Can someone please talk me down about Pennsylvania?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

I thought Obama was leading in the state by double digits, and yet McCain thinks that PA will determine the election. Ed Rendell makes a statement about how he's worried about Obama's chances and that Obama should go back to PA. Then, Murtha makes a fucking stupid, bone-headed remark.

What the hell is going on in PA? Is Obama in trouble there??!?!?!

Do voters vote on electronic voting machines, and if they do, is Rendell doing anything at all to stop voter fraud; or, will he blame the Bradley Effect if McCoward pulls it off?

[Beaverhausen]

1. read this thread and relax

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7550013

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

2. PA will determine the election. But not the way McCain hopes.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

3. What floor are you on?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

4. I'm not high yet. But, I'm working hard in VA and live in MD. If I need to go to PA to help out...

then I'm willing to go...

[The Wielding Truth]

5. McCain fixed it . Look at this . It won't help him.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x221386

He is not fit to be President.

[BrklynLiberal]

21. WOw! That is so pathetic.

[book_worm]

6. Thanks to Rachel everybody is saying "talk me down" now, ok...

Most polls show Obama up by better than ten points. Since McCain is giving up everywhere else and needs to take a big blue state to have any chance of winning he has to put on a show that PA is still winnable.

[Cha]

11. Not only that..mccain thugs are now in Philly and

Pittsburgh for operation Voter Suppression in the big PA cities..this is what they're talking about from those who've been on the ground in Philly.

It was reported on DU that palin is living in PA now..they think they're going to steal it.

[silverojo]

27. It's her pet name for "concern trolling"

One reason I can't stand Rachel, is the way she always spreads fear--her "Talk me down!" is nothing more than giving legs to RW talking points by repeating them out of fear.

At least KO calls people on bullshit in the proper angry state--as if to say, STFU, we know you're lying sacks of crap!

While Obama's spreading HOPE, she spreads fear, and that's not what we need now. You can shoot down RW talking points without acting like you're afraid that they're going to come true.

Keith Olberman's the best! :patriot:

[Curtland1015]

7. He chose PA simply because he has no other choice.

That's it and that's all. PA is his last stand. It's all he's got.

AND... Even if McCain wins it there is absolutely no guarantee it will get him the election. It's still going to be very hard for him. He NEEDS it to win, but even if he wins it, he still needs to win a lot more.

[skids]

8. No early voting there. That's why...

...they are hoping for congested polls, long lines. So they are spreading rumor that internal polling isn't matching the media polls, to run the expectations game.

Obama doesn't need to visit there so much as pour a lot of GOTV and voter protection in. However visits cannot hurt. And I'm sure there will be more.

[melonkali]

15. No early voting, can't recount=ripe for repub picking. As for PA's dem governor . . .

Who has NATIONAL (Federal) supervision over elections in all states?

I'm very, very worried about this.

[jberryhill]

9. We're doomed.... Jump. /nt

[Clio the Leo]

10. Don't talk me down, just help me to understand......

I dont understand McCain's logic.

I mean, if we start with the assumption that he plans to keep all of Bush's 2004 states, then he doesn't need PA to win. So this must mean he's assuming he won't keep all of Bush's states (DUR!!)

What states is he giving up to Obama that he can afford to lose and, as long as he wins PA, still win?

Help the dumb blonde girl out here. I dont get it.

[arKansasJHawk]

12. Iowa, for one ...

Colorado for another. There are at least two more I can't grab off the top of my head, but I'm sure someone else will.

The point is: There are SEVERAL 2004 Bush states that's McCain sees slipping away. It appears, for the moment at least (we've already seen how scattershot and undisciplined the McCain team is) that they think their best shot is to somehow steal PA.

As goofy and wacked-out as their strategy has been of late, however, the McCain campaign has now become like the weather in Kansas: if you don't like it, just wait a couple of days and it will change.

[Clio the Leo]

17. And so is it illogical to assume.....

that Obama would ONLY win Iowa (plus the Kerry states?) Or North Carolina? (which may be the other state you're thinking of.)

I can see FL and OH being a contest .... and I realize anything could happen between now and then, but it seems to me, as far as the toss-up states go, the way one goes is the way they'll all go.

Am I being overly optimistic?

[Mz Pip]

13. If Kerry could win PA

then I'm not that concerned about Obama's chances.

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. Here's his logic: he's FUCKED and he's gonna lose

There's nothing he can do now. This is Giuliani making his "Last Stand in Florida.'

It's a fucking joke. I only wish we didn't have so many softique panic-mongers on this board flipping out over every little thing.

