News outlets sweat over exit polling 'accuracy' (preparing the masses for a McCain shocker win?)

[Divine Discontent]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081021/pl_politico/14778;_ylt=Aml7tXL_VHNWZprjZcYoR5OzvtEF


POLITICO (cough cough) has a story out telling how the Obama supporters are just sooooooooo excited about Barack, that we're over stimulating the results with our exuberance to be willing to be heard... I wanna vomit.




David Paul Kuhn Politico – Mon Oct 20, 9:07 pm ET


Voters line up beside empty voting booths inside the Acres Homes Mulit-Service AP – Voters line up beside empty voting booths inside the Acres Homes Mulit-Service Center to cast their votes …

Media outlets are preparing for the possibility that their Election Day surveys could be skewed because of overstated support for Barack Obama, largely because of the enthusiasm of his supporters.

While exit polling is a notoriously inexact science—early exit poll results suggested John Kerry would be elected president in 2004—the introduction of several new variables, ranging from the zeal of Obama’s supporters to his racial background to widespread early voting, is causing concerns among those who charged with conducting the surveys and the networks that will be reporting them.

“It’s in some ways the flip side of non-cooperation,” said one pollster involved in preparations, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, “It’s over-cooperation by certain people.”

Unlike a traditional poll that asks voters who they intend to support, exit polls are taken outside the polling place immediately after voters have cast their ballots. The interviewing begins when the polls open in the morning and lasts throughout the day until shortly before the polls close. <snip>

MORE AT www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable

[TahitiNut]

1. GOTV! GOTV! Vote early and often! GOTV! Even a landslide isn't enough. CRUSH 'em!

GOTV! :patriot:

[Divine Discontent]

5. GOTV indeed. I'm pressuring my friends to make sure they vote

not everyone is like us. and I'm sorry - this POLITICO piece is specifically put out there for a REASON - they want to give the impresssion that GOPers won't talk about who they vote for, but DEMS will - I'm sorry - but the people I hear most of the time talking about their candidate in "look at me" fashion is the annoying right wing types who scream nasty things about Obama at Gov. Pain's rallies.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. In a close election (1-2 points), exit polls aren't very solid evidence of victory.

Even exit polls have MOE. It isn't a conspiracy by the networks, it's just reality. Exit polls aren't 100% accurate and if an exit poll shows the race within 1-5 points, it's possible the person who leads in the exit poll doesn't win, or wins by a larger/smaller margin.

Ignore exit poll data. Instead, look at demographic breakdowns of voters and what their concerns are. This is how you'll tell whether Obama is doing extremely well on election night or struggling.

[nc4bo]

3. What in the hell is "over-cooperative by certain people" supposed to mean, exactly??

Either people vote for O or they vote for Troll.

:wtf: are they talking about?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. People don't have to talk to exit pollsters. It's voluntary.

If one sides voters are more eager, for whatever reason, to do the survey it can skew exit polls.

[Thorandmjolnir]

6. Why the hell does the pollster have to

talk "on the condition of anonymity,"?

[Divine Discontent]

8. "involved in preparations"

having that be said just before "condition of anonymity" makes me very distrustful. Would this even be a STORY if it was McCain who was exciting and not cryptkeeper like, who inspired such broad appeal???? I think not!

Good catch!

[always_saturday]

7. This is backasswards! This makes no sense!

[TexasObserver]

9. Why don't they worry about the vote COUNTING?! There's the problem.

We never had a problem with exit polls until we had a problem with wholesale stolen votes.

[high density]

10. Why do they trot this out every year?

If they are so worried about the accuracy of these polls, then let's just stop doing them.

[berni_mccoy]

11. "While exit polling is a notoriously inexact science" -- They lost me there

Exit Polling IS an exact science. You can measure the error.

[Divine Discontent]

14. see, there's so many questionable comments and points made in their story

that it makes me very distrustful. It IS an exact science, hence the margin of error, they're simply trying to give some BS line as to why Obama would be shown ahead on ELECTION DAY based on this type of polling that's been done for many years, and why the final numbers are going to show McSame winning by a point or two, and how we should accept it's just because Obama supporters are more "excited" about their candidate....

:mad:

[dbmk]

15. Not quite

It is not an exact science, in terms of portrayning the end result, because it can't predict the result with 100% (or close to) certainty. For it to be an exact science you should be able to tell the result given the input. But exit polling only samples the input. And the sampling is not assured to give a correct picture of the input.

By your logic ordinary polling would also be an exact science.

And it is true that if one side is eager to share who they voted for, the polling might be skewed.
Happens at every election here in Denmark, where the xenophobic nationalistic party is underrepresented in the exit polls, because people are not as likely to admit that they voted for them or even answer the question.

What exit polling is on the other hand, is precise. Its generally considered extremely reliable with a low MOE. Under normal conditions.

[crankychatter]

12. without covering the horrific discrepancies that revealed fraud in 04

they've been harping on this periodically for four years

now we only get exit polling broken down in demographics... never the full meal deal

this is dead on accurate and frightening

[4lbs]

13. Early voting results seem to be matching the current crop of polls.

So.....

[truedelphi]

16. On the bright side, the noxious headline writer over at the MainYahoo page

Posted this today:

Latest Election Polls and Coverage Candidates
Projected averages

McCain (R) 43.2%- -
Obama (D) 50.1%- -
Poll Averages


Projected Electoral Votes (270 needed)
McCain 167
Obama 344


I bet they had to have a couple of whiskeys done up neat to allow themselves to post that.

[Fly by night]

17. "... early exit poll results suggested John Kerry would be elected president in 2004..."

So did late exit poll results. It was only after the exit poll server "crashed" (sic) late in the evening that the exit poll results flipped to match the "reported" (really sic) result.

Why the corporate media doesn't know this by now is a mystery. Or maybe not such a mystery at all, based on the following quotes:
--------

"Never argue with a man whose job depends on not being convinced." H.L. Mencken

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." Upton Sinclair

[progressivebydesign]

18. Exit polling was always spot-on until GWB ran against Gore.

Now.. now that we have hackable machines, voter caging, and coordinated theft of votes and disenfranchisement, NOW the exit polls don't seem to match up.

The republican hacks at Politico are asking the wrong FUCKING question... It's not why are the exit polls wrong.. it's WHY ARE THE VOTE COUNTS WRONG????