Dire straits: Why McSame's PA gambit won't work, even if it works

[GrizzlyMan]

I just ran an electoral college scenario on CNN that shows that Obama can LOSE Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina and still win the election.

To accomplish this Obama would need to win NV (5), CO (9), NM (5), IA (7), VA(13). This, along with the Kerry states gives him a 270-268 win. Obama is ahead in all 5 states.

Now nobody wants this scenario, but it CLEARLY demonstrates how much the electoral math is working against McSame in almost every conceivable way. Not that we need a reminder, but he's in big trouble folks.

[Marsala]

1. Obama also needs Virginia, right?

Colorado and Virginia are very important no matter what.

[GrizzlyMan]

2. Yes, I forgot to add VA did it on the edit.

[Blondiegrrl]

3. That's putting it in perspective. I think we're in good shape. n/t

[calimary]

4. But let's NOT get complacent - anyway!

This isn't won yet. We won't have this in the bag til the fat Brokaw, or Williams, or Schieffer, or Gibson, or Blitzer sings.

[Blondiegrrl]

5. I know ... I know. Geesh. n/t

[calimary]

6. I just remind EVERYBODY about that now.

Just call me paranoid. But I've seen two presidential election cycles in a row - stolen out from under us.

[Blondiegrrl]

7. I guess I'm a little testy because I've heard that phrase so often here.

I've never been one of those who automatically assumes we'll win. I *think* we'll win, but nothing is certain but death and taxes.

I'm tired. Time to hit the hay.

[calimary]

12. No offense taken. I think we're ALL weary. I can't wait for this whole ordeal to be over -

and that could be talking strictly about the election (that's dragged on for TWO YEARS NOW), or the colossal madness that's been the last almost-eight years of the bush/cheney blight, OR even the plague of anti-Americanism - that ronald reagan brought in with him: the CONservative curse upon our beloved land. That's when the seeds of this miserable shit-era started sprouting, having been planted years earlier following the implosion of the Goldwater campaign.

[instantkarma]

8. I've got Obama up 401-137.

.

[uponit7771]

9. VA is important, why didn't Kerry go to northern VA? hmmmm

[amborin]

10. Nevada

makes me nervous

it's been red last few elections

it's been red or leaning red most of this one

mccain has big gambling ties to the casino moguls and many parts of the state are fundie

[StevieM]

11. If McCain could somehow win PA then I think he is likely to also win Nevada. The basis of his

strategy is that if somehow factors enable him to win Pennsylvania, then those same factors would likely also enable victories in FL, OH, MO, NC and NV. I think he figures that those five states are more likely to go Republican then VA, CO or NH. So if he can narrow the gap nationally then he can run the table on the easier five and still lose the more difficult three. Then he needs to flip a big blue state--he's picked PA. Also, the last poll I saw from Nevada showed a tie race there. I think it will move along with Florida and Ohio, one direction or the other.

But right now Barack looks really good in Pennsylvania.

Steve

[woolldog]

13. I don't think that's true Stevie,

PA and NV are very different states culturally and demographically. For one thing PA is a lot older than NV. NV also has a lot of hispanics.

[Undercurrent]

14. We WILL win,

but remember the Alamo New Hampshire!

We have to keep up the pressure. No rest for the weary until we put this away.