Need to be "talked down." Fucking JUMP. You're killing US.

[alcibiades_mystery]

14. Go get a fucking therapist

God, some people can't win for winning.

Go hide under a desk.

Shit.

[HughMoran]

18. Run for your life - they'll be eating your kids soon!

RUN!!!!!

[KingFlorez]

19. In 2004, there were quite a few who said Bush could win it

He didn't win it and McCain won't either, Pennsylvania is blue, it's been blue since 1992 and it will stay that way.

[WinkyDink]

25. Thank you! Dang, it's not easy being a PA Dem! McCAIN IS DELUSIONAL if he thinks he can win PA!!!!

[treestar]

20. Just because McCrypt says something

you have to be talked down?

McCrypt can and will say ANYTHING!!!!! You cannot let it affect you. BS is BS. Merely because a person says something does not mean it has a chance in hell of happening or being true!!!!

[amborin]

22. we absolutely must

win Penn

mccain is following advice laid out in a ny times article last week, showing a strategy for a narrow rethug win

the strategy called for mccain to concentrate on winning ohio, florida, missouri, nevada, and penn, to win the GE

it urged him to pull his resources from all other states

we MUST win Penn

and Obama should go back there and campaign more to ensure we do not lose it

[grantcart]

23. its a trap for McCain to waste his time and money in a fruitless effort

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7550042&mesg_id=7550042

[stillcool]

24. I can't talk you down...

PA is one of the few states left that vote on DRE's, most without paper. ACORN is being sued in PA. Against this backdrop the fact that Rendell publicized that Obama, and the Clinton's need to come back, does not leave me with a good feeling. But on the upside..all this is a known, known.

[tigereye]

26. Obama has tons of offices here...

and you can't move here in Pittsburgh without falling over Obama volunteers -and I think it's fairly safe to assume that is true in many other parts of the state. Obama has a lot of money to spend.


We are working hard here to GOTV and I believe we have registered many times the number of Rep voters. I even saw a lot of Obama signs in the small town I grew up in, which tends to go Rep. People are disgusted.


Stop worrying and go out and help in your state, wherever that may be.

[aaaaaa5a]

28. Here's why McCain is in PA..

Obama is set to carry all of the Kerry states, plus the red states of Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico. That alone makes him President.


CO, NM, IA equal 21 electoral votes. McCain must make that up. Now look at the map. What blue state makes up 21 electoral votes?

It's easier to try and win one big state than it is to win 3 smaller states when you are down about equally in all of them.

Plus, as was mentioned earlier, PA does not have early voting. So he has a full 2 weeks to turn the state around.


It's interesting that WHEN Obama wins PA, he can win the Presidency WITHOUT FL, OH, NC, VA, IN, MO or NV if his leads hold in IA, CO and NM!

[Jennicut]

29. Don't worry about Pa. Rendell ain' t the brightest bulb.

Seriously, if Obama was worried about PA he would be there every chance he could get as without PA we lose the election. Kerry won there by 2%, Obama will win by more than that.

[amborin]

30. read today's ny times discussing their

internals

[aaaaaa5a]

33. Thanks!

Good NY times article.


Everyone relax! According to the NY Times, even McCain's internals have him down 7 to 8 points. That's a lot to make up in just 2 weeks.

[Blondiegrrl]

31. Look at it this way: PA is McCain's last stand. If he loses PA, he loses the election.

Obama, OTOH, has enough blue states in his column that even in the unlikely event he should lose PA, he could still beat the pants off McCain.

[Juche]

32. registered democrats outnumber republicans by 1.2 million in PA

4.4 million vs. 3.2 million.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20081017_Pa__Democrats_now_outnumber_GOP_by_almost_1_2_million.html

Compare that to 2004 when the dems only had a 600,000 registration majority and Kerry won the state 51-48.


Although in a legitimate election Obama would win PA, the long lines and various forms of vote fraud could be a problem. PA has a secretary of state (Pedro Cortés) who was appointed by Rendell, so he is not going to be a Blackwell or Harris.

Even if somehow the democrats lose PA and lose it in a legitimate election it is 21 electoral votes. Virginia & MIssouri make up 24. NC has 15, FL has 27, OH has 20, etc. Even if somehow the dems lose that state they can still win with FL or OH.

If Obama loses PA somehow and all those 1.2 million democratic voters either stay home, don't vote or vote GOP then Obama can win OH or FL to make it up. Or he can win NC or VA which combined with Nevada will give him almost 20 electoral votes.

Point is I'm not too worried. Obama is up by about 9.7 points in PA.