Zogby 10/22: O52, M42 (O+2)

[BzaDem]

A caveat: This is Zogby, which is not the most accurate pollster (to say the least). But this is still a great result:

"Pollster John Zogby: “Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”"

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1604

[Jennicut]

1. Wow, did Zomby actually get his head out of his butt?

These results are pretty fascinating though. Obama, per lots of polls put there already and now this one is leading in all the key groups. The Reagan surge is interesting because lots of people thought that could be McLame but I think its too late for him now, Obama's support is solidifying.

[WCGreen]

2. He doesn't have the money or the time to pull it off....

[lessthanjake]

3. I wouldnt put too much stock in this

Zogby's polls are anything but stable. He will probably have it back to Obama +4 in like two days. It would be a lot more telling if Rasmussen had Obama at +10 because his polls do not have outlier days. However, what I think is the best thing to take from this is that Obama is ahead by 27 percent amongst those who have already voted. That means hes getting 63.5% of the early vote, compared to 36.5% for McCain. Most estimates say that about one-third of the nation will vote early. If that early voting trend holds, then McCain will actually have to beat Obama by 13.3% nationally on election day to win the popular vote.

[fujiyama]

4. I just don't understand how these polls can have such wild swings

I mean, it is nice to see that his numbers are in line with most other polls' numbers, but for some reason, Zogby doesn't strike me as terribly credible.

[AzNick]

5. The numbers are tightening alright...

WTF