I think my brain is tired. Really, I appreciate your insight.

[kennetha]

9. They are trying to win this on the "river card."

Their river card is either flipping Pennsylvania (and winning FL, OH, NC, MO, and Nevada) or grabbing back VA -- which is pretty unlikely -- and adding one other state like CO or NM + one electoral vote from Maine.

Their odds are VERY LONG. But them are the odds they got. They are not, I suspect, complete morons. So they know what they are facing. The flop was terrible for them and the turn made them even bigger underdogs. But unlike in hold 'em, they've got no option to fold. They must play this through until the river card is dealt. They are trying what few moves they've got left to ensure that river card comes up favorable to them.

THey are probably a 14-1 to 20-1 dog and would definitely fold if this was poker. But it ain't poker. It's politics. And there's no folding in politics.

[featherman]

12. Exactly right... a ridiculous inside straight if you will... with this strategy McCain

has to run: FL, VA, NC, OH, and flip PA but that does bring him to 270 (includes holding all other peripheral red states like MT, ND, IN, WV, etc too, of course).

It's his ONLY credible path but at least it appears to be a credible path and that is all they need to keep talking the talk down the home stretch.

[crankychatter]

10. The MSM needs to be BOMBARDED with this line of thinking...

ask questions about it... talk to insiders...

use ALL their resources... pull out the stops

I want Matthews to pick it up as his favorite new topic... and GRILL every body on EARTH about it

I want it to spill over into that Road to the Whitehouse, tool's show... so even HE has to cover it.

[knixphan]

11. Ditto!

I want the McCain campaign torpedoed.

[No Elephants]

14. THE MEDIA KNOW. They knew weeks ago.