History repeats itself

[chiefofclarinet]

To those of you that are worried about McCain's push into Pennsylvania, I have two words for you.

Rudolph Giuliani.

Yes, Mr. Nine/Eleven. He ignored Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. He put all his electoral eggs in one basket, (Florida) and got trounced.

So, with McCain going "all-in" into Pennsylvania, like the gambler he is, he just emulating the "great" Giuliani. His thinking is, "Why bother with Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa when Pennsylvania is enough?"

However, with Pennsylvania staying solid blue, Virginia going solidly blue, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Missouri leaning blue, and Indiana, West Virginia, Georgia, North Dakota, and Montana moving towards blue, I think McCain is going to look rather foolish come 11-4.

[chiefofclarinet]

1. Kick up for another 15 minutes....

[firedupdem]

2. I think his campaign is clueless sometimes which is actually a good

thing for us!

[chiefofclarinet]

3. Sometimes??!!

Looking at the decisions he has made (the grocery store photo-op, not choosing a vice president until the last minute, and miserably failing by picking Palin, his poor performances at the debates, and pulling out of state after state), I wonder how he got this far?

[DrToast]

4. Not exactly a good analogy...

Guiliani was hoping to gain momentum from Florida. There's no momentum to be had after 11/4.

McCain is going all in on PA because all of the other options are equally bleak.

McCain is simply choosing which crappy path they want to pursue.

[chiefofclarinet]

9. True, though I didn't extend the analogy that far

My point is that Giuliani went all in on one state, which is remarkably similar to McCain's strategy for Pennsylvania. From past experience, I think McCain is making a mistake. On the other hand, no matter what, McCain is making a mistake.

[TheDonkey]

5. I agree this is another "hail mary" desperation play. going all in blind

NOT good strategy and just another example of McCain's poor judgment.

[chiefofclarinet]

12. I think calling it a Hail Mary would be implying it has a chance of working

Really, Pennsylvania? McCain withdraws out of Michigan and even some of Bush's 2004 states to go to Pennsylvania?! Where Obama leads by at least 10 points now?? (OK, there was one poll out of the eight in October were Obama is leading by "only" 8 points.)

Geez, I thought they couldn't get dumber than their pick of Caribou Barbie. I guess not...

[demwing]

6. Hmm. Who was the last Dem to sweep the EC map?

Who fared better - Johnson or Roosevelt? And how well do you expect Obama to do this time, and in 2012?

[chiefofclarinet]

10. I have two views on this

Optimistically, we will win all the states I mentioned plus NE-1 and NE-2. 403 for Obama to 115 for McCain. (Yes, this is a bit ridiculous.)

Pessimistically, we will Kerry's states, plus IA, NM, CO, and VA. 286 EV's for Obama. I am throwing Virginia in this because I think Warner will help up-ticket with Obama.

I'm not going to even try for 2012, because 4 years a long time politically. Who would have thought in 2004 that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama would fight for the Democratic nomination?

About your other question: Johnson beat Goldwater 486-52. (God, that map looks amazing!) FDR won 472-59, 523-8 (LOL!), 449-82, and 432-99. I doubt Obama will have a mandate like these, but I doubt it will be close.

[chiefofclarinet]

11. Stupid computer did a double post...

[AndyTiedye]

7. McCain is In PA Because they Have PAPERLESS DRE VOTING MACHINEZ!

[No Elephants]

8. Why do Democratic Governors still allow them?

[AndyTiedye]

15. Rendell Has Actually Been Against Us on Getting a Paper Trail

He is not on our side, despite having a "D" after his name.
I think the Evil Empire must have something on him.

[chiefofclarinet]

13. It may not matter

If we flip Florida and they flip Pennsylvania, we are 6 points better than before. Even with just IA and NM and the rest of Kerry's states, that is 270, just enough to win. Anything over that is just lattice crust on the pie.

[renate]

14. exactly n/t

[Captiosus]

16. If McCain "pulls off" (read: steals) this gambit

I'm ready to go to the mat.

This is a 5000:1 long shot. Having to win all the 'toss ups', plus retain Virginia, and turn Pennsylvania? Yeah, right. If it happens, I fear for what will happen on 11/5.