Pennsylvania will decide the election

[blueinindiana]

Whoever wins PA will win the election.

Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Florida will most likely go McCain

Obama will not be able to turn enough Red States blue from 2004 to secure the nomination without PA.



PA is GROUND ZERO!

[DarthDem]

1. Well, If It's That Simple

Then consider the election over. In Obama's favor. And yes, I'm in Pennsylvania.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. And you know this... how?

I love these ABSOLUTELY POSITIVE predictions... :rofl:

[iceman66]

3. Let's hope not.

Florida is not looking too bad at the moment.

[Danger Mouse]

4. I'd say all four of the states you named are within reach for Obama.

PA is absolutely critical for McCain.
Not so much for Obama.

[Left Is Write]

5. To secure the nomination? I think he's got the nomination locked.

[WeDidIt]

6. PTTTTHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

I don't concede any of the four you name.

[Ikonoklast]

7. Nope.

But thanks for playing.

[Marsala]

8. Nah. There's a strong chance that we'll get North Carolina and/or Missouri

But if we somehow lost Pennsylvania, we probably would be doing very lousy in the battleground states. So your point stands. Pennsylvania will decide the election, and so we have a 90% or better chance of winning.

[demokatgurrl]

9. Can you elaborate? Source? Data? n/t

[Motown_Johnny]

18. kinda hard to source speculation.. but I assume it is simply the existing EV map plus McCain pulling

out of Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa.


So. It would seem that PA is the key (stone state)

[tekisui]

10. You are way off.

Obama can win without PA. But, he will win PA, and the election.

McCain could win PA and still lose, but he won't.

[Motown_Johnny]

11. It seems that the main concern among DUers over PA is that the paperless voting machines can be

"hacked" so that McCain or his repug thugs can steal the state and hence the presidency

[BumRushDaShow]

15. The Philadelphia machines produce a paper printout. n/t

[DarthDem]

21. I'm Tired of this Particular Concern

The Ed Rendell machine is in full control of this state. The Secretary of State (actually called the Secretary of the Commonwealth) is Pedro Cortes, a young, energetic Latino Dem. I'm not sure who's plannning to hack these machines, but it won't be easy with these guys in charge. Concern unnnnnnnnnnnnnfounded!

[meow2u3]

34. Whoever might be hacking those machines

will either get caught or be flipping votes from McLame to Obama :evilgrin:

[Thrill]

27. What happened in 06 then?

[Motown_Johnny]

30. I'm not saying I agree with it, I was summarizing

Honestly, I don't know enough about it to form an opinion

[Bucky]

12. Nope. Frankly, Obama could lose PA & still absorb the loss.

I don't expect him to lose there, but it's not a game changer by itself. McCain needs Pennsylvania for his double-bank-shot chance at winning. Obama has a little more wiggle room than that.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Maybe not, but Obama will carry Nevada.

And if he does that, he wins 270-268.

[DarthDem]

23. That's Kerry (- PA) + IA, NM, CO, VA, NV

. . . just for clarification. :-) Right? Not an implausible scenario. Actually, the least plausible part of it is losing Pennsylvania.

[Drunken Irishman]

36. Yup!

[Top Cat]

14. We can still win without PA.....

[featherman]

16. Nah... so way off not worth answering. Silly stuff but glad you're concerned

[DaveinMD]

17. Obama

is going to win North Carolina and Missouri as well. Really, I think the only states on the list he'll lose are Ohio and Florida.

And regardless, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia are enough without PA.

[redstate_democrat]

19. Missouri and Ohio are definitely Obama's.

BET ON THAT.

[Capt. America]

39. I live in Ohio and I wouldn't count on that! Most of Ohio is Northern Kentucky.

Also, I think McCain will win Missouri by less than 10000 votes.

[Zynx]

20. That's if you assume a nationally tied election.

I don't. Obama wins 370 EVs.

[ShadowLiberal]

22. It's too soon to say those states are lost to Obama, most polls there are within the margin of error

[Cali_Democrat]

24. You're wrong. n/t

[Thrill]

25. I don't buy the Missouri is likely going to McCain.

and I live in NC. I think that it will be too close to call for a while Election Night.

[kevin881]

26. no. VA will go Obama, as will NC and FL. PA won't matter, though it will go Obama as well. -nt

[debbierlus]

28. Well, then put a fork in it, it's done.

Blue state. Ain't going to McCain...

[RollWithIt]

29. 1 hr lines in Bonita Springs Florida on day 1 AND day 2 of early voting DISAGREE

This election is going to be a landslide.

[SoonerPride]

31. Obama is gonna win 373 Electoral Votes

his is going to be an historic/landslide election.

The ground game, money game, organization effort, mood of the country, energized and rabid base, demoralized opposition, 8 year malaise, economic downturn, all of it, every single thing points to a fucking blowout.

Pennsylvania will go for Obama.
Florida will go for Obama.
Virginia will go for Obama.
Colorado will go for Obama.
New Hampshire will go for Obama.
Ohio will go for Obama.
Indiana will go for Obama.
Nevada will go for Obama.
Minnesota will go for Obama.
North Carolina will go for Obama.

It is over. Enjoy the next two weeks.

[DeepBlueDem]

42. Ive said this since last year.No matter who gets the Dem nom

Hillary or Obama, Florida is going Blue..

[Meshuga]

32. What about Virginia? PA is useless to McCain without Virginia.

And I feel good about Obama's chances in VA.

[Chloroplast]

33. McCain is giving up on everything for PA for one solitary reason.

If he can win PA, he'd try and challenge 2004 GOP states that went to Obama. Turning smaller states like CO and NM back to red is easier if he's won a consistently blue state that's heavy in electoral votes.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

35. Huh? nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

37. Pfffffft...PA is McCain's only desperate chance

And he has no chance in PA: Zero.

Only idiots believe McCain can win PA at this point. Idiots and concern trolls.

It's like saying Obama's only chance is Georgia. Oh no, wait, no it isn't. Obama is closer to Mccain in georgia than Mccain is in PA.

This is just dumb: dumb Democrats falling for the same old Rovian "We're gonna win California and New Jersey" hype. It's stupid. McCain's finished.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

38. This race will not be a tie, so forget it. nt

[rug]

40. Well, then, it's a good thing I'm here.

:patriot:

[Supersedeas]

41. V--i-r-g-i-n-i-a

[treestar]

43. Then Obama is going to win

he is going to win PA.